Search found 35 matches

by johntaylor
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
Replies: 25
Views: 5940

Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break

Very pleased to meet you Craig. Two years into german PP now and your book is always near me. I'm likely to just rebalance according to plan. I don't have any better options or ideas right now. Each person is different and I can't offer specific advice due to varying circumstances. Ask me again whe...
by johntaylor
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
Replies: 25
Views: 5940

Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break

Very pleased to meet you Craig. Two years into german PP now and your book is always near me. I'm likely to just rebalance according to plan. I don't have any better options or ideas right now. Each person is different and I can't offer specific advice due to varying circumstances. Ask me again when...
by johntaylor
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: European PP, update 6 months after starting
Replies: 43
Views: 16165

Re: European PP, update 6 months after starting

@Tyler, you up for a coffee? Always! ;D BTW, while we’re talking about European investing — for anyone who would like to read or share PC in a language other than English, there’s a hidden little feature on the site that I’m not sure many people are aware of. You see those little flags near the top...
by johntaylor
Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: European PP, update 6 months after starting
Replies: 43
Views: 16165

Re: European PP, update 6 months after starting

I can't wait! :P @Tyler is The hero. But I would also like to point you to @brownehead and his carterapermanente.es (use google translate). It gives valuable information about the european peculiars of the PP. And there is also kind of a community hanging around. @Tyler on your site, it says "Total...
by johntaylor
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Spreadsheets to Track PP
Replies: 44
Views: 102529

Re: Spreadsheets to Track PP

Hmm pity, I'll keep on looking then. Maybe try to build something simple myself. I just started PP for two years now. First year I also took a deep dive in making my own system and took data from different sources. I made things too complicated at first and it did not work out for me. I finally kep...
by johntaylor
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Throwing in the Towel because Harry is Right!!!
Replies: 45
Views: 11649

Re: Throwing in the Towel because Harry is Right!!!

According to @tyler max drawdown was 14% and longest drawdown took 5 years:
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/p ... portfolio/
by johntaylor
Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Replies: 18
Views: 3598

Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

My european PP resulted 13.1% in 2019. I had new cash in the portfolio in januar, which I only divided in 25/25/25/25 in march.
If I had full 25/25/25/25 from begin 2019 on the result would have been 15.1%: Gold: +20.2%, Bond:+13.8%, Stock:26.8%, Cash:-0.2%
by johntaylor
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio for European investor
Replies: 5
Views: 4671

Re: Portfolio for European investor

tarentola wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:08 pm
Yes, this year gold in Europe (GBS) has gained 19%
To the best of my calculations today gold in euro had gained 23%, 3% lower then yesterday.
My eu portfolio gains for 2019 right now:
stock: +15.8%
bond: +24.6%
gold: +23.2%
cash: 0%
PP: 15.9%
by johntaylor
Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: price German LT bonds suddenly plummeted
Replies: 0
Views: 14030

price German LT bonds suddenly plummeted

In a few days time price of german 30yr bund fell strongly: https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102432 Is there a logical reason for this or is it just general 'market sentiment' ? I can't imagine it is caused by the news Christine Lagarde being new head of ecb, because general ...
by johntaylor
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why are older gold coins often pricier than new ones?
Replies: 10
Views: 4640

Re: Why are older gold coins often pricier than new ones?

For example, 1 oz gold krugerrands. Random year is cheaper than 2019 coins, fine. 1980 coins are on sale at Apmex, but they are more expensive than 2019 issue coins. Are they collectors’ items or something? Checked, but couldn't confirm. 'Old' coins are cheaper then 2019 coins here: https://www.the...
by johntaylor
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 50
Views: 13640

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:00 pm
I am also happy to answer any direct messages for people who have specific questions.
when moon, sir ? :)
by johntaylor
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3005
Views: 742055

Re: The GOLD scream room

If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person. I am only in my first year in PP and my head is spinning constantly, can't stop checking the charts. Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do. They assured me go into PP and you can ...
by johntaylor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Meaning of 1-3 yr and 10-30 yr treasury ladders
Replies: 14
Views: 7758

Re: Meaning of 1-3 yr and 10-30 yr treasury ladders

Where has Tyler posted his method? I'm getting more and more interested in hitting higher-yielding portions of the yield curve vs a solid barbell. Tyler rocks: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=949 https://portfoliocharts.com/ more about his personal versio...
by johntaylor
Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: bud split
Replies: 11
Views: 2296

Re: The GOLD scream room

thanks @Xan for making this decision. You took great caution and patience with Budd and it was fully clear this was what Budd wanted himself also. As a beginner in PP and GI I can confirm that the info on GI can be very confusing if you want to inform yourself about the basics of PP, but it also pus...
by johntaylor
Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 3042

Re: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

That's great, you shouldn't invest in anything you don't understand, checking the sorces and making your own calculation is part of the understanding process! Thanks, it encouraged me ;) I told you earlier I could reproduce your results for 2018, which was grosso modo true: your return 2018: 10.68%...
by johntaylor
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 3042

Re: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

https://www.bundesbank.de/dynamic/action/en/statistics/time-series-databases/time-series-databases/745582/745582?tsId=BBK01.WZ3429&tsTab=0&listId=www_skms_it03b&id=0 With those yields I use the PRICE function to estimate the returns, which I've found quite consistent with market price changes on re...
by johntaylor
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 6877

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

Okay, so now I am quite confident I have calculated returns and cagr's for both etf bonds and LT german bonds in such a way that they can be compared. First the overall results in a table: https://i.imgur.com/sBCxxDx.png The year returns differ quite a bit between the different funds. This triggered...
by johntaylor
Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 3042

Re: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

Bond prices never include interest payments, therefore you have to consider them to calculate historical returns. However, you must consider also the price paid for the bond to calculate the real interest (dividend) received with the coupons: In your examples, if you bought the first bund (2048) on...
by johntaylor
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 3042

is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

I am still very uncertain about how to calculate returns of potential portfolio's. Last year I had my bonds in an etf and I could calculate return by just looking what my broker showed me on actual delivered prices and dividends. But now I consider switching to real LT german bonds I have to use dat...
by johntaylor
Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 6877

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

That's the "current yield", what is usually used as "yield" is the "yield to maturity": https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldtomaturity.asp Thanks that helped. https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/r7r_KT8Q9LJSi0scT7h3hs5svz0=/618x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/bp2-5bfd67e046...
by johntaylor
Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 6877

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

During 2015 and 2016 the 30-year German bund yield went to 0.5% and even below. The current yield is 0.88% I presume what you call 'yield' is called 'rendite' at the bundesbank. I don't understand how this 'rendite' is exactly calculated, maybe someone can explain ? I understand it is different the...
by johntaylor
Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yahoo Data Accuracy
Replies: 5
Views: 1925

Re: Yahoo Data Accuracy

Kbg wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:54 am
A good free source is Tiingo. There are some restrictions on their free data, but I imagine it would cover 99% of the folks here.
Thanks for the tip. Quick look into it gives me no hits on european funds. I guess there are more then (100-99=)1% european's around here.
by johntaylor
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yahoo Data Accuracy
Replies: 5
Views: 1925

Re: Yahoo Data Accuracy

Last year I also used different data sources to calculate my different versions of portfolio. I really got completely confused by it. Digging into it the differences did not make any sense to me and asking questions about it did hardly deliver any answers: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic....
by johntaylor
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2018 Results Post Here
Replies: 26
Views: 10038

Re: 2018 Results Post Here

European PP: -1.5% 35% cash: 0% 22% bond: 5.2% 22% gold: 0.6% 22% stock: -12.7% stock: msci Europe bond: 50% exx6 etf 50% e20y etf gold: 90% gold, 10% silver IE00BSKRJX20 E20Y etf DE000A0D8Q31 EXX6 etf NL0010436671 msci Europe It is my first year on a PP and I started it in the second week of 2018. ...
by johntaylor
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 6877

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

Hello, I am still fiddling with the results of my first year EU portfolio. On bonds I had 50% exx6 (2018 return:6.1%) and 50% e20y (2018 return 4.2%). I compared the results with the returns for german LT bonds (2018 returns between 9-11%). I am rather puzzled over this big difference in the results...