Search found 341 matches

by Kevin K.
Sun Jun 13, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Best gold deal out there
Replies: 8
Views: 287

Re: Best gold deal out there

You may want to consider Bullionvault if holding physical gold rather than an ETF is essential. Nothing but good experience with them and they check all your boxes plus Harry Browne's recommendation to hold some assets outside your home country. Total costs (buying commission plus storage) very comp...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 25
Views: 1136

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Negative real interest rates to this degree (> 4%) are almost unprecedented in the post gold era, but we can look to the 1970s when real rates were negative (2-3%) and occasionally higher for short periods of time. The answer was that the PP did incredibly well in the 1970s because gold responded v...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 1
Views: 164

The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

Since there are several folks who post on these forums with a far better understanding of the bond market than I have I'm curious to hear your thoughts on the rule-of-thumb offered by Larry Swedroe that investors should generally look for an additional 20 basis points of yield for each additional ye...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Historical Periods of High Inflation: Interest Rates?
Replies: 11
Views: 312

Re: Historical Periods of High Inflation: Interest Rates?

This worthwhile post about measuring inflation and personal experience of it just arrive in my email inbox this morning (it's from one of the few finance/ER blogs I follow regularly): https://www.caniretireyet.com/personal-inflation-rate/ I think it's a good complement to D1984's insightful post abo...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 25
Views: 1136

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

It's great to see your name reappear on the forum ahrunforthehills! Your posts have been some of the best I've ever read here. Obviously it's not just the PP but the whole universe of low or reduced "fat tails" portfolios intended for retirees and others who can't handle deep or protracted drawdowns...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?
Replies: 55
Views: 999

Re: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?

A few comments I posted in a different discussion a few weeks ago regarding rising rates and potential impact on the PP. Some comments: 1. You constantly say that you think the kryptonite for the PP is rising rates. Maybe it will be, maybe it won't. But going to portfoliovisualizer or portfoliochar...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?
Replies: 55
Views: 999

Re: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?

There are a whole lot of portfolios that have only "worked" in times of declining or at least modestly positive real bond yields: not just the PP but Wellesley, the Larry Swedroe portfolio, all the Vanguard Retirement Income funds and many more. Harry Browne was brilliant but just like any other gr...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?
Replies: 55
Views: 999

Re: Does PP Only Work In Times of Declining Bond Yields?

There are a whole lot of portfolios that have only "worked" in times of declining or at least modestly positive real bond yields: not just the PP but Wellesley, the Larry Swedroe portfolio, all the Vanguard Retirement Income funds and many more. Harry Browne was brilliant but just like any other gre...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 25
Views: 1136

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Yes to everything sophie said, along with saying that delaying taking SS as you're planning on doing is also a great tax move, and that (depending on your age and objectives) moving cash into iBonds at the 10K limit each year can also, over time, be a great tax move since you can hold them without p...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 25
Views: 1136

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Hi barrett, This Kitces article on why it isn't necessarily preferable to hold bonds in tax-advantaged accounts may be helpful: https://www.kitces.com/blog/asset-location-the-new-wealth-management-value-add-for-optimal-portfolio-design/ As I mentioned, I'm running a slightly modified (i.e. shorter-d...
by Kevin K.
Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 25
Views: 1136

Re: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Thanks Hal for your comments! Yeah, I don't have the stomach for 65% shares, 35% gold either. I mean let's face it, if one could tolerate that kind of volatility then something more mainstream like Jonathan Clement's simple solution (65-70% global equities, the rest "bonds" in the form of half short...
by Kevin K.
Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world
Replies: 25
Views: 1136

Withdrawal rates and size of nest egg needed in current negative real interest rate world

Given the level of activity here in recent weeks and months I'm wondering if these forums have run their course, but thought I'd post this link just in case there are enough of us to generate some worthwhile discussion. This is a long and fairly intricate thread on Bogleheads and you've got to read ...
by Kevin K.
Thu May 13, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 4347

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Important to be clear about duration and also not to put too much faith in looking at LTT performance in the March 2020 rear view mirror. If you follow the PP gospel specs you're selling your 30 year bonds when they reach 25 years of remaining duration and buying new 30's. The cash meanwhile is in a...
by Kevin K.
Thu May 13, 2021 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 743

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

Thanks Tyler! Yes I have that link to those charts you so kindly did for us saved. So helpful!
by Kevin K.
Thu May 13, 2021 9:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 743

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

Regarding the Wellesley/Gold combo: historically (and admittedly it's a brief one since GLD debuted in 2004) the performance of this allocation and the GB have been extremely close: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2004&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastM...
by Kevin K.
Wed May 12, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 743

PP-Inspired Portfolios

While many who post on these forum are dyed-in-the-wool PP adherents (and I totally respect that choice) there are also (from what I can tell) a fair number of GB fans and many others who implement some but not all of the PP assets and/or percentages. I thought it'd be interesting to discuss real-wo...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 11, 2021 7:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 4347

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

I believe the market is pretty efficient -- well except for all the government intervention factors, of which I have little understanding. For what it's worth, according to the following two sites, there's a total of $14.8T of long-term Treasury bonds and notes outstanding, of which $4.3T (about 30...
by Kevin K.
Thu May 06, 2021 9:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 26
Views: 1285

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

There's nothing special about my local Tucson AZ credit union in terms of cash access. I could go in and get the daily ATM limit (2K?) every day if need be but considering that that's most of a month's living expenses for me as a frugal retiree it's plenty. You're talking about access to far larger ...
by Kevin K.
Wed May 05, 2021 10:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 84
Views: 3726

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

Screen Shot 2021-05-05 at 11.02.12 AM.png Actually, since I'm well into the drawdown phase, a portfolio of about 10% cash and 90% VTINX would seem to meet my needs and comfort level. Very possibly, but VTINX along with all of the other Vanguard Target Retirement and LifeStrategy funds has significa...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 04, 2021 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on
Replies: 84
Views: 3726

Re: Permanent Portfolio concept continues to live on

Good discussion. I don't think it's at all sacrilegeous to suggest that some things about the Permanent Portfolio may not in fact be permanent, while respecting Harry Browne's genius and applying some of his insights. Obviously a contrarian portfolio with such massive tracking error relative to the ...
by Kevin K.
Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 26
Views: 1285

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

So the question was about the institutional risk. I’m going to say that VG and Fido are too big to fail. If something takes one out, you will be relying on physical gold, silver, and crypto. I'd add Schwab to that list. It is indeed pretty much down to these three giant brokerages at this point, an...
by Kevin K.
Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)
Replies: 26
Views: 1285

Re: Institutional diversification (Fidelity worries)

Just adding my two cents here. No experience with Fidelity but decades with both Schwab and Vanguard. One does have to bear in mind that it's tax season (delayed, obviously, this year thanks to the filing date being pushed back) so all brokerages are very busy. In my view the main reason to have som...
by Kevin K.
Mon Apr 26, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?
Replies: 32
Views: 1573

Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

I think a lot of us are trying to get a sense of what the current "new normal" of massive QE, unprecedented low interest rates and sky-high U.S. stock market valuations means for the PP and other defensive allocations going forward. Going back to the original post, what do we mean by "safe haven"? F...
by Kevin K.
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash
Replies: 33
Views: 1884

Re: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash

If you believe FDIC insurance is as good as treasuries (I do), T-Mobile Money is offering an online savings account that pays 1.0%. The only drawback is there is a $3000/day electronic transfer limit, but you can avoid that by initiating the transfers at the other institution. I set it up with Fide...
by Kevin K.
Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:53 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash
Replies: 33
Views: 1884

Re: Best Low Cost ETF for Cash

SCHO's YTD return is -.05%. BIL is -.02%. I can get +.05% just stashing cash in savings at Schwab Bank, .35% in an NCUA-insured savings account at my local credit union or (best of all - by far - 3.54% on iBonds (albeit with a paltry 10K purchase limit). In short it seems to me the days of substitut...