Search found 226 matches

by Kevin K.
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: VBIRX/BSV
Replies: 1
Views: 90

VBIRX/BSV

Here's a bond fund (and ETF) I wasn't aware of: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/overview/vbirx Short (~2.4 year) maturity, 70% Treasury/30% corporate and has never had a year where it lost money (including in '08). Given the paucity of reasonably safe options that are likely to ov...
by Kevin K.
Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

When I was researching a safer way to invest after the 2008 meltdown I came across a debate about Wellesley vs the Permanent Portfolio on a forum. I don't think it was Bogleheads but I remember that MT and Craig were on the PP side and it got pretty nasty at times. I went with Wellesley for a while...
by Kevin K.
Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

[/quote] What exactly was that statement? I'd read in a few articles to expect the status quo for the next five to ten years. Vinny [/quote] Here's one of many articles on this. New one in today's NY Times as well saying no interest rate increases until at least 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/...
by Kevin K.
Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

When I was researching a safer way to invest after the 2008 meltdown I came across a debate about Wellesley vs the Permanent Portfolio on a forum. I don't think it was Bogleheads but I remember that MT and Craig were on the PP side and it got pretty nasty at times. I went with Wellesley for a while...
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

Thanks very much for doing that D1984. All three are outstanding portfolios. The 80% Wellesley 20% Gold iteration has the best risk-adjusted returns of any of these options in both backtests. A winner it would appear for anyone wanting to keep things simple while applying a bit of PP wisdom to what ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

OK here's the best I can come up with. The constraint is that GLD, the first U.S. gold ETF, has only been in existence since 2004. But this gives you a good sense of what Tyler was talking about. The general principle that he talks about in his excellent article on gold on the Portfolio Charts site ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

Thanks very much for your thoughts! I don't blame folks who dislike active management but Wellington Group certainly has a deep bench and it's difficult to argue with the performance over many decades of either of the "W" funds (Wellington or Wellesley). I could totally see recommending some combina...
by Kevin K.
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 398

An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

OK here's a weird idea for a VP: Vanguard's venerable Wellesley Income Fund, which celebrated its 50th year of stellar returns this past July. What prompted the thought was talking with a very knowledgeable investor friend who's long had 25% of his nest egg in W with the rest broadly-diversified in ...
by Kevin K.
Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2202

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

So then the question becomes what to do with the bond and cash allocation, as well as if any tweaks are in order with the other assets. If one is going to stick with 100% Treasuries it's hard for me to see any argument for anything longer in duration than Tbills given the yield curve. At ~.13% inter...
by Kevin K.
Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2202

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If you look at short timeframes on the order of days or a few months, I agree. If you look at longer timeframes on the order of a couple of years or more, I think PP assets moving together tend to eventually separate and go their own ways again. I think that using TIME as a factor oversimplifies th...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2202

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

It seems to me that some of us (yours truly included) take it as gospel that LTT's or Treasuries in general always offer substantial protection during flights to safety since they did so spectacularly during the 2008 crisis (after which the PP gained a lot of adherents). But historically this hasn't...
by Kevin K.
Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2202

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

Question for those dumping long-term bonds. What is the portfolio policy or plan for when you’d get back into them? I am reminded of this very relevant quote from John Bogle. It is quite difficult enough to make even one timing decision correctly. But you have to be right twice, for the act of, say...