Search found 27 matches

by johntaylor
Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: price German LT bonds suddenly plummeted
Replies: 0
Views: 140

price German LT bonds suddenly plummeted

In a few days time price of german 30yr bund fell strongly: https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102432 Is there a logical reason for this or is it just general 'market sentiment' ? I can't imagine it is caused by the news Christine Lagarde being new head of ecb, because general ...
by johntaylor
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why are older gold coins often pricier than new ones?
Replies: 10
Views: 291

Re: Why are older gold coins often pricier than new ones?

For example, 1 oz gold krugerrands. Random year is cheaper than 2019 coins, fine. 1980 coins are on sale at Apmex, but they are more expensive than 2019 issue coins. Are they collectors’ items or something? Checked, but couldn't confirm. 'Old' coins are cheaper then 2019 coins here: https://www.the...
by johntaylor
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 50
Views: 1706

Re: Rethinking the Permanent Portfolio

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:00 pm
I am also happy to answer any direct messages for people who have specific questions.
when moon, sir ? :)
by johntaylor
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2518
Views: 412019

Re: The GOLD scream room

If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person. I am only in my first year in PP and my head is spinning constantly, can't stop checking the charts. Or you're not paying attention. Which the PP is good at letting you do. They assured me go into PP and you can ...
by johntaylor
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Meaning of 1-3 yr and 10-30 yr treasury ladders
Replies: 12
Views: 828

Re: Meaning of 1-3 yr and 10-30 yr treasury ladders

Where has Tyler posted his method? I'm getting more and more interested in hitting higher-yielding portions of the yield curve vs a solid barbell. Tyler rocks: https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=949 https://portfoliocharts.com/ more about his personal versio...
by johntaylor
Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: bud split
Replies: 11
Views: 437

Re: The GOLD scream room

thanks @Xan for making this decision. You took great caution and patience with Budd and it was fully clear this was what Budd wanted himself also. As a beginner in PP and GI I can confirm that the info on GI can be very confusing if you want to inform yourself about the basics of PP, but it also pus...
by johntaylor
Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

That's great, you shouldn't invest in anything you don't understand, checking the sorces and making your own calculation is part of the understanding process! Thanks, it encouraged me ;) I told you earlier I could reproduce your results for 2018, which was grosso modo true: your return 2018: 10.68%...
by johntaylor
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

https://www.bundesbank.de/dynamic/action/en/statistics/time-series-databases/time-series-databases/745582/745582?tsId=BBK01.WZ3429&tsTab=0&listId=www_skms_it03b&id=0 With those yields I use the PRICE function to estimate the returns, which I've found quite consistent with market price changes on re...
by johntaylor
Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 3312

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

Okay, so now I am quite confident I have calculated returns and cagr's for both etf bonds and LT german bonds in such a way that they can be compared. First the overall results in a table: https://i.imgur.com/sBCxxDx.png The year returns differ quite a bit between the different funds. This triggered...
by johntaylor
Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

Re: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

Bond prices never include interest payments, therefore you have to consider them to calculate historical returns. However, you must consider also the price paid for the bond to calculate the real interest (dividend) received with the coupons: In your examples, if you bought the first bund (2048) on...
by johntaylor
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1008

is dividend adjusted into the price of a bond or not ?

I am still very uncertain about how to calculate returns of potential portfolio's. Last year I had my bonds in an etf and I could calculate return by just looking what my broker showed me on actual delivered prices and dividends. But now I consider switching to real LT german bonds I have to use dat...
by johntaylor
Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Europe (Germany)
Replies: 15
Views: 3312

Re: PP Europe (Germany)

That's the "current yield", what is usually used as "yield" is the "yield to maturity": https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldtomaturity.asp Thanks that helped. https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/r7r_KT8Q9LJSi0scT7h3hs5svz0=/618x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/bp2-5bfd67e046...