Search found 132 matches

by HappyMan
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Basic portfolio that beats the index, once a year reconfiguration
Replies: 3
Views: 2037

Basic portfolio that beats the index, once a year reconfiguration

All, As gratitude to many wonderful investors here who have been extremely helpful, I am sharing this basic portfolio that does beat S&P in the long run, and yet it is easy to maintain. Reconfiguration is required only once a year - once you get ready to meet a New Year, sell extra and buy what is m...
by HappyMan
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Paul Novell's flagship strategy: SPY-COMP

ochotona wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 pm
...

Yes, to go risk-on you need above the SMA or all 6 economic indicators green. He has an error % on top of the SMA, so it would be slightly more than the SMA.
Is this "secret sauce" on top of SMA your addition or his?
by HappyMan
Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

If tactical models go risk-on with a v-shaped recovery in stonks, I'm going to repeat what I did in 2019... express the risk preference by buying exactly what the Fed said they're going to buy... high yield bonds , iShares HYG, and gradually trade in the HYG for equities if the "V" sticks and we do...
by HappyMan
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan
Replies: 11
Views: 7213

Re: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan

Here’s How 18 Different Portfolios Have Performed Since 1970

https://fourpillarfreedom.com/heres-how ... ince-1970/
by HappyMan
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

ochotona wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:58 pm
The GEM portfolio is in Bonds for April 2020 (AGG, BND, SCHZ).

And by now I can confirm that Paul Novell's SPY-COMP model got out of equities a month ago, on 2/28/2020. It's faster out, faster in.
Thanks for the update!
by HappyMan
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan
Replies: 11
Views: 7213

Re: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan

Fidelity shuts three Treasury funds to new investors

https://www.ft.com/content/c0bc0af1-8e8 ... 7a0a0d7248
by HappyMan
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Kat Klub
Replies: 593
Views: 346977

Re: Kat Klub

vnatale wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Since I have 19 total pets I thought I'd split this up into three posts....
Cute pets! Thanks for sharing!
by HappyMan
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Ochotona,

Well said!

Did not know you work as a psychologist part-time. ;-)
by HappyMan
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:29 pm
HappyMan wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:28 pm
Ochotona,

What is your rule for getting back in?

Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
I can't give signals away, it's not my intellectual property
No need. Very much like you did this time. Tell about a signal after enough time passed.
by HappyMan
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Ochotona,

What is your rule for getting back in?

Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
by HappyMan
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Impressive!

How often those e-mails come?
by HappyMan
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 296711

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Congrats!

Did the newsletter explicitly say "Get out!" or was it your calculations based on the information in the newsletter?
by HappyMan
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan
Replies: 11
Views: 7213

Re: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan

I get a feeling some people could use a batch of positive statistics. Here it is. Yesterday was a Monday, and the S&P-500 index fell 7,6% in one day. In the table below, there recorded all the previous instances for the last 70 years, when the index dropped more than 5% on a Monday. Nine instances i...
by HappyMan
Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan
Replies: 11
Views: 7213

Re: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan

If volatility disturbs your sleep, you need to re-evaluate your risk ratio. Claiming that they can handle 25-30% drawdown for long-term profit, some investors begin to panic at minus 10-15%. The attached table illustrates a simple thing: based on the previous history, what profit one should expect a...
by HappyMan
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 70
Views: 50510

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

Thank you IG for allowing me to post some graphs and tables here. After some thought given to the nature of my postings and the character of your thread, I decided it would be more fitting to have a separate thread for that. Here is the link, https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f...
by HappyMan
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan
Replies: 11
Views: 7213

Re: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan

Here is an interesting piece of statistics in the light of yesterday's drop. In the last ten years, there have been 242 days, when S&P dropped 1% or more. In the table, all the cases are spread over the days of a week. The spread is quite even, as one can see. The drawdowns are also somewhat even fr...
by HappyMan
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan
Replies: 11
Views: 7213

Graphs and thoughts from HappyMan

Hi, The Insurance Guy has been kind enough to let me post some of the graphs and thoughts that I have come across concerning S&P, momentum, and other market-related topics. I think it is time to start its own thread. Thoughts, reflections, and graphs are welcome. Not sure I can always provide the di...
by HappyMan
Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 70
Views: 50510

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

Does anyone read fund perspectives? My broker has sent me one for SPDR fund. I reckon besides the maintenance fees it is not that helpful.
by HappyMan
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 70
Views: 50510

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

Sorry man. Can't seem to find the source. Have saved only the table.
by HappyMan
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 70
Views: 50510

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

Hi D1984,

Got my piece from a professional network. Try contacting them and see if they point you to the source.

Let us know how it goes. ;)
by HappyMan
Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 70
Views: 50510

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

Robeco has published interesting statistics. Interestingly enough, the Momentum factor is ahead of the market in all the decades, starting from 1930s.
by HappyMan
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1195
Views: 255498

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:23 pm
added to uso (oil ) and gld today
Did you add to your limit order at 12.33 from 1/9 ?