Search found 458 matches

by Kevin K.
Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:52 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 467

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

I'm interested in revisiting the classic long-term Treasury/money market barbell. I don't mean to incur the wrath of any "stay the course no matter what" purists but I'm under the impression that many of us "fudge" these allocations to some degree anyway. Way back when the permissible level of fudg...
by Kevin K.
Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A history lesson for our crypto trolls
Replies: 21
Views: 833

Re: A history lesson for our crypto trolls

Desert wrote:
Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:14 am
He couldn't have a more perfect name, Sam Bankman-Fried.
True, although Sam Ponzi-Madoff would also have worked. ;D
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A history lesson for our crypto trolls
Replies: 21
Views: 833

Re: A history lesson for our crypto trolls

It looks like Ben took down the article. I'm a bit behind on the Animal Spirits podcasts so I don't know if they've talked about it yet, but the ones with the guy from BlockFI are always pretty interesting. The one where they talked about 3 Arrows was cool inside-baseball stuff, I assume he knows a...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 467

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

Gold. Agreed. It offers very little inflation protection. If Australia's inflation rate went to 1000% our economy is so small it would not affect the gold price. I think of gold as just another currency. I do like its long term negative correlation to shares as well. I know this is in the bond sect...
by Kevin K.
Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 467

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

And 2022 has certainly shown - with a vengeance - that those who thought LTT's would zig when equities zagged didn't know their market history. Hi Kevin, Let me pose this question. Do you think the premise the PP was founded on is still valid? That is, LTT's do well in deflation/Gold in Inflation/C...
by Kevin K.
Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:21 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 467

Bond barbell vs. other options

I'm interested in revisiting the classic long-term Treasury/money market barbell. I don't mean to incur the wrath of any "stay the course no matter what" purists but I'm under the impression that many of us "fudge" these allocations to some degree anyway. Way back when the permissible level of fudgi...
by Kevin K.
Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1428

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

The Portfolio Visualizer link is irrelevant seajay since DSCF was only introduced in September 2021. That’s why I said I’m watching it, not investing in it. But if you read about its approach, its just automating the strategic rebalancing out of frothy markets that Jack Bogle and others have recomme...
by Kevin K.
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1428

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Getting back to the OP's questions: I highly recommend reading through Cullen Roche's website, starting with this comprehensive overview of money: https://www.pragcap.com/understanding-money/ He does a great job of explaining how fiat currencies work - and, among other things, why gold isn't a parti...
by Kevin K.
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

His premise that a balanced portfolio can only support a draw rate in the 3% range is unfounded …. Mathematically A failure of 4% needs to see less then a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement. There is nothing since 1966 that has done that See Roth's more detailed article (he p...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

How to do this with funds is discussed in detail by posters in the thread, along with the plusses and minuses of using funds vs. the ladder. Essentially one needs to duration match for one’s spending and remember to rebalance and reduce the duration at least quarterly. Some combination of VTIP, SCHP...
by Kevin K.
Sun Nov 06, 2022 9:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 17
Views: 661

4.3% SWR for 30 years

Excellent article by the well-known financial advisor Allan Roth on taking advantage of the current TIPS yields: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/10/24/the-4-rule-just-became-a-whole-lot-easier?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP+Newsletter+2022-10-25+6479&bt_ee=AR...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:43 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 404

Re: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

I am not at all saying it is a bad idea, I just read it (and downloaded and played with the spreadsheet a bit) and it is still not 100% clear to me if there is any value left after 30 years, or he will be spending down principal as well? "While this strategy isn’t perfect, it produced a safe 4.3% a...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 4:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 404

Re: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

I looked at this, excited...then I see that the 4.36% withdrawal rate includes principal, so the end result after 30 years is you have nothing left. If that's the basis, then I'd rather do an immediate annuity. For the same 100k, where he pulls out $4300 a year for 30 years, an SPIA will allow me t...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 404

A viable alternative to the PP - or any other conservative portfolio?

From the article: "I built a 4.36% real (inflation-adjusted) systematic withdrawal portfolio using a 30-Year TIPS ladder. In June, I wrote about safe spend rates and concluded that a balanced portfolio could only support a 3.3% real withdrawal rate for a 30 year period with a 90% chance of success. ...
by Kevin K.
Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 36
Views: 2282

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

From last week's Bogleheads conference speakers, re: ESG funds: And this recent article in the NYT really says it all: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/opinion/esg-investing-responsibility.html?unlocked_article_code=5xfBDLNGqkuq37Zsec1Q8OS11UzHCTFOLaTTGLC1z2UZRDVf-zEO3ajV9AYxx-GWApdz-dwIq6VY4g6iO-...
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:26 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 23
Views: 1917

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

If we're going to blame politicians for inflation we should also blame them for every other economic condition, since their decisions precipitate them. Singling inflation out doesn't make sense, and neither does the "buying inflation from the arsonist" dig against TIPS, which of course applies just ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

I did what dualstow did: 3 month autorolled T bills in my Fidelity investment account, in 3 aliquots roughly 1 month apart. Figuring I'll add to it as new cash comes in. Sophie, it's good to hear from you! I hope you don't mind a question: do you buy T bills on the secondary market or at the auctio...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

For anyone who wants to go further down the rabbit hole with TIPS I posted Tyler's blog post on Bogleheads and there's a good bit of discussion there (with Tyler participating). I especially recommend the posts from vineviz, who may be the single most savvy bond expert (among many) on that forum: h...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:15 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Tyler (as usual) has a thoughtful essay on the pros and cons of TIPS in Portfolio Charts. https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/09/27/all-about-tips-real-returns-and-inflated-expectations/#takeaways Perfect! Wish I was able to read that earlier this year before putting a bunch into DIPSX (inflation prot...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Thanks Kbg and Cortopassi for sharing your thoughts. I don't know whether my thoughts here will add any clarity or just add to the murkiness but I can certainly see why there's a thread on Bogleheads at the moment asking whether folks would go all-in on TIPS for their fixed income when/if real rates...
by Kevin K.
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Why do BHs love them...they eliminate inflation risk which is a HUGE benefit. And yet I see that iShares TIPS Bond ETF is down 17.78% YTD. And yes, I get that the performance of a fund is different than buying a bond and holding it to maturity. Still, that just looks to me like another asset that i...
by Kevin K.
Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 4304

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Corto, I buy Treasury bills, but only after I have completely maxed out my annual purchases of I-bonds. I hold short duration T-bills to maturity so I know their precise yield when I buy them. As you have discovered, investors cannot buy tax deferred T-bills through TreasuryDirect. I do not buy TIP...