Search found 6 matches

by feicfeic123
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 6998

Re: PP in non QE world

I would rather own bonds when they pay 5% than when they pay 2%. I don't need to ride US treasuries from 2 to 5% to make that decision. I happen to think QE has distorted the price of all assets. If such mispricing has AIDED the PP I cannot imagine that ITS UNWINDING will also help it. That is what ...
by feicfeic123
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Moving out of the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 5104

Re: Moving out of the PP

The dollar was weak from 2000 until 2009 or so. Au went from 300 to 1900. PP will protect from currency you through Au. Assuming the currency comes back at some point (big assumption I know), you will remain covered and recover totally when the currency comes back.
by feicfeic123
Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 6998

Re: PP in non QE world

The PP is designed to operate in a world where the markets are influenced by central bank actions, or at least actions external to the market itself. I think it would become irrelevant if all outside forces magically disappeared, which is highly unlikely Trillions of dollars in QE worldwide is uber ...
by feicfeic123
Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 6998

Re: PP in non QE world

There really has been no point in holding bonds since mid 2013. I thought the bond correction would have started then it didn't. Brexit will turn out to have been the high point in he bond market and that was mid 2016. 3 yrs of bonds yielding 1.5-3%. Look QE was an "experiment" that was without prec...
by feicfeic123
Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 6998

Re: PP in non QE world

The point about QE is: PP will do surely do well in an uber money supply rise situation. Now what if money supply doesn't rise as it has? How about dumping the 25% in bonds? Did it really make sense to hold bonds with the US 10yr at 1.6%?

33% gold
33% cash
33% stocks
by feicfeic123
Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 6998

PP in non QE world

Two points on the PP: 1-Central banks world wide have purchased $7 trillion in bonds the last 7-8 years. This has had a huge artificial positive effect on the bond portion of the portfolio while not really affecting the stock and gold portions. What happens as central banks move to sell those bonds?...