Search found 299 matches

by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden butterfly fifth asset
Replies: 8
Views: 255

Re: Golden butterfly fifth asset

This question has arisen before and as luck would have it I kept a note with Tyler's response to it from a few years ago: "One additional question: Have you considered a slice of international, for diversification? I realize that past returns show it's always been a return-reducer (with the exceptio...
by Kevin K.
Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler hits it out of the park (again)
Replies: 12
Views: 473

Tyler hits it out of the park (again)

OK I was already kind of at a loss for superlatives for the Portfolio Charts site generally and Tyler's "deep dive" posts on specific asset classes and market conditions going back years now, but this new post may be his best yet: https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/03/02/how-to-survive-and-make-money-...
by Kevin K.
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:29 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bridgewater on Bitcoin
Replies: 0
Views: 61

Bridgewater on Bitcoin

I suppose I should preface this by saying I don't own any cryptocurrency.

https://www.bridgewater.com/research-an ... on-bitcoin
by Kevin K.
Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:22 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Worthwhile paper on current Treasury bond situation
Replies: 17
Views: 547

Re: Worthwhile paper on current Treasury bond situation

Here's hoping at least a few folks read the article I posted as it'd be nice to get some comments on it rather than unrelated (or at best tangential) topics. Today's stock/bond/gold market meltdown notwithstanding the article makes a pretty compelling case (from what I can tell) for needing to go ou...
by Kevin K.
Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Worthwhile paper on current Treasury bond situation
Replies: 17
Views: 547

Worthwhile paper on current Treasury bond situation

This paper was posted in a thread on the current bond market situation on Bogleheads: https://www.deshaw.com/assets/articles/DESCO_Market_Insights_Bonds_As_Haven_Assets_20210114.pdf It offers the best analysis I've seen of how Treasuries performed during the spring 2020 stock market meltdown along w...
by Kevin K.
Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1350

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

This is the best article I've seen on Bitcoin:

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/top-7 ... r-bitcoin/

Crystal-clear about what it's useful for and what it's not. And NOT a gold substitute or equivalent in the PP, IMHO, though I can totally see its speculative appeal in a VP.
by Kevin K.
Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:47 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3262

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

As Bernstein said . Investing equal amounts of money in outcomes that are anything but equal chances of playing out is one of the flaws of the pp. deflation or depression are not the same odds as prosperity as well as with the feds tools as yellen said for fighting inflation high inflation is not t...
by Kevin K.
Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3262

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Going to listen the the podcast. The one thing I thing that LTT’s may be very good for is the 30x spike they will provide of we have deflationary shock. But if we turn inflationary they will be one big heavy anchor ...so it is a gamble ...actually better odds though as the fed will opt for inflatio...
by Kevin K.
Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3262

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Yeah 2008 is the year we all talk about and probably half the reason there’s such interest in the PP when the stock market tanks. But when you look at that year and what’s happened since you see just how little gas is left in the tank. I’m guessing the only way we see that kind of situation with LTT...
by Kevin K.
Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3262

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Not sure how you’re defining “oomph” but pure ITTs outperform the barbell 1978-2021 and 2000-2021 for CAGR and drawdowns.

Whatever oomph there was seems to have been used up last year, leaving a soupçon of deflation protection and a Mt. Everest of interest rate risk.
by Kevin K.
Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3262

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

I have no idea where interest rates are going either but I've replaced the LTT's with ITT's in my GB. Over long periods of time ITT's have been a wash with the LTT/MM barbell but with less volatility. But that's looking at the historic 40 year bull market in bonds in the rear view mirror. The risk:r...
by Kevin K.
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3262

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

I still haven't seen anything on gold that's as good as Tyler's writeup from last year: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/metal-money-and-the-measurable-value-of-gold/#inflation Regarding just one part of it, he points out that the positive correlation is to negative real interest rates rather ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Latest from Bridgewater
Replies: 6
Views: 516

Re: Latest from Bridgewater

Ray Dalio is captivating and I love listening to him probably as much as I believe he loves listening to himself. The thing is, I often find myself asking whether he is more master investor or master salesman. Considering that a qualified investor in the Bridgewater world will need to show up with ...
by Kevin K.
Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Latest from Bridgewater
Replies: 6
Views: 516

Latest from Bridgewater

Interesting analysis from Ray Dalio and company: https://mailchi.mp/newsletter.bwater.com/2021globaloutlook?e=a13cfb2210 Of course this is only an excerpt from and concise summary of a much longer and more detailed missive sent to their hedge fund clients. I don't think anyone here would take what t...
by Kevin K.
Sun Feb 07, 2021 9:29 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: ITT's or modified barbell?
Replies: 9
Views: 266

Re: ITT's or modified barbell?

Thanks for the thoughtful responses everyone! FWIW for those who do want to own LTT's using and ETF, SPTL is pure Treasuries, ~25 years duration and only .06% ER. Seems like a better choice than VGLT and arguably even TLT. Not inclined to venture into longer-duration bonds myself at the moment. Good...
by Kevin K.
Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: ITT's or modified barbell?
Replies: 9
Views: 266

ITT's or modified barbell?

Not wishing to incur the wrath of diehard PP'ers here but I'm curious to hear other's thoughts on using some or all Intermediate-Term Treasuries (e.g. VGIT with ~ 5 year duration) for the LTT part of the PP or GB. I suppose another idea would be to do the traditional barbell but perhaps reduce the L...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock Options for the PP and GB
Replies: 13
Views: 561

Re: Stock Options for the PP and GB

As a correction of some of what I said in my initial post - and a nod to Tyler's savvy in dividing the equity portion of the GB into TSM and SCV - here's a comparison of TSM and SCV over the past 20 years (one of my favorite time frames to use for backtesting since it captures both the dot.com boom/...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock Options for the PP and GB
Replies: 13
Views: 561

Re: Stock Options for the PP and GB

Not exactly a comparable situation since growth has been trouncing value for 18 years now - and Browne himself recommended growth stocks.
by Kevin K.
Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock Options for the PP and GB
Replies: 13
Views: 561

Stock Options for the PP and GB

Not trying to beat a dead horse here but I'm curious to hear what others are doing with the equity portion of either of these portfolios. Much discussion in earlier threads of what Harry Browne meant by "growth" stocks and how to translate that to today's tech-dominated environment. I note that for ...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 11281

Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio

More Butterflies..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsoBIJoJduo Thanks for sharing this video. I think it's quite good, but he substitutes Total Bond Market funds for the Treasuries (both short and long) which skews the results. He also isn't aware of why SCV was chosen to offset TSM and so just ...
by Kevin K.
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 18
Views: 1080

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.
by Kevin K.
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When Harry Met Larry 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 328

Re: When Harry Met Larry 3 Fund Portfolio

A 40 year bull market in long term treasuries can produce all kinds of results you wouldn’t expect .. The truth is a reversal in rates can do the same and not in a good way ..i always said the pp kryptonite is rising rates as a trend and not these speed bumps we saw over 40 years Exactly! The LTT b...
by Kevin K.
Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:11 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When Harry Met Larry 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 328

When Harry Met Larry 3 Fund Portfolio

Learned about this rather interesting allocation from a very knowledgeable poster (who's also a PP and Portfolio Charts fan) on Bogleheads. He didn't give this a name but I could resist a mash up of Larry (Swedroe) with his penchant for small cap and value tilts and of course the estimable Harry Bro...
by Kevin K.
Sun Dec 27, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Switching from TLT to TIPS
Replies: 6
Views: 1581

Re: Switching from TLT to TIPS

IMHO the only "TIPS" worth buying at present and for the foreseeable future are iBonds - which are currently paying the same 1.68% rate as 30 year Treasuries but with an inflation investment and no taxes on them until redemption.

EE's also are worth a look if you're young enough.
by Kevin K.
Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Treasury Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 819

Re: Vanguard Treasury Fund

The reduction of treasuries to 88% is a bit worrying though, if you're using it as a convenient alternative to T bills. Fidelity's Treasury MM (FDLXX) remains 100% Treasuries, but it's now closed to new investors. Glad I have it. The 0.42% ER is still listed, but the 7 day yield is still 0.01%. wit...