Search found 386 matches

by jhogue
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 67
Views: 14334

Re: Worst investing year ever...

From a historical standpoint, it has proved impossible to repeal the business cycle. Think of it this way: the guys (in this case, central bankers), who are trying to do the controlled burn are just as likely to start a fire so big it gets out of their control and they themselves get roasted alive. ...
by jhogue
Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I bond rate November 2019
Replies: 14
Views: 3286

Re: I bond rate November 2019

What strategies are folks using to decide (that aren't simply trying to predict the future) between normal Ts and I-bonds. : If you are just starting, don’t buy STTs or savings bonds until your TMMF covers 6 months living expenses. After that, add STTs and savings bonds in equal amounts. When Cash ...
by jhogue
Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: I bond rate November 2019
Replies: 14
Views: 3286

Re: I bond rate November 2019

I will be buying my annual allotment of I-bonds at the end of January and paper I-bonds with my 2019 tax return shortly after that. The current I-bond yield is 2.22%, easily beating the 1 year T-bill (1.60%) and the 10 year note (1.78%). I see little or no prospect of higher fixed or variable rates ...
by jhogue
Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie question
Replies: 18
Views: 3917

Re: Newbie question

I started out 100% in TLT when I switched to the HBPP in 2013. It is the simplest way to begin. After about a year in TLT, I switched to individual 30 year T-bonds, which are easy to purchase on the secondary market through a Fidelity brokerage account. Unlike ETFs and mutual funds, there are no com...
by jhogue
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio simplification vs. diversification
Replies: 7
Views: 393

Re: Portfolio simplification vs. diversification

I have been trying to simplify portfolio clutter while simultaneously tweaking overall tax efficiency: 1. I closed two relatively smallish accounts, a SEP IRA and my wife’s traditional IRA, by converting and consolidating them both into our Roth IRAs. I did this at the same I did my annual Roth IRA ...
by jhogue
Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Roth IRA question for old fogies
Replies: 2
Views: 152

Re: Roth IRA question for old fogies

I am pretty certain you can take the bump up in the year that you turn 50.
by jhogue
Fri Dec 27, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Homelessness on the Rise?
Replies: 38
Views: 1085

Re: Homelessness on the Rise?

Never forget the first law of political economy: Whatever you subsidize, you will get more of, whether it is B-52 bombers or homeless encampments. LA, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle all have really nice weather and really nice mayors who are dedicated to the proposition that their homeless con...
by jhogue
Wed Dec 25, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Failure of the ebook model
Replies: 10
Views: 354

Re: Failure of the ebook model

As the article points out, e-books have not destroyed the paper publishing industry. However, I would point out that some e-books are better designed than others. I have a kindle app for my i-phone and one of the few titles I keep there is the e-version of craigr and Medium Tex's Permanent Portfolio...
by jhogue
Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 401K rules are changing
Replies: 3
Views: 284

Re: 401K rules are changing

1. The legislation is called the SECURE Act. The advertised aim is to encourage retirement saving. Whether it would actually do this is arguable. 2. I think that Sophie's instincts are correct. Those most likely to be made more financially secure by the provisions of this law are insurance salesmen ...
by jhogue
Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads
Replies: 34
Views: 20297

Re: Treasury Direct account security discussion at Bogleheads

Exactly. Just as in the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, it will be impossible in advance to predict where, when, and how the next liquidity crisis will strike. The point of holding T-bills in a brokerage, I bonds in a safe deposit box or TreasuryDirect account, and a stash of greenbacks somewhe...
by jhogue
Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 1084

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

I live in the EU and am going to buy German "bunds" which are available (secondary market) through my broker. I have a few questions: 1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that...
by jhogue
Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Replies: 181
Views: 38967

Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Don’t forget, the govt can print money. So getting your money back is not really the issue. Far more likely problems are legal delays and in the ZA (new acronym for Zombie Apocalypse) inflationary devaluation. To me for the first and most likely problem, treasury direct is a no brainer. Just you an...