Search found 165 matches

by Kevin K.
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 952

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Good article in Marketwatch today about just how much of the stock market's performance is due to 5 companies (all of it): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-face-a-scary-out-of-whack-scenario-just-look-at-this-chart-2020-07-12 Could be an argument for going all in (e.g. QQQ) or instead sti...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 952

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Resurrecting this thread to share this WaPo article and to suggest that perhaps instead of holding QQQ maybe just replace some or all of the SCV in the GB with TSM, since our COVID 19 world seems to be doing a fine job of turning the the total market into a landscape entirely dominated by megacap te...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown
Replies: 9
Views: 1001

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown

Thanks pmward! Your posts here (and in general) add a lot to this board.
by Kevin K.
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown
Replies: 9
Views: 1001

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown

Thanks pmward! I had you in mind when I posted the link, knowing you'd have a lot of insight to offer and you certainly don't disappoint. This quote from Part 1 of the series by that author makes his approach clear: "The plain-vanilla version of this strategy is quite compelling on its own, and toug...
by Kevin K.
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown
Replies: 9
Views: 1001

Permanent Portfolio Shakedown

This came my way via a post in the long thread on the Golden Butterfly over on Bogleheads: https://investresolve.com/blog/permanent-portfolio-shakedown-part-2/ Some of the discussion in the piece is above my pay grade but not above that of many who post here. The author makes some points about the d...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 32
Views: 2591

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

Following up on the data for portfolio drawdowns, I just posted a new article looking at the recovery side of the equation. I figure you guys will find it interesting as well. :) Welcome to the Big Bounce I'm tempted to say you've outdone yourself with this post Tyler but I know better by now becau...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 519
Views: 120253

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

So clear, so well-reasoned, so helpful! Thanks - again! - Tyler. The GB is so well thought-out. It seems like the only real obstacle to "staying the course" with the GB or PP is the one William Bernstein wisely pointed out years ago: tracking error regret, which in turn is only a danger to the degre...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 519
Views: 120253

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Another question for GB fans here is to what extent people consider it heretical to use something other than SCV for the second 20% of the stock allocation. I understand Tyler's well thought-out recommendation of SCV or SCB as complementing the TSM allocation. And he has mentioned that perhaps a sli...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 519
Views: 120253

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Kevin, don't beat yourself up about it. It's understandable. Rebalancing my GB was simple in terms of entering orders, but psychologically I had to really force myself to do it. This forum is an invaluable support group - if you're feeling those sort of jitters, help is just one post away. In retro...
by Kevin K.
Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 519
Views: 120253

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

A chorus of wise advice here I must say - or rather, ruefully admit, since I sold my SCV at a loss a few weeks back and reverted to the PP from the GB. My (dubious) "logic" was that the GB tilt towards prosperity makes sense almost all the time, with a global pandemic being an obvious exception. And...
by Kevin K.
Mon May 25, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 952

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Good thread on VUG vs VTI on Reddit. The first response with the link to a backtest on Portfolio Visualizer is especially interesting to me: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/emlzq3/vug_vs_vti_what_are_your_longterm_bets_on/ I could see replacing some or all of the SCV in the regular Golde...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 23, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worthwhile interview with Mohamed El-Erian
Replies: 0
Views: 276

Worthwhile interview with Mohamed El-Erian

Thought this was 15 minutes well-spent. Recorded April 30th but quite up-to-date in its market analysis. El-Erian strikes me as being properly concerned by the Fed's ongoing buying of risky bonds and fully aware of what the effects of money printing. His closing comments about stocks underline the v...