Search found 127 matches

by Roy
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 114
Views: 57785

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

The original PP has been the approach most doomed to fail—going back to its authoritative critics on the epic BH thread and beyond. For years it’s been—Bond bull over, Treasuries too long, too few Stocks, too much Gold (and its followers misunderstanding the role of Gold), too much money wasted in S...
by Roy
Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 25
Views: 17855

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

My bond duration is down to 5 years. Taken together with cash, they are 3 years. Definitely not HBPP. Well... there's a small HBPP in there somewhere, surrounded by a huge rind of Otherness. Historically, it hasn't mattered much. Buy federally-backed fixed income with a composite duration in the 5-...
by Roy
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Great Bond Bubble?
Replies: 25
Views: 17855

Re: The Great Bond Bubble?

My take away after re-reading both his bond artcile and the Kathy Jones piece a few times is that if you prefer to take your risk on the equity side of things keep your bond maturities short. This. And then ride that decision to the beach, as Fama might say. Or if one has committed to the HBPP—just...
by Roy
Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When all asset classes are overvalued
Replies: 20
Views: 12249

Re: When all asset classes are overvalued

It's really a pleasure to see your name pop up here and it gives me the opportunity to thank you for your many insightful posts over the years. You're right on all counts about the Larry portfolio of course and it's good to be reminded of what the original one was since he's offered so many other i...
by Roy
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When all asset classes are overvalued
Replies: 20
Views: 12249

Re: When all asset classes are overvalued

I am also a great admirer of Larry Swedroe's "Larry" (aka minimizing fat tails) portfolio which is probably as close to the PP as you can get without holding a significant chunk of gold. It has the same massive tracking error issues as the PP though and I am among the many who have found that diffi...
by Roy
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 114
Views: 57785

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

Greetings, I go back to the epic discussions on the other board, from 2008. I’m a nostalgic slob, even over things like this. Those talks remain my best memories regarding anything to do with investing, with Craig and Tex, and the usual suspects who joined in, and even the relative authorities who w...
by Roy
Sun Nov 13, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65458

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

The last 3 days are dust in the wind—just as a few bad days in 2013 were, or those 3 great days (whenever), or the years that the PP lagged the broad market, or when it outperformed it when needed most. All that is old news buried under a smooth flowing, longer-term trendline—but only if one does no...
by Roy
Sun Jun 30, 2013 5:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is it "different this time"?
Replies: 3
Views: 4102

Re: Is it "different this time"?

I wonder how many times those five words have been used—and will be used— to justify the abandonment of a good plan. 

Nevermind what emerges as the supposedly corrective ersatz plan.
by Roy
Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is WAY DOWN...:(
Replies: 30
Views: 18820

Re: PP is WAY DOWN...:(

When a portfolio has as many diverse, volatile components as the HBPP, large moves can happen fast when correlations converge, even as this fund demonstrates a placid smoothing effect over longer periods.  (And the design of this fund is long-haul preservation.)  All these things were known years ag...
by Roy
Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm Done!
Replies: 327
Views: 144972

Re: I'm Done!

Today's response to GLD and TLT underperformance was completely irrational and I apologize for starting this thread in frustration. Budd, I find nothing wrong with any of this. Being concerned with your portfolio on a day like today is only natural.  But really, what are we supposed to do?  Move in...
by Roy
Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm Done!
Replies: 327
Views: 144972

Re: I'm Done!

buddtholomew wrote: Today's response to GLD and TLT underperformance was completely irrational and I apologize for starting this thread in frustration.
Budd,

I find nothing wrong with any of this.
by Roy
Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm Done!
Replies: 327
Views: 144972

Re: I'm Done!

Guys who have been following the PP threads from the old days expect that even years of comparative underperformance will occur, most commonly in bull phases, let alone over a few days.  I think the last few years, which have been a laugher for the PP, have convinced some that comparative underperfo...
by Roy
Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When MediumTex Was Big
Replies: 17
Views: 9175

Re: When MediumTex Was Big

MediumTex wrote:
AdamA wrote: Did he try to sweep your leg?
Worse--he took a shot at my PP.
Yet another example of why pure investment talk can never die.
by Roy
Wed Jan 18, 2012 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What would make you abandon the PP?
Replies: 19
Views: 9022

Re: What would make you abandon the PP?

A strongly-worded personal letter to me from John Bogle.
by Roy
Wed Jan 18, 2012 6:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can the PP perform well when two of its asset classes are falling
Replies: 176
Views: 55610

Re: Can the PP perform well when two of its asset classes are falling

Hi, Clive.  Good to see the monkey. A few points:  In more traditional portfolios, I understand a position in foreign equities.  But I wonder if the 25% position in Gold means that the PP doesn't need any foreign equities.  It clearly does not "need" any to perform great, and that's just one less as...
by Roy
Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

Regarding the tonal issues that many investment professionals can display, I agree.  You see it up close every day, right?  Literally. Well, yes.  I have clients who are these guys!  Sometimes arrogance is the price I pay for information;  I know that going-in.  But I don't pretend it is any less a...
by Roy
Fri Jan 13, 2012 3:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

Hi, Tex, Regarding your comparisons over 3 years (perhaps even 10 years), such is a short period of recency and specifically for comparisons that include the HB PP.  Over decades, their performance and defensive qualities (the "Larry" portfolio and the HB PP) appear more similar, as might some other...
by Roy
Fri Jan 13, 2012 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

Hi, Tex: I don't doubt that owning a security or portfolio—having one's own money in the game—can offer valuable illumination.  And I don't know if Larry ever held Gold.  But I've never owned Junk Bonds, Long-Short funds, and a host of other securities, yet I feel pretty confident I've a reasonable ...
by Roy
Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

As has been discussed many times, though his approach clearly differs in large ways, there are also strong similarities between Larry's approach and what the PP has done.  (I think a basic Larry portfolio, holding 25-30% internationally-diversified equities, and the rest in Treasuries, declined abou...
by Roy
Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

Best for most folks, and most professionals, to avoid considering any of that.  But then you'd have shorter and fewer threads! I look forward to the day when the only threads going on here have nothing to do with investing because nobody is worrying about their money and can talk about other things...
by Roy
Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

I like Larry's books, but this shifting fixed income stuff is wrong. You can't have it both ways. Either market timing works for stocks and bonds or it doesn't. Saying it doesn't work for stocks and then implying it does work for bonds is wholly inconsistent with the idea of passive investing. Trut...
by Roy
Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

One problem with a shifting strategy in fixed income—essentially, Yield Curve surfing—is that it may not work.  (Even Larry mentions this in one book.)  Last year was a good example of it not working as legions of folks stayed short, and a famous Guru ascended into his starship and left Treasuries a...
by Roy
Wed Jan 11, 2012 8:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 92
Views: 46334

Re: Larry Swedroe's Comments on the Permanent Portfolio

Re: Gold vs. Inflation Larry is not incorrect;  in isolation, it has lagged inflation for long periods.  His is a response to the claim that the Gold is in the PP "for inflation".  (Of course, it is about how the 4 assets work together that matters.)  In one thread on Bogleheads, he did adjust his n...
by Roy
Wed Jan 04, 2012 7:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Important News: A New Permanent Portfolio Book Is On The Way!
Replies: 116
Views: 52896

Re: Important News: A New Permanent Portfolio Book Is On The Way!

Great news, guys. At parties, everyone tells me how diversified they are (since their advisor assured them of such), the same with books, articles, blogs.  I'd like to see a section on how the PP is truly different than some of the more popular approaches that also claim "diversification" or imply s...
by Roy
Sun Jan 01, 2012 12:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio 2011 Results
Replies: 23
Views: 13793

Re: Permanent Portfolio 2011 Results

Nice job, Craig, and Happy New Year to all. I keep hearing, every year, that the Permanent Portfolio is all about recency .  Then, I think 40 years of this sort of recency ain't too bad.  But the last few years, in the face of such turmoil, has really been instructive.  However, I keep hearing that ...