Search found 418 matches

by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 5:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 12
Views: 1312

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

If you had to sell a huge chunk of your portfolio in 08-09, would you have been better off with LTTs Kbg’s new post in response to this is excellent. I also suggest reading the Morningstar article I posted the link to in my “Bills, Bonds & Cash” post in this forum. LTT’s did slightly better than IT...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 3:37 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 12
Views: 1312

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

People should never focus on assets in a portfolio...they should focus on the portfolio...so let's do this which explains why it doesn't make much difference. Duration (making numbers up) LTTs 20 ITTs 10 Cash 0 25/25 = 50/50 for cash & bonds...20+0/2 = 10...voila...ITTs Ideal duration for ITT’s is ...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 1:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?
Replies: 2
Views: 105

Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?

Here's a good post by one of Morningstar's veteran writers about the performance of T Bills, ITT's and LTT's during all kinds of markets, with a particular focus on returns during market crises. As you'll see, LTT's have by no means always been the best choice during such crises. The historical "swe...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 9:17 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 12
Views: 1312

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

Is this something that needs to be applied to the "Permanent Portfolio"? It would have saved a lot of grief this year over long term treasuries. I found this other post on bogleheads https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46704 The post mentioned Larry' Swedroe's 2006 book: The Only Guide...
by Kevin K.
Mon May 16, 2022 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 17
Views: 453

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

Good article in the WaPo today that places blame for the current inflation mess where it belongs, IMHO:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... on-easing/
by Kevin K.
Sun May 15, 2022 10:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 558

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

These are good points. I know I'm not alone in having discovered the PP midway through the 2008 market crisis, I think through the epic Bogleheads thread started and largely moderated by Craig Rowland and J.K. Larson. At the time I saw my complex, slice-and-dice, global, small-cap and value tilted ...
by Kevin K.
Sun May 15, 2022 9:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 558

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Meanwhile TLT is down 21.28% YTD, cash is losing ~8% to inflation, VTI is down 16.53% and GLD with its negative 1.27% return isn't exactly looking like it's gonna come to the rescue. Can you imagine what'll happen with the PP if Fama's suggestion that 10% short-term Treasury rates might be needed t...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 14, 2022 10:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 558

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

dualstow wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 6:51 pm
Craig Rowland and J.K. Larson
Just a tiny correction: I think it’s J.M. Lawson
Thanks very much dualstow!

I owe he and Craig a lot and ought to at least be able to spell their names correctly.
by Kevin K.
Sat May 14, 2022 6:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 558

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Keep in mind that here are 2 different kinds of people that have invested in a 25/25/25/25 allocation. One kind found out about the PHILOSOPHY of the PP. The other kind naturally gravitated towards the asset allocation on their own due to market conditions, risk/reward profile, and personal financi...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 14, 2022 5:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 558

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

The scenario playing out now is one that I envisioned and was one of the reasons why I chose the PP in the first place. What is playing out now is high inflation, rising interest rates, with a potentially weakening economy. This was the exact scenario that I thought gold was supposed to bail us out...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 14, 2022 3:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 558

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

I'm with ahhrunforthehills on this. Despite the "permanent" part, the PP (brilliant as Browne was) both reflected the times it was created in and continued to evolve and change even during his lifetime. I'm among those who think it's highly likely he'd have had little if any interest in LTT's offeri...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 03, 2022 2:48 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 12
Views: 693

Re: US / International weight

Tyler @ Portfolio Charts offered some typically insightful thoughts in response to an earlier question in these forums about the possibility of adding international stocks to the PP or GB: "Q: One additional question: Have you considered a slice of international, for diversification? I realize that ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bonds vs. Equity Risk in a rising rate environment
Replies: 0
Views: 125

Bonds vs. Equity Risk in a rising rate environment

Thought this was a very worthwhile article: https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/risk-reward-in-a-hiking-cycle?e=6a3b6a5c9b Admittedly it's not going to offer a lot of consolation for what's happened thus far with LTT's but if you look at the PP or GB as a whole I don't see any reason to be particularly pes...
by Kevin K.
Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3553

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Sticking with Treasuries doesn't have to mean sticking with the LTT/MM barbell. Using ITT's (I use VGIT with ~5+ years of duration) instead of the barbell has historically provided essentially identical returns to the barbell with much less volatility. I'm not sure I agree with you on the much less...
by Kevin K.
Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3553

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Sticking with Treasuries doesn't have to mean sticking with the LTT/MM barbell. Using ITT's (I use VGIT with ~5+ years of duration) instead of the barbell has historically provided essentially identical returns to the barbell with much less volatility. The only problem is you lose the elegance of ha...
by Kevin K.
Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: VIPSX and iBonds instead of LTT’s and TBills
Replies: 2
Views: 338

VIPSX and iBonds instead of LTT’s and TBills

There’s an intelligent poster on Bogleheads (willthrill81) who unlike many others on that forum understands and respects the PP. He proposed this substitution in the GB. Of course I’m familiar with the arguments against TIPS made in the PP book and elsewhere but they’re largely based on their anomal...
by Kevin K.
Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley GB
Replies: 11
Views: 1021

Re: Wellesley GB

Unsurprising but all you're doing with this substitution is getting rid of cash - which is invaluable for rebalancing, living off of and a fair amount of inflation protection - with a slice of large-cap value stocks and intermediate corporate bonds, while also injecting an actively-managed fund subj...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How would a PP perform if the US was "cancelled"?
Replies: 6
Views: 816

Re: How would a PP perform if the US was "cancelled"?

This article's three years old but does put things in perspective:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecu ... c33c4370b9

Texas alone has a bigger economy than Russia - and Russia has nothing without petroleum exports.
by Kevin K.
Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 8908

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

ppnewbie wrote:
Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:10 pm
Kevin K. wrote:
Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:13 pm
Yeah but do I really need an NFT when I’ve already got a catchy theme song? ;)

https://youtu.be/zcSlcNfThUA
Add the two together and the NFT will be worth 100x

;D ;D ;D
by Kevin K.
Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:13 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 8908

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Yeah but do I really need an NFT when I’ve already got a catchy theme song? ;)

https://youtu.be/zcSlcNfThUA
by Kevin K.
Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 86
Views: 8908

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

I should've been clearer when I commented about the possibility of banning bitcoin discussion or at least proselytizers for it. I don't mean to inhibit anyone's free speech but promoting bitcoin in the gold sub-forum or anyplace other than the variable portfolio or other topics seems inappropriate t...