Also perhaps of interest is this new post from Ben Carlson on how much slicing and dicing helps vs. KISS:

https://obliviousinvestor.com/asset-all ... snt-magic/

I like Paul Merriman and certainly spent years owning a complex, Merriman Ultimate (see Portfolio Charts) slice-and-dice portfolio after reading tons of stuff about modern portfolio theory and factor investing. But the problem IMHO with Paul's arguments is he (like so many others) is basing his reco...

Good article on SCV fund choices here: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/small-cap-value-etf/ For what little it's worth I was splitting SCV half-and-half between VBR and AVUV but decided to just stick with VBR in the interests of simplicity. It's true that VBR is really more of a small/mid blend co...

GOVT looks like a really good ETF; thanks for letting us know about it. I really like the fact that it automatically rebalances its holdings by market cap so that the effective duration changes according to the market. I like your phrase "chaos asset" for gold, and I suppose that would also apply to...

Thanks barrett and Smith1776 for your thoughtful comments. I think the allocation in the ATP makes a great deal of sense. Intermediate duration has historically been the risk:return sweet spot for bonds; it's just that bond fund managers have stretched the definition of "intermediate" in recent year...

And for a real eye opener check out what happens if you take a page from the Golden Butterfly and make the stocks half TSM half SCV. Who needs gold or LTT's? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth...

Thanks for this. What's the "conventional conservative portfolio" you used? Just the portfolio labeled as "Conservative Portfolio" included in Portfolio Visualizer as a default option. It appears to be a globally diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds at 40/60. Thanks! So here's a comparison of ...

Yeah I wonder what Craig and Tex would be saying today. One of the reasons why the PP performed so admirably the last time we were in a comparable period was because gold went through the roof. The world may be different, and Browne is not here to update his philosophy. As per Saifedean Ammous, gol...

Above 5% today for the 30-year. :o Yeah, vs. 5.50% for 3 month bills and 5.58% for six month ones. As the article vnatale shared points out, the losses in long treasuries are truly epic. Cullen Roche, whose post I shared when I started this thread, refers to LTT's and gold as "insurance" investment...

Above 5% today for the 30-year. :o Yeah, vs. 5.50% for 3 month bills and 5.58% for six month ones. As the article vnatale shared points out, the losses in long treasuries are truly epic. Cullen Roche, whose post I shared when I started this thread, refers to LTT's and gold as "insurance" investment...

Also see Ben Carson's latest:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/1 ... -amateurs/

I have my ITT's in Schwab's SCHR ETF, which has an average duration of 5.6 years. Losses were 10.58% in 2022 and are 1.15% YTD. But I have half of my bond position in 3 and 6 month Tbills set on automatic rollover paying 5%+. I'll move all but a couple of years worth of living expenses into SCHR whe...

A typically excellent post from Cullen Roche. I especially appreciate his concept of "escape velocity" (the point where current coupon payments offset the interest rate risk). Makes me very glad I switched to using all 5 year Treasuries in my Golden Butterfly long ago. https://disciplinefunds.com/20...

Yeah I read that too but $1 million is just a big chunk (perhaps most or all) of he and his wife's tax-deferred accounts. Presumably he has a multiple of that in taxable.

TIPS bonds don't get a lot of love on this forum (though iBonds do, at least of late) but I'm guessing that others have read some of the many posts on Bogleheads and other finance sites extolling the virtues of a 30 year TIPS ladder since it's now possible to construct such a ladder that permits inf...

Thought others might enjoy this new post from Cullen Roche:

https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/08/15/ ... -velocity/

IMHO he makes a good case for short and intermediate Treasuries being very attractive.

OK the discussion has gone a bit into the weeds so I'll try to bring it back around a bit, John Rekenthaler did a good comparison of TIPS, nominal Treasuries and SPIA'S recently: https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/retirement-income-treasury-bonds-tips-ladders-or-annuities TIPS obviously outperform if...

While TIPS bonds aren't often discussed here they've certainly been a hot topic of late on mainstream forums like Bogleheads and sites such as Morningstar - in part because for the first time in many years it's possible to construct a ladder of them yielding a 4%+ inflation-adjusted safe withdrawal ...

snedgar wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:46 pm

I'm not questioning it, but I can't quite understand how you get +/- 6% by scaling from the HBPP +/-10% bands.

Can somebody (gently) explain the maths?

As I recall it’s 30% of the 20% slice of each asset in the GB.

Yes - 14% and 26% were the consensus recommendation years ago when the GB was introduced. I’ve rarely come close to them in actual practice.

i don’t follow the logic though of the insurance bucket with a 40 plus year duration as a retiree …. first off i wouldn’t say gold has a duration of 40 plus years . you can pick almost any time frame the last 25 years and equities and gold have beaten equities and bonds . so i fail to see the long ...

Out of curiosity, I compared the Weird Portfolio to one I'd played around with for some time (I call it 25s, or Golden Quarters), a hybrid of the GB and PP, but with more stock allocation, it is 25% TSM, 25% SCV, 25% Gold, 25% ITT. Here it is in PV . It has the same performance as the Weird Portfol...

Best thing I've seen on this ridiculous drama, courtesy of Cullen Roche:

https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/05/12/ ... t-ceiling/

OK, so as the OP here's where I ended up after getting a clearer idea of what my spouse's actual comfort level is should she ever have to manage the portfolio. 20% VTI - self-explanatory 20% VBR - a "good enough" SCV choice - admittedly more of a small + mid-cap play vs. AVUV, etc. 20% GLDM (the low...

Yes that’s the link to the book. You can either read it online or try printing it out as a PDF but he doesn’t offer it as a download as far as I know.