Search found 1460 matches

by boglerdude
Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:50 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Thinking about the unthinkable - Treasuries as a risky asset
Replies: 6
Views: 795

Re: Thinking about the unthinkable - Treasuries as a risky asset

They're probly fine. But I want to get paid to take on volatility, until I must have stability. Trying to sort out if holding PFIX and EDV together makes sense, since they cancel out. Thinking it does, PFIX has more upside and rising real rates will take down all other assets. They'll take down the ...
by boglerdude
Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:47 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US stock exposure without severe Mag Seven overconcentration
Replies: 11
Views: 3360

Re: US stock exposure without severe Mag Seven overconcentration

If you arent going to cap weight, you need to explain why Nvidia et al are mispriced by the investors looking at their numbers. Arnott's fund has slightly underperformed the market last 20 years. But theres always an issue with private managers front-running their funds when they know a rebalance is...
by boglerdude
Tue Apr 15, 2025 2:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 Risks Of The Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 1757

Re: 3 Risks Of The Permanent Portfolio

Morningstar charts dont show total return?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 3#p8316853

Tariffs. Companies have different margins. https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1911513456249127332
by boglerdude
Sat Apr 12, 2025 2:35 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Replies: 25
Views: 7594

Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing

^ yeah, no one wants those jobs. But millions of Americans need them. Including the unskilled immigrants we welcomed across the border.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfrKSTzY2mo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgCabQ_jZm8
by boglerdude
Fri Apr 11, 2025 12:45 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 12
Views: 5771

Re: Rebalancing

"Tax on Corporate Profit Margins" finally someone says it. Funny cuz reddit loves corporate tax but they're in shambles over tariffs. Trump's not going to betray his megacorp donors....if markets drop more than 20% we'll get the printer. Well we better cuz Ive been bagholding EDV since Obama
by boglerdude
Tue Apr 01, 2025 11:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does variance matter to long term investors?
Replies: 10
Views: 1686

Re: Does variance matter to long term investors?

Varies by individual. People who check their numbers weekly or more maybe should be more defensive/risk parity. I dunno if people do that out of fear or excitement though. Similarly I'm trying to figure out why some people love gambling. Drugs I understand. Are they thinking that if they can hit it ...
by boglerdude
Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:45 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Tariffs a 'Back Breaker' for Global Auto Industry: Dan Ives
Replies: 5
Views: 2269

Re: Tariffs a 'Back Breaker' for Global Auto Industry: Dan Ives

Recession started April 2022 when they stopped printing. Lots are sitting empty in socal as developers wait for subsidized loans
by boglerdude
Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Balancing Gains and Losses Every Year to Eliminate Capital Gains Tax in the Long Run
Replies: 26
Views: 7034

Re: Balancing Gains and Losses Every Year to Eliminate Capital Gains Tax in the Long Run

dualstow wrote: Fri Feb 28, 2025 7:49 am And with that, the ancient yet youthful creature frugal went back into the hollow
of the magic tree where he dwells, not to be seen again until the next solstice,
or a disturbance in the underpinnings of the Universe…
Google says this is Original Content
by boglerdude
Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Return Stacking Strategy Applied to HB-PP
Replies: 6
Views: 2490

Re: Return Stacking Strategy Applied to HB-PP

mathjak is doing that. https://www.early-retirement.org/thread ... os.120880/

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=442932

The new all-weather ETF is doing that

Vanguard wont allow purchase of levered ETFs. IIRC you can get away with ALLW and PSLDX
by boglerdude
Wed Mar 26, 2025 10:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Revaluation
Replies: 2
Views: 2041

Re: Gold Revaluation

We've seen the lengths they will go to, so that "they can just print money?" is not the narrative.
by boglerdude
Tue Mar 25, 2025 7:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ex-US stocks rising
Replies: 34
Views: 12223

Re: ex-US stocks rising

Humans consistently underestimate corruption, because they look in the mirror and see an angel who cant be bought They also cant handle the possibility that the covid narrative isnt exactly what they were told. Shatters too much faith in institutions. As Scott Adams said, people are watching differe...
by boglerdude
Tue Mar 25, 2025 2:21 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Yes America, Trump and Trumpism are here to stay
Replies: 38
Views: 8899

Re: Yes America, Trump and Trumpism are here to stay

Truth? Politics is information warfare. Vinny hasnt spent a lot of time arguing with women. An American asked a Soviet Professor “What are you doing in the United States?” The professor replied, “I'm here to study American Propaganda.” The American asked, “What propaganda?” The Soviet said “Exactly ...
by boglerdude
Mon Mar 17, 2025 7:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Meme Thread
Replies: 345
Views: 353336

Re: The Meme Thread

r/Canada defines itself as non-American. socialized medicine, restricted rights to self-defense. Every day during the two weeks years of curfews they bragged about not having constitutional freedoms of religion or assembly. "Community first" collectivist/communist/socialist however you wan...
by boglerdude
Fri Mar 14, 2025 12:43 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing
Replies: 25
Views: 7594

Re: Schwab podcasts discussing Federal effects on investing

Businesses do a good job charging consumers as much as they can pay. If Chinese EVs have a profit margin of 20% and US auto 10%, a 10% tariff on China might be a way to generate revenue. If China wants to give you EVs at nearly cost. . .take them. Exceptions for national security and food. Global Me...
by boglerdude
Thu Mar 13, 2025 11:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Great Idea by Judy Shelton - Gold Bond
Replies: 9
Views: 3134

Re: Great Idea by Judy Shelton - Gold Bond

2008 Fed printed billions and bought toxic MBS. Now the fed is paying banks 4.4% on that cash and the "pandemic" cash. Nice work if you can get it. What happens if they stop paying the banks? Bogleheads deleted my thread as too political and reddit deleted the replies https://old.reddit.co...
by boglerdude
Wed Mar 12, 2025 12:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ex-US stocks rising
Replies: 34
Views: 12223

Re: ex-US stocks rising

> Treated differently?

For one thing, my income is too low to use the non-refundable foreign tax credit. And freetaxusa cant process it.

And Fed's going to bailout US companies first. Chart is world vs US
by boglerdude
Mon Mar 10, 2025 8:56 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Trump says he has directed US Treasury to stop minting new pennies, citing rising cost
Replies: 42
Views: 12877

Re: Trump says he has directed US Treasury to stop minting new pennies, citing rising cost

Given how tribalism works I suppose ~700 million Chinese think communism is good economic policy

And I'm surprised Vinny can consider "MAGA" Elon a genius
by boglerdude
Mon Mar 10, 2025 2:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bridgewater All Weather ETF
Replies: 42
Views: 9765

Re: Bridgewater All Weather ETF

Not much discussion https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=450970 https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/ray-dalio-all-weather/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1j5gawp/ray_dalios_all_weather_etf/ ^ "1.7x 25/60/15 allocation" I think thats 25% stock, 60 long bond...
by boglerdude
Thu Mar 06, 2025 8:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Hoisington
Replies: 3
Views: 6829

Re: Hoisington

iduno abt inflation weakening, but the Fed has to buy those bonds when they print.

This money has to come from somewhere https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA
by boglerdude
Thu Mar 06, 2025 12:08 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Grilling Fauci
Replies: 51
Views: 31447

Re: Grilling Fauci

by boglerdude
Wed Feb 26, 2025 12:36 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Grilling Fauci
Replies: 51
Views: 31447

Re: Grilling Fauci

Anthrax is the only bioweapon because the spores can dry out. Even then its a poor and indiscriminate weapon. If conservatives swallow the bioweapon narrative then Trump can claim bird flu is another leak, lockdown again and finish off small business and the middle class. edit1 for substance https:/...
by boglerdude
Sat Feb 22, 2025 10:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Two Financial Book Deals!
Replies: 2
Views: 1989

Re: Two Financial Book Deals!

Mostly the usual investment-porn but points out that tariffs can cut the profits of the global oligarchs and they dont like that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zolT2xHEZk