I must be reading it wrong. It looks like the blend of Total aka VTI and Smallcap (“Sample Portfolo” in blue) is very similar to but not as good as just S&P 500 (Green). No, you're not wrong over that short time frame. My point was to show the diversification of exposure across market caps and ...

On the other hand, have a look at the "equity market capitalization" graphic in this backtest: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5rlhBO4h4OCvepnJ3Ghc8O This is of course the TSM/SCV barbell Tyler uses in the Golden Butterfly, and it's almost perfectly balanc...

:o I read through this text. How in God's name is a fund that holds everything supposed to cross into undiversified territory? I see there's a BHeads thread on it. Words of wisdom from nisiprius, as always. Yeah, I noticed that thread too and agree with you 100% about nisiprius. He's a legend for g...

Here's an interesting addendum they just added to the prospectus for VTI. As luck would have it, it arrived in my email inbox just as I was buying additional shares of Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR): In accordance with approval granted by the Fund’s Board of Trustees, the Fund has revised its divers...

But then again.....

https://prospect.org/power/2024-11-26-c ... -reserves/

The funny thing about these diversified portfolios I've been playing with all these years, whether it be the PP, GB, All Seasons etc., they all would have been demolished by anything that had even a modest allocation to BTC. I really think it deserves a place in these strategies. Good timing becaus...

I guess the question is how much "Insurance" (long bonds and gold) to own. Cullen Roche suggests 10% of each, but in most of the portfolio testing I've done it takes 15-20% gold to offer meaningful protection against sequence-of-returns-risk in retirement and/or to offset stock and bond m...

> have there been secular changes in the investment picture such that (some of) Harry Browne's insights and conclusions no longer apply We past peak working age populations in US EU and China. The pie only grows for everyone with young people taking out car loans, educations loans and mortgages. Wh...

Like Hal, I've been meaning to start a thread on this topic, so thanks to all for your contributions. Deflation is the least likely scenario: it has happened just twice in U.S. history (1930-33 during the Great Depression and briefly from 2007-2009 during the GFC). It makes the least send of all to...

This is a timely thread for me. I have been invested in a Permanent Portfolio since 2012. The only bucket in the portfolio that has accumulated consistent (unrealized capital) losses is the Treasury Bond component, especially stark since the stunning gains in gold over the past year. I have been wo...

While I don't entirely disagree with your sentiments the dates you chose to compare TIPS and gold are arbitrary and obviously chosen to favor your argument for gold and against TIPS. I mean if we're going to just choose arbitrary dates to base our arguments on, here's a comparison of short-TIPS (VT...

Was there any time period when one held TIPS were held to maturity that you did not get what was promised? A rate of return plus the inflation during that period? Yes, the entire time. The 'inflation' metric the government has invented and constantly changes, with some changes major, does not measu...

William Bernstein is one among many who have shown that gold is not an effective inflation hedge. It is a severe circumstances hedge. Well Bill Bernstein is a huge huge huge fan of TIPS. Ive heard him speak about it several times. Regardless, look over the years since TIPS were out. Pick reasonable...

As William Bernstein and others have pointed out, the four economic scenarios Browne was concerned about are not even close to being equally likely to occur, … I mean I get the appeal of equal weighting in terms of simplicity and rebalancing but IMHO it makes no sense otherwise. … It’s an agnostic ...

Inflation is the next biggest threat, but as we also know Browne was mistaken in claiming that gold is an effective inflation hedge. I know this thread is primarily about LTT, but would you elaborate on why you are saying this? I was worried about the same, but looking at how gold has responded in ...

I find it helpful to occasionally revisit Browne's stated reasons for the four assets in the PP (this summary is from Wikipedia): "25% in U.S. stocks, to provide a strong return during times of prosperity. For this portion of the portfolio, Browne recommends a basic S&P 500 index fund. 25% ...

Doesn't make any sense to me to not trust TIPS but trust nominal Treasuries, given that they are issued by the same entity.

And the performance of VTIP speaks for itself. There are good reasons it's the only TIPS fund used in Vanguard's retirement portfolios.

The article doesn't convince me that Treasuries aren't still (in the immortal J.M. Lawson quip) "the best horse at the glue factory" but I do think that there hasn't been a compelling argument for owning LTT's for many years now. The question then, for non-purists, is what to do instead. I...

Oh I follow you... compared to US megas, ex-US large caps are "relatively small". That's a good way to think about it. What do you think about ACWV min-volatility global? It actually tracked VT pretty well until COVID, then VT took off, because of US Tech. ACWV doesn't have much of the Ma...

This same idea has come to my mind, but VT is only large cap, I think that breaks the GB model. There are small cap international funds like SCHC, FNDC from Schwab. I am definitely going to be a GB investor... eventually. VT is actually global by market value and thus includes mid and small caps ju...

Came across this portfolio in a Bogleheads thread on retirement allocations: "50% Stock Fund (VT) 16.65% Intermediate Term Treasuries Fund (VGIT) 16.65% Gold Fund (GLDM) 16.7% Money Market Fund Similar to the Golden Butterfly, but with less duration on the fixed income side, and more balance on...

If you model the Permanent Portfolio with IEF instead of TLT it is not a major difference, and your duration is cut in half. True but IEF has a very high ER and too long a duration (IMHO) to be considered a true intermediate Treasury fund. Annette Thau and other bond experts consider 5 years year t...

Whats gov gonna do. Cut spending, raise taxes, or inflate. No free lunch for them if CPI=money supply. Thats whats egregious about the ibond rate. Capped at 10k and they still give you nothing. Have to agree with you 100% here. Not to mention that in addition to the absurd/insulting 10K purchase li...

It's interesting to me that with all of the frenzied discussion of TIPS ladders in the financial press and on websites like Bogleheads the past couple of years (siince ~2% real yields became available) there's been zero discussion of how safe withdrawal rates from these ladders compare to risk-pari...

It's interesting to me that with all of the frenzied discussion of TIPS ladders in the financial press and on websites like Bogleheads the past couple of years (siince ~2% real yields became available) there's been zero discussion of how safe withdrawal rates from these ladders compare to risk-parit...