Search found 119 matches

by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly
Replies: 5
Views: 225

Re: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

I've found it really helpful to go back and skim the original thread here on the Golden Butterfly in some detail: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7700 Desert's contributions there and his thinking about portfolios in general as well as (of course) Tyler's numerous cont...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safety of Bond Mutual Funds v. Individual Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 215

Re: Safety of Bond Mutual Funds v. Individual Bonds

Thanks very much pmward and Kbg! I appreciate your taking the time to reply and what you’re saying makes complete sense.
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Safety of Bond Mutual Funds v. Individual Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 215

Re: Safety of Bond Mutual Funds v. Individual Bonds

I'd appreciate feedback from any number of you here who are more knowledgeable about mutual funds vs. ETFs on this paragraph from Evanson Asset Management, a leading DFA FA firm. I understand the point that it was lack of liquidity in the bond market itself that was the root cause of the problems ov...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's had to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 611

Re: Who's had to rebalance?

Thanks Dieter! I was going off of Tyler's one month chart: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/asset-allocation-in-the-most-painful-month/ But you're right, with such wild swings it's a moving target. SCV has indeed been getting killed and that being the case along with (to a lesser degree) the 4...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's had to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 611

Re: Who's had to rebalance?

It's kind of you to share your thinking about this Sophie! You've long been one of the most insightful posters on the forum so reading that you're not certain either is helpful. As I mentioned earlier in this thread my thought for the moment anyway is to treat my GB allocation, which I still believe...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's had to rebalance?
Replies: 18
Views: 611

Re: Who's had to rebalance?

I've been looking to transfer from PP to GB for a while now. It may be time to start that process while rebalancing. I've moved in the opposite direction here - not that I have a crystal ball. But the GB tilts towards prosperity and that sure doesn't seem to be in the cards anytime soon. Not sellin...
by Kevin K.
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 26
Views: 798

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

When it comes to being a voice of financial sanity and reason in these unprecedented times you're the CDC, WHO and Dr. Anthony Fauci all rolled into one Tyler. Thank you so much.
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears
Replies: 23
Views: 506

Re: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears

The last thing I would do with T bill money is put it in a bank! Are you serious???? If we slide into a depression and banks start failing with the federal government already having spent trillions on stimulus packages, I'm not sure the FDIC guarantee is going to mean much. I had in mind watching t...
by Kevin K.
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears
Replies: 23
Views: 506

Re: Schwab cancels T bill rollovers due to negative rate fears

The last thing I would do with T bill money is put it in a bank! Are you serious???? If we slide into a depression and banks start failing with the federal government already having spent trillions on stimulus packages, I'm not sure the FDIC guarantee is going to mean much. I had in mind watching t...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 485
Views: 108674

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I'd saved this from earlier in this now epically-long thread: "Per the quote below, and others from the thread,Sophie recommends 30% re-balancing bands [20% plus or minus 30% of 20% (=6%), meaning a range of 14% - 26%]. You might wonder, as I did, why she did not recommend a 40% re-balancing band, s...
by Kevin K.
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 485
Views: 108674

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Nice charts!

I’m curious about why you choose different rebalancing bands for stocks.
by Kevin K.
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 485
Views: 108674

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Things are changing so fast it's hard to really know but my best guess in what are clearly early days for this pandemic is that we're already in recession and quite possibly headed towards something much more like the Great Depression. Even Mnuchin, who seems even more out of his depth than usual no...