Search found 38 matches

by WhiteElephant
Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:44 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 269
Views: 95183

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

It looks like the fed wont let stocks drop more than 30%. A 1% rate change in EDV will move it 30%. You can balance the volatility, if they sell 100 year bonds you could hold less of them. Its possible that eventually the 30 year will just swing from 1% to -1% like I suppose happens in Japan/german...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: European inflation-linked bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 1327

Re: European inflation-linked bonds?

I assume he means something like iShares ICBI? Not sure how though as he also states: 'Obviously you wouldn’t buy government bonds under any condition'.
by WhiteElephant
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 1842

Re: Bonds

Dutch/German 30y treasury yield is negative, inflation here is currently 1.6%, yeah they look pretty unattractive to me...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3019
Views: 806193

Re: The GOLD scream room

The PP and Gold have performed above any of my expectations. I stopped tracking Golds performance after loss harvesting to offset gains in other assets and switching between GLD/IAU but according to VG I now have a 92% gain LTD on my holdings ;D It feels great (and weird!) to have a portfolio that'...
by WhiteElephant
Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:18 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 6469

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

It's pretty easy to make behavioral mistakes when you start to deviate from the total market. It seems clear that a lot of people just added SCV to their portfolio because of backtesting. To switch from SCV to LCG right when LCG is outperforming seems like pure performance chasing to me. You can alw...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil
Replies: 56
Views: 6322

An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil

I'm mostly lurking this board as there are usually some interesting threads about the PP. Of course I noticed the political threads lately and I've been pretty interested in them. As a Dutch citizen this board gives me a different perspective of what's going on in the US. What struck me is how compl...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolios - When Harry met Benjamin
Replies: 18
Views: 3028

Re: Portfolios - When Harry met Benjamin

Like the idea. 30% gold might be a bit too much for most people, 25% seems to be a kind of upper limit. How about 40/40 with 20% gold, like the golden butterfly. Msci world, bonds in your own currency, plus some gold should make a pretty solid portfolio. Easy to implement in most countries. And yeah...
by WhiteElephant
Sun May 24, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 6469

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

It's been so long since people were suggesting to actively over-weight tech stocks. The problem with tech is: everybody is expecting tech stocks to do very well. So in order to get a better return than the general market, tech has to do even better than expected. If you really want large tech/growth...
by WhiteElephant
Mon May 04, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 4940

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

“ I would argue that what we think of as 'odds' are really just being calculated from a relatively short time frame of late twentieth century technological development and prosperity. Taken from a longer term viewpoint human history is much more fraught with upheavel. The later half of the twentiet...
by WhiteElephant
Mon May 04, 2020 2:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 4940

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

“ I would argue that what we think of as 'odds' are really just being calculated from a relatively short time frame of late twentieth century technological development and prosperity. Taken from a longer term viewpoint human history is much more fraught with upheavel. The later half of the twentiet...
by WhiteElephant
Sat May 02, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 4940

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

I recently reread Deep Risk, and I think it offered compelling arguments against the 4x25 split of the PP. It also opened my eyes to the possibility that the PP might have too much deflation protection by having three assets that can do really well during deflation: bonds, cash and gold. I'm not mak...
by WhiteElephant
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Barbell vs. ITT's in a zero interest rate environment
Replies: 11
Views: 2491

Re: Barbell vs. ITT's in a zero interest rate environment

Lately I've been thinking about this issue as well. The Dutch 30Y treasury rate sits at zero and Germany has negative long term rates. The yield of most saving accounts is also around 0%. My current allocation to LT bonds are individual Dutch LT's and I was thinking of maybe switching to a euro hedg...
by WhiteElephant
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The tech-dumbell portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10611

Re: The tech-dumbell portfolio

Oh man, my hands are itching to 'optimize' that chart by adding some stocks and/or bonds 8)
Not doing it!
by WhiteElephant
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The tech-dumbell portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 10611

Re: The tech-dumbell portfolio

Interesting, I like the simplicity! What is the reason you didn't include a small stock allocation at all? Can a portfolio like this act as a sort of counterweight/inverse correlation to your career? I can imagine that for a disaster portfolio you'd want to own some stocks as it's very likely to be ...
by WhiteElephant
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio vs PP
Replies: 4
Views: 1137

Re: Desert Portfolio vs PP

There has been some discussion about treasury duration for the Desert Portfolio, but I think it the duration was 5 years instead of 10. That would reduce the outperformance somewhat.
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond duration compensation
Replies: 14
Views: 5367

Re: Bond duration compensation

A 3% yield might still look appealing, but what about long-term yields <1%, like Germany? When are yields too low? 30year German bonds are yielding 0.8% currently, that’s comparable with a 2-year CD with basically zero risk. The volatility of yield changes at such a low starting point will be explos...
by WhiteElephant
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond duration compensation
Replies: 14
Views: 5367

Re: Bond duration compensation

Thanks for your post Kevin K. Because of concern about long term bonds, I adjusted my portfolio by lowering duration. Currently you gain very little by holding on to long-term bonds while the potential downside risk is incredible. It's probably even worse for a Eurozone PP, like mine. Maybe rates wi...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3019
Views: 806193

Re: The GOLD scream room

When you start a PP you know that gold can easily go down for 10-20 years. As long as one or more other assets make up for it. PP has performed exactly as expected. It's not a portfolio to make money, it's for protecting your money. There was a lot of talk about 'solid 3-5% real returns', but I don'...
by WhiteElephant
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 8839

Re: Wellesley

Good point about the possible need for simplicity when for some reason you cannot do that yourself anymore. Setting up and maintaining the PP seems very easy to me, but I know most people around me have have zero experience or interest in maintaining such a portfolio. A one-fund solution like Welles...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Opinions on my variable portfolios
Replies: 5
Views: 3007

Re: Opinions on my variable portfolios

Hi Jeffreyalan, what is your goal with your Variable Portfolio? Are you planning to find an allocation and stick with it?

I think it would help if you add the names of the ETF's.
by WhiteElephant
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: iShares europe lowers fees
Replies: 0
Views: 2448

iShares europe lowers fees

Some nice fee reductions for 4 Irish ishares etf's. The fee reduction from 0.33% to 0.12% of the iShares MSCI EMU etf is particularly interesting for Eurozone investors! http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/blackrock-cuts-charges-on-multi-billion-etf-range/a1126023?ref=wealth_manager_all_storie...
by WhiteElephant
Wed May 30, 2018 3:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Permanent Portfolio Variant
Replies: 25
Views: 11065

Re: My Permanent Portfolio Variant

That's a great allocation!
Using only two funds is a nice simplified way of implementing the PP, and it's still widely diversified. The international exposure and the silver might help or not, but it likely won't make a huge difference either way.

Are you going to keep some cash on the side as well?
by WhiteElephant
Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: European PP, update 6 months after starting
Replies: 43
Views: 17471

Re: European PP, update 6 months after starting

Hi Juandelarocha, -0.5% and 1.8% in a year doesn't mean much and sounds to me like you're focussing too much on short-term results. Both the PP and a more conventional stock-heavy porftfolio can go nowhere for 10 years. 1 year results are meaningless. It also seems you were expecting something diffe...
by WhiteElephant
Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:55 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Getting back to my previous gold allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 3358

Re: Getting back to my previous gold allocation

Hi Libertarian666,

If I may ask, what is your strategy with the other 30% of your portfolio? With 70% gold, my guess is that you don't have a lot of faith in stocks and bonds? Just curious about the portfolio allocation.
by WhiteElephant
Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)
Replies: 63
Views: 32034

Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe (follow-up)

I believe the US withholding tax is 30% of the dividend yield. This happens before you pay your local taxes. Depending on the treaties between your country and the US you might be able to get some of the 30% back. Irish domiciled ETF’s only pay 15% withholding tax on US assets so that could be a bet...