Search found 38 matches

by WhiteElephant
Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:44 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 79518

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

It looks like the fed wont let stocks drop more than 30%. A 1% rate change in EDV will move it 30%. You can balance the volatility, if they sell 100 year bonds you could hold less of them. Its possible that eventually the 30 year will just swing from 1% to -1% like I suppose happens in Japan/german...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: European inflation-linked bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 695

Re: European inflation-linked bonds?

I assume he means something like iShares ICBI? Not sure how though as he also states: 'Obviously you wouldn’t buy government bonds under any condition'.
by WhiteElephant
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 971

Re: Bonds

Dutch/German 30y treasury yield is negative, inflation here is currently 1.6%, yeah they look pretty unattractive to me...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2961
Views: 680378

Re: The GOLD scream room

The PP and Gold have performed above any of my expectations. I stopped tracking Golds performance after loss harvesting to offset gains in other assets and switching between GLD/IAU but according to VG I now have a 92% gain LTD on my holdings ;D It feels great (and weird!) to have a portfolio that'...
by WhiteElephant
Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:18 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 4277

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

It's pretty easy to make behavioral mistakes when you start to deviate from the total market. It seems clear that a lot of people just added SCV to their portfolio because of backtesting. To switch from SCV to LCG right when LCG is outperforming seems like pure performance chasing to me. You can alw...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil
Replies: 67
Views: 3735

An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil

I'm mostly lurking this board as there are usually some interesting threads about the PP. Of course I noticed the political threads lately and I've been pretty interested in them. As a Dutch citizen this board gives me a different perspective of what's going on in the US. What struck me is how compl...
by WhiteElephant
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolios - When Harry met Benjamin
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: Portfolios - When Harry met Benjamin

Like the idea. 30% gold might be a bit too much for most people, 25% seems to be a kind of upper limit. How about 40/40 with 20% gold, like the golden butterfly. Msci world, bonds in your own currency, plus some gold should make a pretty solid portfolio. Easy to implement in most countries. And yeah...
by WhiteElephant
Sun May 24, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 4277

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

It's been so long since people were suggesting to actively over-weight tech stocks. The problem with tech is: everybody is expecting tech stocks to do very well. So in order to get a better return than the general market, tech has to do even better than expected. If you really want large tech/growth...
by WhiteElephant
Mon May 04, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 3524

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

“ I would argue that what we think of as 'odds' are really just being calculated from a relatively short time frame of late twentieth century technological development and prosperity. Taken from a longer term viewpoint human history is much more fraught with upheavel. The later half of the twentiet...
by WhiteElephant
Mon May 04, 2020 2:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 3524

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

“ I would argue that what we think of as 'odds' are really just being calculated from a relatively short time frame of late twentieth century technological development and prosperity. Taken from a longer term viewpoint human history is much more fraught with upheavel. The later half of the twentiet...
by WhiteElephant
Sat May 02, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 27
Views: 3524

Re: William Bernstein on the Permanent Portfolio

I recently reread Deep Risk, and I think it offered compelling arguments against the 4x25 split of the PP. It also opened my eyes to the possibility that the PP might have too much deflation protection by having three assets that can do really well during deflation: bonds, cash and gold. I'm not mak...
by WhiteElephant
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Barbell vs. ITT's in a zero interest rate environment
Replies: 11
Views: 1597

Re: Barbell vs. ITT's in a zero interest rate environment

Lately I've been thinking about this issue as well. The Dutch 30Y treasury rate sits at zero and Germany has negative long term rates. The yield of most saving accounts is also around 0%. My current allocation to LT bonds are individual Dutch LT's and I was thinking of maybe switching to a euro hedg...