Search found 83 matches

by Jeffreyalan
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BOJ Largest Shareholder of stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 3137

BOJ Largest Shareholder of stocks

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bank-of-Japan-to-be-top-shareholder-of-Japan-stocks Just when I think conspiracy sites like ZeroHedge are total bunk, their theories that the global economy is just a gigantic illusion waiting to have the curtain pulled away seem more realistic when I read an...
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: For JeffreyAlan
Replies: 4
Views: 9959

Re: For JeffreyAlan

It seems like the OP of that thread has a different idea than mine. He seems to be market timing. Other parts of the thread show him to be invested in Crypto and options. I was more thinking of just walking away completely from the worry or stress of investing and markets and concentrating on how to...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 642755

Re: Stock scream room

The case for 100% cash is a lot stronger than 100% Gold or Stocks IMO. 100% stocks could easily lose you 50% in a year and make take many, many years to recover. Cash will not ever do that to you unless you are talking about runaway inflation. Correct me if I am wrong on that. When I say I think abo...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 642755

Re: Stock scream room

How do you guys stay the course with your portfolios? I have been in the Desert Portfolio for a couple of years and it has done well for me. However, whenever I read about current events (robots taking jobs, Democratic Socialists, Govt Debt, End of the bull market etc) it makes me want to go to all ...
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 412605

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I have never looked under the hood of TQQQ or TMF. How much at risk are these funds of going to zero (or getting shut down) like the XIV was?
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 412605

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Kbg wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:28 pm
I'll post on the below from time to time:

2012-2018
UST/TQQQ/VGSH 70/20/10 (The Desertish Risk Parity bullet): 11.62/-14.33


Just because I like to know such things, how did you decide on 70/20/10 vs 60/30/10 or even just 70/30/0?
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What is "stock" any more?
Replies: 3
Views: 5631

What is "stock" any more?

Since most people on this board invest in the PP or a similar portfolio, I assume that most believe in stocks as an asset class that respond to certain economic scenarios. Is the thought that stock is an individual ownership in a company and you reap the benefits and risks of that company sort of pa...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 412605

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hey it's the end of the month, time for some results reporting! I implemented a leveraged Desert portfolio-ish at the end of last year. The mix is 70% UST, 20% TQQQ and 10% VGSH. I'm adding a little bit each month to it that will auto rebalance into the portfolio on M1. YTD Starting mix w/no change...
by Jeffreyalan
Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP/VP Strategy Sanity Check
Replies: 40
Views: 18820

Re: PP/VP Strategy Sanity Check

Just a thought but I have been using The Desert Portfolio for over a year and I am extremely pleased with the returns and low volitility. It has really helped me sleep at night and not be overly concerned with the daily market gyrations. I am in ETFs: IEF 60% MGC 15% SLY 15% GLDM 10% It may not be t...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question on drawdowns
Replies: 1
Views: 1892

Question on drawdowns

I have a question on drawdowns. I see a lot of concern about drawdowns. Pardon my ignorance but unless the drawdown happens in the first year or so then is it as much of a concern? I started doing a Desert Portfolio about 3-4 years ago. I am averaging about 4.5% a year, much better than the return o...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Question on duration vs maturity
Replies: 4
Views: 3385

Question on duration vs maturity

Can anyone educate me on what I should be looking at for a bond ETF when it comes to maturity vs duration? For example, I want to target the 10 year Treasury in an ETF. IEF has a duration of 7.39 and an avg maturity of 8.49. TLH has a duration of 10.84 and an avg maturity of 15.02. Which of those nu...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 412605

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Not related, I moved a small amount of money as a test case to M1 Finance. Thus far, I like it a a lot. However, I’m not committing much until I see how their executions are. I have been using M1 Finance for a while now. I think it is perfect for a PP or something similar! Have you done any trade a...
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 412605

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Kbg wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:03 am

Not related, I moved a small amount of money as a test case to M1 Finance. Thus far, I like it a a lot. However, I’m not committing much until I see how their executions are.
I have been using M1 Finance for a while now. I think it is perfect for a PP or something similar!
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think funds like BIL or SHY are brilliant replacements for cash. How do you feel about the safety of ETFS that hold Treasuries? I am contemplating keeping a stash of cash there and sucking up the .15 expense ratio instead of having to managing a 1-2 year treasury ladder. VGSH is .07. If you go wi...
by Jeffreyalan
Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

Kbg wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:40 pm


I think funds like BIL or SHY are brilliant replacements for cash.
How do you feel about the safety of ETFS that hold Treasuries? I am contemplating keeping a stash of cash there and sucking up the .15 expense ratio instead of having to managing a 1-2 year treasury ladder.
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think what I am struggling with are the "risk" factors. Now that we are a one-income family, we can less afford to take financial hits. But we also need to make our money grow as much as possible. That is the dilemma. Should I just put our money in the local bank money market account, earn 2.35% ...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I think what I am struggling with are the "risk" factors. Now that we are a one-income family, we can less afford to take financial hits. But we also need to make our money grow as much as possible. That is the dilemma. Should I just put our money in the local bank money market account, earn 2.35% a...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

For Desert I would mix IEI and IEF ETFs in order to arrive at a 5 year intermediate average duration. IEF 7-10 to me seems to be longer than what is meant by "intermediate". Yes, these things are not strictly defined. I thought that the Desert Portfolio specifically called for 10 year Treasuries as...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

I am using ETFs for the portfolio: 60% IEF (iShares 7-10 Treasury) 10% IAU (iShares Gold) 15% MGC (Vanguard Large Cap) 15% SLY (SPDR Small Cap) I use M1 Finance as my broker. They are perfect to run such a portfolio. I can deposit $500 there and they will buy $500 in the exact percentages I specifie...
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

Would most feel comfortable keeping 100% of your savings in the Desert Portfolio? Is it safe enough from major losses and wild swings? In the year I have been invested in it, it has been fairly docile.
by Jeffreyalan
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 26
Views: 17062

Desert Portfolio Question

I have a question for the group. I decided about a year ago to run a Desert Portfolio (60% 10 year Treasury, 30% TSM, 10% Gold) for my savings instead of the traditional 4x PP. It just about broke even last year which is what you would expect given the market A backtest of this portfolio from 2008 s...
by Jeffreyalan
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2018 Results Post Here
Replies: 26
Views: 17104

Re: 2018 Results Post Here

Desert Portfolio

-1.15%

IEF (7-10 yr Treasury) 60%
IAU (Gold) 10%
VTI (US Stocks) 30%
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 67
Views: 37028

Re: Worst investing year ever...

Any love here for The Desert Portfolio that has outperformed the PP since 2008 with less volitility? The Desert Portfolio was designed for someone skittish about holding gold, and it does very well though doesn't allow for as high a withdrawal rate as the PP/GB. Its weakness is performance during a...
by Jeffreyalan
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 67
Views: 37028

Re: Worst investing year ever...

Any love here for The Desert Portfolio that has outperformed the PP since 2008 with less volitility?
by Jeffreyalan
Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold, What is it Good For?
Replies: 25
Views: 16021

Re: Gold, What is it Good For?

The question asked a few posts back is a good one. If Central Banks hold almost 20% of the world’s gold and if some of them (like Russia) are stocking up on it, does that tell me as an individual investor that it needs to be a part of my portfolio? Or are their curcumstances different?