Search found 153 matches

by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 25
Views: 11083

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

But then, what do you exactly mean by EU PP? Ultimately, Germany or France don't control the euro either, they might have more informal pull over the ECB than Greece, but I still wouldn't want to invest in debt guaranteed by "pull". And all productive economies in the EU except for Denmark and Swed...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 25
Views: 11083

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

I did not mention it in my original post, but the euro introduces another set of problems altogether. Sovereign bonds denominated in the issuer's currency are assumed to be free of credit risk, since the issuer always cannot run out of the monetary unit it creates. However, no eurozone country has ...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 25
Views: 11083

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

I would not replace gold with the USD. I would, if possible, replace Argentinian bonds and bills with American ones, and Argentinian TSM fund with American or global one. And if impossible, dollar banknotes would still be better investment than peso-denominated debt. Ahh, I follow. In the case of A...
by blue_ruin17
Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 25
Views: 11083

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

However, I still cannot understand why exactly wouldn't a standard US-based PP work for any person anywhere in the world provided they have a convenient way to invest in US securities and the local currency is freely and legally convertible. If the portfolio generates real returns, is it really imp...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 37
Views: 31688

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Over the years, the cash slice of the PP has grown on me the most. One of the reasons I love the PP is that it provides an integrated framework for merging "emergency funds" (i.e. x months/years of living expenses) into the portfolio management process: it gives cash a job; invites it to be a member...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 62327

Re: 2023 Returns

9.3% nominal, 5.2% real (according to inflationcalculator.ca) for my Canadian classic PP. Solid rebound from last year; still recovering from the 2022 draw-down. 2024 prediction: LTTs will be the winning asset ; bearish on gold because I think deflation is the real threat (and so does the yield curv...
by blue_ruin17
Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP: the cockroach of investing strategies
Replies: 2
Views: 4144

The PP: the cockroach of investing strategies

I was browsing through passages that I highlighted years ago in the book Family Wealth Management (2013) and I came across a paragraph that perfectly encapsulates the classic PP approach. I thought I'd share it because it made me laugh, but also because it reminded me that the seemingly dumb simplic...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Dec 25, 2023 7:26 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 15738

Re: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2023 11:31 am
I jumped on CBIL literally the day it was launched and available.

So long ZFS!! We hardly knew ye!
I had settled for CMR. In the trash it goes!
by blue_ruin17
Sun Dec 24, 2023 8:35 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 15738

Canada (finally) gets a T-Bill ETF

https://horizonsetfs.com/ETF/cbil/

No provincial exposure, no Ontario Pension Plan crap, no commercial paper...just pure, unadulterated federal government treasury bills.

15 to 20 years late, but good to finally have this as an option.
by blue_ruin17
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 101052

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

All stock works great, until it doesn't. But pretty good odds that you might leave heirs considerably wealthier in the average case compared to other asset allocations. The third generation rule of thumb however is that there's also a good chance that such heirs will just waste that wealth away any...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 101052

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. Stock heavy investors are more inclined to looking to have that and also hope to see substantial wealth expansion. They'll cite that in the worst...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Aug 02, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 101052

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters. There are certain potential long-term environments in which the best we might be able to do is to limit losses rather than maximize gains. In such "defens...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 101052

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Morgan Houssel likes to say having a diversified portfolio means "always saying I'm sorry." As for LTT's....if you believe in David Bahnsen in this interview on Jonah Goldberg's Remnant Podcast, we're looking at long term deflation. If so LTT's might be handy, even with these pitiful rates. (at the...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 101052

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun. [...] Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP. Over the past couple of years, I've be...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 101052

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

As an avid reader of Gyroscopic and Bogleheads threads from years, even a decade ago, this thread gave me a strange sense of deja vu. It is remarkable how quaint the turmoil of the past seems when viewed in retrospect. I can't help but feel that all this panic about LTT will one day seem amusing (.....
by blue_ruin17
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safe deposit boxes: Revisited
Replies: 27
Views: 8359

Safe deposit boxes: Revisited

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Safe_deposit_vault_after_EF5_tornado.jpg Safe deposit vault in Joplin, Missouri after the 2011 Joplin tornado, remaining intact despite the destruction of the bank that housed it. The "safe deposit box for gold storage" debate is as old as the Per...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Adding new funds - advanced
Replies: 7
Views: 2733

Re: Adding new funds - advanced

There was an epic thread about this a few years back...I seem to remember that most prefer the "add to the lagging asset" approach. Ultimately it probably comes down mostly to temperament and personal disposition though. I have a tough time putting money into an asset that is doing really well, for ...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?
Replies: 26
Views: 8980

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm
GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.
100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie Question
Replies: 10
Views: 2444

Re: Newbie Question

I have some physical silver. Its my SHTF money. Gold is too valuable to buy food and fuel with. My silver is strictly an insurance policy. If it never pays out, my kids inherit it. A practical reason to not use silver in the Permanent Portfolio is that the bid/ask spreads at a dealer are very steep ...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 3971

Re: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio

Thank you very much for the time you took to answeer me!!! I still need to figure out what I will do concerning the LT bonds... That is very hard for me to buy something that has negative yield. I come from deep value investing (net-net stocks) so I am kind of allergic to something that screams" ex...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 3971

Re: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio

1. 30Y German bonds which is the safest bond in the Euro zone  is -0.12% so a guaranteed loss after 30 years not even taking into account the inflation for the 30Y.So, I have the impression that I have to change the portfolio and not take LT bonds but more cash.Normally those high quality bonds are...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: SS & the PP
Replies: 20
Views: 5455

Re: SS & the PP

LTT's are a safe haven asset that hedge against periods of deflation, economic contraction, and fear. During a deflationary crisis, LTTs spike, compensate for losses in stocks and/or gold, and provide the capacity to rebalance capital into those assets at discount prices. SS is not a flight-to-safet...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 15
Views: 5335

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

Never underestimate just how long a roll of central banking duct-tape is or how long it'll stick. Brilliant! For Canada, I'll bet gold. Heard the other day that Trudeau created more debt during this term than every other PMs before him COMBINED! Didn't verify this but I wouldn't be surprised if it ...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 15
Views: 5335

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

My vote: Stocks. For Canada, I'll bet gold. But of course, I will not be surprised if I'm wrong. Never underestimate just how long a roll of central banking duct-tape is or how long it'll stick. https://i.postimg.cc/wxtF8nmt/Screenshot-2021-01-03-20-07-53.png https://i.postimg.cc/CLkNdDJS/Screensho...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another great article by Tyler
Replies: 12
Views: 4511

Re: Another great article by Tyler

25% Vanguard total world VTWAX 25% Long bonds (how long?) in currency X 25% Gold 25% Savings account in currency X Anything wrong with this portfolio Some remarks from the perspective of the orthodox PP: 1. Domestic TSM is preferable to 100% international stocks. The PP is essentially designed to w...