Search found 516 matches

by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 17, 2024 3:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 34
Views: 1518

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

It's such a pleasure and privilege to hear from you Craig. I know that I speak for many here when I say how grateful I am to you for all of your writing on the PP, going all the way back to those epic early threads you and Mr. Lawson did on the Bogleheads forums and of course including your essentia...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 16, 2024 2:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why Value?
Replies: 24
Views: 454

Re: Why Value?

What I mean is, if you individually bought and held the Magnificent 7, you would of course get dinged when one of them invariably slides. If you buy the total market, some unknown that you never would have thought to buy is going to grow to become part of the next favored group, the Fantabulous 8. ...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 16, 2024 10:02 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why Value?
Replies: 24
Views: 454

Re: Why Value?

What I mean is, if you individually bought and held the Magnificent 7, you would of course get dinged when one of them invariably slides. If you buy the total market, some unknown that you never would have thought to buy is going to grow to become part of the next favored group, the Fantabulous 8. ...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:32 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why Value?
Replies: 24
Views: 454

Re: Why Value?

I understand. Thank you! If I recall, you had a portfolio checkup with Allan Roth or a similar professional which I’m sure helps one stick to the plan. Not Allan Roth (a great guy for sure and someone whose brilliant writing I've certainly benefitted from - but I could never have afforded his servi...
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:31 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why Value?
Replies: 24
Views: 454

Re: Why Value?

Do you tilt to value, Kevin? I guess you adopted the Golden Butterfly. Did you tilt to small cap value or just value before Tyler invented that portfolio? TSM or Total Stock Market is just a mirror of the market, is it not? If Apple is a large part of VTSAX it’s because it’s a large part of the mar...
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 15, 2024 6:31 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Why Value?
Replies: 24
Views: 454

Re: Why Value?

There are endless articles and of course threads on Bogleheads about the validity of the value premium going forward, whether it'll come back (cyclically) after being in the toilet, even whether the Fama-French data are real (huge thread on that on Bogleheads now if you've got a few hours to spare)....
by Kevin K.
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 34
Views: 1518

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

Another comment spurred by reading the transcript of the interview with Craig is that he lauds the PP for not having large drawdowns and thus always being there when you need funds. But what he's doing is conflating low volatility (of the portfolio as a whole, mind you - PP'ers are told that a high ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 34
Views: 1518

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

… I got the feeling that his nonchalant attitude towards the PP's often lackluster performance, not to mention the disastrous LTT rout in 2022, might in part be because of both having a large enough portfolio to where even just 4-5% annual returns are OK while making real money in his business. But...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New interview with Craig Rowland
Replies: 34
Views: 1518

Re: New interview with Craig Rowland

Great to hear Craig's voice after so many years, and to learn more about how his professional background led him to embrace the PP. I got the feeling that his nonchalant attitude towards the PP's often lackluster performance, not to mention the disastrous LTT rout in 2022, might in part be because o...
by Kevin K.
Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:16 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25198

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

Also perhaps of interest is this new post from Ben Carlson on how much slicing and dicing helps vs. KISS:

https://obliviousinvestor.com/asset-all ... snt-magic/
by Kevin K.
Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:14 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25198

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

I like Paul Merriman and certainly spent years owning a complex, Merriman Ultimate (see Portfolio Charts) slice-and-dice portfolio after reading tons of stuff about modern portfolio theory and factor investing. But the problem IMHO with Paul's arguments is he (like so many others) is basing his reco...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25198

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

Good article on SCV fund choices here: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/small-cap-value-etf/ For what little it's worth I was splitting SCV half-and-half between VBR and AVUV but decided to just stick with VBR in the interests of simplicity. It's true that VBR is really more of a small/mid blend co...
by Kevin K.
Sun Oct 08, 2023 9:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

GOVT looks like a really good ETF; thanks for letting us know about it. I really like the fact that it automatically rebalances its holdings by market cap so that the effective duration changes according to the market. I like your phrase "chaos asset" for gold, and I suppose that would also apply to...
by Kevin K.
Sat Oct 07, 2023 9:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Thanks barrett and Smith1776 for your thoughtful comments. I think the allocation in the ATP makes a great deal of sense. Intermediate duration has historically been the risk:return sweet spot for bonds; it's just that bond fund managers have stretched the definition of "intermediate" in recent year...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 4:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

And for a real eye opener check out what happens if you take a page from the Golden Butterfly and make the stocks half TSM half SCV. Who needs gold or LTT's? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 4:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Thanks for this. What's the "conventional conservative portfolio" you used? Just the portfolio labeled as "Conservative Portfolio" included in Portfolio Visualizer as a default option. It appears to be a globally diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds at 40/60. Thanks! So here's a comparison of ...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 4:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Yeah I wonder what Craig and Tex would be saying today. One of the reasons why the PP performed so admirably the last time we were in a comparable period was because gold went through the roof. The world may be different, and Browne is not here to update his philosophy. As per Saifedean Ammous, gol...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Above 5% today for the 30-year. :o Yeah, vs. 5.50% for 3 month bills and 5.58% for six month ones. As the article vnatale shared points out, the losses in long treasuries are truly epic. Cullen Roche, whose post I shared when I started this thread, refers to LTT's and gold as "insurance" investment...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:31 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Above 5% today for the 30-year. :o Yeah, vs. 5.50% for 3 month bills and 5.58% for six month ones. As the article vnatale shared points out, the losses in long treasuries are truly epic. Cullen Roche, whose post I shared when I started this thread, refers to LTT's and gold as "insurance" investment...
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 05, 2023 4:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 05, 2023 3:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

I have my ITT's in Schwab's SCHR ETF, which has an average duration of 5.6 years. Losses were 10.58% in 2022 and are 1.15% YTD. But I have half of my bond position in 3 and 6 month Tbills set on automatic rollover paying 5%+. I'll move all but a couple of years worth of living expenses into SCHR whe...
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 17601

The Bond Market Sweet Spot

A typically excellent post from Cullen Roche. I especially appreciate his concept of "escape velocity" (the point where current coupon payments offset the interest rate risk). Makes me very glad I switched to using all 5 year Treasuries in my Golden Butterfly long ago. https://disciplinefunds.com/20...
by Kevin K.
Tue Aug 22, 2023 2:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea
Replies: 6
Views: 1218

Re: Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea

Yeah I read that too but $1 million is just a big chunk (perhaps most or all) of he and his wife's tax-deferred accounts. Presumably he has a multiple of that in taxable.
by Kevin K.
Tue Aug 22, 2023 8:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea
Replies: 6
Views: 1218

Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea

TIPS bonds don't get a lot of love on this forum (though iBonds do, at least of late) but I'm guessing that others have read some of the many posts on Bogleheads and other finance sites extolling the virtues of a 30 year TIPS ladder since it's now possible to construct such a ladder that permits inf...
by Kevin K.
Wed Aug 16, 2023 8:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Good post on interest rate "escape velocity"
Replies: 2
Views: 800

Good post on interest rate "escape velocity"

Thought others might enjoy this new post from Cullen Roche:

https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/08/15/ ... -velocity/

IMHO he makes a good case for short and intermediate Treasuries being very attractive.