Search found 144 matches

by blue_ruin17
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7968

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

All stock works great, until it doesn't. But pretty good odds that you might leave heirs considerably wealthier in the average case compared to other asset allocations. The third generation rule of thumb however is that there's also a good chance that such heirs will just waste that wealth away any...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7968

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That really is the whole point of the PP, isn't it? PP investors tend to be self-selecting conservative, defensive stewards of their wealth for a reason. Stock heavy investors are more inclined to looking to have that and also hope to see substantial wealth expansion. They'll cite that in the worst...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Aug 02, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7968

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters. There are certain potential long-term environments in which the best we might be able to do is to limit losses rather than maximize gains. In such "defens...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7968

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Morgan Houssel likes to say having a diversified portfolio means "always saying I'm sorry." As for LTT's....if you believe in David Bahnsen in this interview on Jonah Goldberg's Remnant Podcast, we're looking at long term deflation. If so LTT's might be handy, even with these pitiful rates. (at the...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7968

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun. [...] Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP. Over the past couple of years, I've be...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 146
Views: 7968

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

As an avid reader of Gyroscopic and Bogleheads threads from years, even a decade ago, this thread gave me a strange sense of deja vu. It is remarkable how quaint the turmoil of the past seems when viewed in retrospect. I can't help but feel that all this panic about LTT will one day seem amusing (.....
by blue_ruin17
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Safe deposit boxes: Revisited
Replies: 6
Views: 525

Safe deposit boxes: Revisited

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Safe_deposit_vault_after_EF5_tornado.jpg Safe deposit vault in Joplin, Missouri after the 2011 Joplin tornado, remaining intact despite the destruction of the bank that housed it. The "safe deposit box for gold storage" debate is as old as the Per...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Adding new funds - advanced
Replies: 7
Views: 1892

Re: Adding new funds - advanced

There was an epic thread about this a few years back...I seem to remember that most prefer the "add to the lagging asset" approach. Ultimately it probably comes down mostly to temperament and personal disposition though. I have a tough time putting money into an asset that is doing really well, for ...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?
Replies: 28
Views: 6355

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm
GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.
100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie Question
Replies: 10
Views: 1614

Re: Newbie Question

I have some physical silver. Its my SHTF money. Gold is too valuable to buy food and fuel with. My silver is strictly an insurance policy. If it never pays out, my kids inherit it. A practical reason to not use silver in the Permanent Portfolio is that the bid/ask spreads at a dealer are very steep ...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 2583

Re: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio

Thank you very much for the time you took to answeer me!!! I still need to figure out what I will do concerning the LT bonds... That is very hard for me to buy something that has negative yield. I come from deep value investing (net-net stocks) so I am kind of allergic to something that screams" ex...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 2583

Re: Questions concerning implementation of a GB/Weird portfolio

1. 30Y German bonds which is the safest bond in the Euro zone  is -0.12% so a guaranteed loss after 30 years not even taking into account the inflation for the 30Y.So, I have the impression that I have to change the portfolio and not take LT bonds but more cash.Normally those high quality bonds are...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: SS & the PP
Replies: 22
Views: 4089

Re: SS & the PP

LTT's are a safe haven asset that hedge against periods of deflation, economic contraction, and fear. During a deflationary crisis, LTTs spike, compensate for losses in stocks and/or gold, and provide the capacity to rebalance capital into those assets at discount prices. SS is not a flight-to-safet...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 16
Views: 3271

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

Never underestimate just how long a roll of central banking duct-tape is or how long it'll stick. Brilliant! For Canada, I'll bet gold. Heard the other day that Trudeau created more debt during this term than every other PMs before him COMBINED! Didn't verify this but I wouldn't be surprised if it ...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 16
Views: 3271

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

My vote: Stocks. For Canada, I'll bet gold. But of course, I will not be surprised if I'm wrong. Never underestimate just how long a roll of central banking duct-tape is or how long it'll stick. https://i.postimg.cc/wxtF8nmt/Screenshot-2021-01-03-20-07-53.png https://i.postimg.cc/CLkNdDJS/Screensho...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another great article by Tyler
Replies: 12
Views: 3258

Re: Another great article by Tyler

25% Vanguard total world VTWAX 25% Long bonds (how long?) in currency X 25% Gold 25% Savings account in currency X Anything wrong with this portfolio Some remarks from the perspective of the orthodox PP: 1. Domestic TSM is preferable to 100% international stocks. The PP is essentially designed to w...
by blue_ruin17
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent portfolio poll
Replies: 32
Views: 5880

Re: Permanent portfolio poll

Given what has happened this year with the economy, my old self would be SO pissed off at the world -- how can stocks keep on rising when the world sucks? My new self understands there is almost no correlation and is just chugging along. Ahh, there it is: the beauty of the philosophy, the mindset o...
by blue_ruin17
Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 16
Views: 3271

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

10.8% for the Canadian HBPP.
by blue_ruin17
Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another great article by Tyler
Replies: 12
Views: 3258

Re: Another great article by Tyler

I liked that approach of that article in methodically building up to the final "reveal" of the HBPP. One suggestion I would have for anyone who read that article and who is kicking the tires on the HBPP is to also study the worst case scenarios for the HBPP in countries besides the US. The US HBPP h...
by blue_ruin17
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stay cool...
Replies: 40
Views: 13146

Re: Stay cool...

I didn't "opportunistically" rebalance. I did it when I crossed a band. I was watching for when that happened using a google sheet I designed to give the indication, without my having to actually check my portfolio. I remember being a little disappointed though, that I didn't rebalance when stocks ...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in an overvalued economy
Replies: 7
Views: 2105

Re: Permanent Portfolio in an overvalued economy

A very subtle, sly approach to planting the 'seed' of the Permanent Portfolio concept in someone's mind. The best advice is often that which is only alluded to. No one knows the future, yet it is entirely natural to nonetheless harbour our own beliefs and inclinations regarding what we consider to b...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 15277

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

So a gold/cash portfolio would have been the best choice then if choosing more than one asset? Tech would like that portfolio! A gold/cash portfolio sure would have been tough to live with in the early 2000s when stocks were on a rampage year after year. And remember, during this time the Permanent...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 15277

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

With that said I would definitely agree that in a country as small and economically un-diversified as Iceland one should hold at LEAST half of one's stock allocation in non-Icelandic stocks (i.e. in a world index fund or something of that nature); doing so would've chipped a few performance points ...
by blue_ruin17
Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 15277

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

Marc DeMessel(?) covered what happened to the PP in Iceland during the GFC. Gold did not increase in value to cover the losses in the rest of the PP. https://www.thepermanentportfolio.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/PP_Iceland_2003_2009_Purchasing_Power.gif From the article " Permanent Portfolio Res...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?
Replies: 53
Views: 15277

Re: The Elephant in the room: How should we prepare for the collapse of the US?

Always maintain physical exposure to lead and brass. i've got this covered. The problem I see with fiddling and fussing with the Permanent Portfolio in reaction to current events is that it puts you on the path of forever having to do so, which nullifies who whole reason for utilizing the Permanent...