Search found 440 matches

by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

I did what dualstow did: 3 month autorolled T bills in my Fidelity investment account, in 3 aliquots roughly 1 month apart. Figuring I'll add to it as new cash comes in. Sophie, it's good to hear from you! I hope you don't mind a question: do you buy T bills on the secondary market or at the auctio...
by Kevin K.
Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

For anyone who wants to go further down the rabbit hole with TIPS I posted Tyler's blog post on Bogleheads and there's a good bit of discussion there (with Tyler participating). I especially recommend the posts from vineviz, who may be the single most savvy bond expert (among many) on that forum: h...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Well, TLT is a good example, yes. So this is where I get lost. Two scenarios: 1) I buy a 30 year bond from treasury direct. 30 years from now I get my original principal plus whatever interest along the way. 2) I buy an equivalent $ amount of TLT. What am I getting in 30 years? Since they have to c...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:15 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Tyler (as usual) has a thoughtful essay on the pros and cons of TIPS in Portfolio Charts. https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/09/27/all-about-tips-real-returns-and-inflated-expectations/#takeaways Perfect! Wish I was able to read that earlier this year before putting a bunch into DIPSX (inflation prot...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Thanks Kbg and Cortopassi for sharing your thoughts. I don't know whether my thoughts here will add any clarity or just add to the murkiness but I can certainly see why there's a thread on Bogleheads at the moment asking whether folks would go all-in on TIPS for their fixed income when/if real rates...
by Kevin K.
Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Why do BHs love them...they eliminate inflation risk which is a HUGE benefit. And yet I see that iShares TIPS Bond ETF is down 17.78% YTD. And yes, I get that the performance of a fund is different than buying a bond and holding it to maturity. Still, that just looks to me like another asset that i...
by Kevin K.
Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

Re: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Corto, I buy Treasury bills, but only after I have completely maxed out my annual purchases of I-bonds. I hold short duration T-bills to maturity so I know their precise yield when I buy them. As you have discovered, investors cannot buy tax deferred T-bills through TreasuryDirect. I do not buy TIP...
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

My contention that there is asymmetric risk in the decision to allocate one's fixed income in nominal bonds, such as TBM, or inflation-linked bonds, such as TIPS. With individual TIPS held to maturity , their real return known with precision at the time of purchase. There is no risk to the future b...
by Kevin K.
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"
Replies: 93
Views: 2179

TBills as "the best horse at the glue factory?"

Good post on Tipswatch about how to take advantage of the best short-term Treasury rates since 2007. Still losing ~5% to inflation but considering what's happening to every other asset class they may well be the least worse investment of 2022. https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/21/short-term-treasurys-ev...
by Kevin K.
Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:44 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

I appreciate your insightful comments joypog! I do want to point out though that the main reason TIPS didn't perform as well as LTT's during the 2008 market crash was Lehman Brothers. This post from Adam and Movement Capital tells the sordid story: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4278351-largest-ar...
by Kevin K.
Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

I think the better PV tool for thinking about TIPS on is the asset correlation tool (this link is goes back to 2000 so it covers two recessions). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSMX+VIPSX+CASHX+VUSTX&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=60 In a risk parity style p...
by Kevin K.
Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

[ Completely agree on the backtests. I just ran the numbers for what was available on portfoliovisualizer, and thought there were interesting results in how close the overall final values were, but also that the TIPS didn't provide the same diversification benefit as nominals did, at least for the ...
by Kevin K.
Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

Re: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Definitely interesting points, and something for all of us to consider. But I just continue to have a hard time digesting the fact that the market isn't accurately pricing in all known possibilities and delivering up prices that provide us with a '50/50' situation as far as which will perform bette...
by Kevin K.
Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest
Replies: 15
Views: 658

TIPS vs. the PP Barbell or iBonds: No Contest

Excellent new post from David Enna at Tipswatch: https://tipswatch.com/2022/09/18/this-weeks-10-year-tips-reopening-auction-is-worth-a-serious-look/ Enna is always wisely moderate in his claims and recommendations but reading between the lines here there really aren't any meaningful advantages to no...
by Kevin K.
Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Synthesis of the PP and GB portfolios
Replies: 21
Views: 1152

Re: Synthesis of the PP and GB portfolios

Hi, I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but I've found an interesting synthesis of the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly. I love the simplicity of the PP, but I'm not a fan of LTTs even though I know the arguments in their favor (liability matching, especially as TIPS, and bond conv...
by Kevin K.
Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Synthesis of the PP and GB portfolios
Replies: 21
Views: 1152

Re: Synthesis of the PP and GB portfolios

Hi, I'm sure this has been mentioned before, but I've found an interesting synthesis of the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly. I love the simplicity of the PP, but I'm not a fan of LTTs even though I know the arguments in their favor (liability matching, especially as TIPS, and bond conv...
by Kevin K.
Mon Aug 01, 2022 1:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 281
Views: 16094

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Interesting idea seajay. Perhaps also worthy of considering might be to load up on 10 year TIPS in lieu of part or all of the regular bonds. .63% + the inflation adjustment makes them considerably more attractive than iBonds (not least because of the lack of purchase limits) and quite possibly bette...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:08 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash as an inflation hedge
Replies: 1
Views: 557

Cash as an inflation hedge

Good article confirming Tyler’s view that cash is greatly under appreciated as an inflation hedge. :

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1 ... ource=link
by Kevin K.
Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:06 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 1158

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

Clyatt’s book is actually called “Work Less, Live More” and he continues to maintain an eponymous website: http://www.workless-livemore.com/ Tyler at Portfolio Charts has a nice post about Bob on his site and also includes his Sandwich Portfolio. Bob’s a pioneer in the ER world and his book, though ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No stocks or conventional bonds?
Replies: 1
Views: 225

No stocks or conventional bonds?

Interesting article from a newsletter for financial advisors I follow: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/06/10/how-i-protect-against-the-coming-market-crash?utm_source=boomtrain&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AP+Newsletter+2022-06-14+5897&bt_ee=UzxCBJmJf9k5VS7MqJVxSEHH5VGapa6LcUVM1U1d...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 5:59 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 18
Views: 2819

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

If you had to sell a huge chunk of your portfolio in 08-09, would you have been better off with LTTs Kbg’s new post in response to this is excellent. I also suggest reading the Morningstar article I posted the link to in my “Bills, Bonds & Cash” post in this forum. LTT’s did slightly better than IT...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 3:37 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb
Replies: 18
Views: 2819

Re: The 20 basis point per year rule-of-thumb

People should never focus on assets in a portfolio...they should focus on the portfolio...so let's do this which explains why it doesn't make much difference. Duration (making numbers up) LTTs 20 ITTs 10 Cash 0 25/25 = 50/50 for cash & bonds...20+0/2 = 10...voila...ITTs Ideal duration for ITT’s is ...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 17, 2022 1:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?
Replies: 2
Views: 502

Bills, Bonds and Cash - Where's the Risk:Return Sweet Spot?

Here's a good post by one of Morningstar's veteran writers about the performance of T Bills, ITT's and LTT's during all kinds of markets, with a particular focus on returns during market crises. As you'll see, LTT's have by no means always been the best choice during such crises. The historical "swe...