Search found 87 matches

by Kevin K.
Wed May 29, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond Convexity
Replies: 10
Views: 700

Re: Bond Convexity

First of all I want to join the chorus here in thanking Tyler for yet another brilliant and eye-opening post on his site, which continues to improve having already established itself as (in my opinion) the single most useful educational resource for investing on the web. I also feel obliged to share...
by Kevin K.
Sun May 05, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Study - Inverting History
Replies: 28
Views: 1716

Re: TLT Study - Inverting History

Thanks for the wise perspective pmward! I really appreciate your thoughtful comments. This article from just 4 days ago from Schwab supports what you and others here are saying about the dangers of going to only short duration bonds. They're not proposing barbells or ladders that go out to 30 years ...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 04, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Study - Inverting History
Replies: 28
Views: 1716

Re: TLT Study - Inverting History

A couple of quotes from Jazon Zweig's synopsis of William Bernstein's "Deep Risk" (the best analysis of the PP I've read) come to mind: "Deflation, the persistent drop in the value of assets, is extremely rare in modern history, Mr. Bernstein says. It has hit Japan but almost nowhere else in the pas...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 04, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Study - Inverting History
Replies: 28
Views: 1716

Re: TLT Study - Inverting History

Another article that I came across today looking at the issue of bond returns going forward: https://movement.capital/analyzing-bond-performance-in-stock-corrections/?mc_cid=0a5d2ad61e&mc_eid=ded4b883a5 Thanks very much for posting this article. Perhaps I'm drawing the wrong conclusion, but in read...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond duration compensation
Replies: 14
Views: 1517

Re: Bond duration compensation

> The chances of a 1% (or even a .25%) decrease in rates is small Predicting the future eh. How long will Japan's 10 year stay at 0 I don't have to predict the near-term future since the Fed is doing it for us. They've done exactly what they said they'd do with rate increases and while they may or ...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond duration compensation
Replies: 14
Views: 1517

Re: Bond duration compensation

I may well be being obtuse here (wouldn't be the first time) but I'm not seeing any advantage in extending Treasury bond maturities at current rates. The chances of a 1% (or even a .25%) decrease in rates is small, while the odds of a .50% increase this year are high. And yeah, I do remember how LTT...
by Kevin K.
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 28
Views: 5573

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think funds like BIL or SHY are brilliant replacements for cash. How do you feel about the safety of ETFS that hold Treasuries? I am contemplating keeping a stash of cash there and sucking up the .15 expense ratio instead of having to managing a 1-2 year treasury ladder. Vanguard Federal Money Ma...
by Kevin K.
Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Split gold between IAU and PHYS?
Replies: 3
Views: 622

Split gold between IAU and PHYS?

I'm not fully up to speed with the gold ETF and CEF world and am looking for advice. I was a happy holder of GTU back in the day but sold before they were acquired by Sprott - as much to stop the barrage of warring correspondence to unit holders from the two management teams as anything else. I'm te...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler's Pinwheel Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 2426

Re: Tyler's Pinwheel Portfolio

I figured you'd know about Clyatt's book Tyler. Just listened to a nice interview with him on the FIRE Drill podcast talking about his 2+ decades in semi-retirement. Very smart guy. I did a few comparisons of his Sandwich Portfolio with the PInwheel on Portfolio Visualizer. No gold ETFs before 2004 ...
by Kevin K.
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler's Pinwheel Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 2426

Re: Tyler's Pinwheel Portfolio

Another possible alternative sophie is the "Sandwich Portfolio" recommended by Bob Clyatt in his pioneering book "Work Less, Live More." Here's the link to the page about it on his site, including historical returns: http://www.workless-livemore.com/rational-investing-portfolio/ And here are the all...
by Kevin K.
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tyler's Pinwheel Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 2426

Re: Tyler's Pinwheel Portfolio

Thanks for the thoughtful post ochtotona! The PInwheel is indeed a really impressive portfolio. It strikes me as being a PP-informed variant on the Merriman Ultimate and other complicated slice-and-dice allocations. My situation is different - ER'd but with a smaller-than-ideal nest egg and no legac...
by Kevin K.
Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 6572

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

Yes, that's true: you can substitute a 50% allocation of intermediate bonds for the 25% cash and 25% LTT barbell and get about the same result on backtesting. Two caveats: 1. The barbell lets you use the PP as a cash management system as well as a long-term portfolio. That's one of the PP's best fe...