Search found 25 matches
- Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:25 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
- Replies: 9
- Views: 2527
Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Alternatively what I have been thinking of but never did is Instead of a 50/50 Bogle/PP to do leveraged PP instead? If there is one portfolio on which leverage should not be too risky, it should be the PP? And a moderate leverage could bring the average long term return to the level (equity) investo...
- Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:17 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
- Replies: 56
- Views: 11243
Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP
I believe US PP has indeed performed worse this year; I also did some rebalancing during the year buying German Gov Bond when price had dropped a lot and have cash lower than 25% (around 16%). So you invest something like 16/28/28/28? Do you already withdraw from your portfolio? If so, how is your ...
- Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:48 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
- Replies: 56
- Views: 11243
Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Hello, I have increased my assets through company sales and real estate sales this year. After some consideration, I have now built a European Permanent Portfolio last month. I live in Germany. The portfolio consists of: - Developed Europe Stock ETF - German Gov Bond (2050) - German Gov Bond (2023)...
- Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:59 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
- Replies: 56
- Views: 11243
Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Hello, I have increased my assets through company sales and real estate sales this year. After some consideration, I have now built a European Permanent Portfolio last month. I live in Germany. The portfolio consists of: - Developed Europe Stock ETF - German Gov Bond (2050) - German Gov Bond (2023)...
- Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:13 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
- Replies: 21
- Views: 14668
Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
I am one of the few EU PP investors as well. I started in 2016 when the Long Term German Bond (2046) was already trading below 1% yield. It has been fascinating to see how a totally unpredicted event such as Corona proved PP works. Equity markets crashed and all equity gains since 2016 have been wip...
- Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:58 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12023
Re: EU PP 2016-2019
EU PP has further rallied since my first message. The 30y Bund is now at an all-time low and gold performing very well. Quite pleased with my PP.
- Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:58 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12023
Re: EU PP 2016-2019
I see your point. The PP seems overly pessimistic in asking you to keep 25% in cash for a depression scenario. I find it hard as well to stick to it and kept the cash balance at 10-15% knowing that I could free up more cash if really necessary. So in my view you do need to keep a sufficient cash bal...
- Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12023
Re: EU PP 2016-2019
Thank you for providing the link; quite a fascinating article; it looks like there is still upside potential even if the EU long bond is already at a yield that is very low; I don't really understand why it is this way; i thought price would only change by the interest rate change x duration (eg a d...
- Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:15 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12023
Re: EU PP 2016-2019
It's quite spectacular how the price of the 2046 Bund increased recently:
https://www.boersentreff.de/bundesrep_d ... nleihe.htm
(sorry can't seem to copy the graph in the post)
It's almost tempting to sell the position before it comes down again..
https://www.boersentreff.de/bundesrep_d ... nleihe.htm
(sorry can't seem to copy the graph in the post)
It's almost tempting to sell the position before it comes down again..
- Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:01 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12023
Re: EU PP 2016-2019
I have most cash deposited with a bank that offered 1% for 1 y as a promotion. And I must admit keeping the cash allocation a bit below 25%. The big question is if rates can still go lower in Europe; maybe they can remain low for very long as in Japan. I think for the rest of the year it will be gol...
- Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:48 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
- Replies: 16
- Views: 12023
EU PP 2016-2019
Dear members, i started with a lot of anxiety a European PP back in February 2016. Even after studying, reflecting and agreeing with the theory, actually buying the 30Y Bund at a yield of 0.86% looked crazy and went against the financial consensus. Results were quite modest in the first years with t...
- Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:30 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Why do bonds with low yields provide less insurance?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 9152
Re: Why do bonds with low yields provide less insurance?
I wonder if one could mitigate this problem by buying one of those bonds ETFs like IBGL. These carry French, German, and Dutch bonds, but also a bit of Italian and Spanish stuff (supposedly for yield). You'd then get more upside, but the bonds part of your portfolio becomes slightly more risky. Hel...
- Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:04 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Why should PP continue going up?
- Replies: 89
- Views: 38097
Re: Why should PP continue going up?
I am coming a bit late to this very interesting discussion. Sam, you are raising a number of very valid questions. I set up an EU PP only 4 months ago and the bond issue was a big question for me. The 30y Bund was trading at 0.87% at the time ... In Europe we are basically already facing your theore...
- Sat May 07, 2016 9:06 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 16839
Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Hi Barrett, Glad to see the forum is up and running again! Or was it only me had a "database problem"? It has actually not been that bad in terms of volatility, I bought the 2046 Bund (DE0001102341) at a price around 145% (a yield of 0.84%) and the lowest it got was 139% a week ago or a loss of -3....
- Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:03 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 16839
Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
I read that the EU PP actually yielded +2.73% last year with inflation at 0% with hardly any change in the value of the 30 bund whereas the US PP was negative. It shows that the two do not need to move in parallel as the economies are not in parallel either.
- Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:18 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 16839
Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
OK. My conclusion for the moment is that the German bund yield can still go lower and that I should stick to the PP theory. But psychologically it will be tough, it can easily lose 20% in value with only a modest interest rate increase. Not sure the other assets will go up 20% when that happens.
- Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:13 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 16839
Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
The Swiss 10y bond yields -0.34% at the moment... but does that mean one expects the Swiss economy to be depressed for years to come? It's a very strong economy only suffering from a currency that is overvalued.
- Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:48 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 16839
Re: The challenge of an EU Permanent PP at current bond yields
Thanks a lot for the replies guys. Barrett, I specifically opened an account at a German broker in order to be able to buy the bond directly. It is a crazy situation here with a lot of the bonds already at negative yields. And I am wondering to which extent it is artificial as the ECB is buying bil...
- Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:59 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
- Replies: 36
- Views: 16839
The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Hello everyone, After some frantic reading during February, I took the plunge last month and started a EU PP. I can't complain as it is 2% up already so far. But my worry is: am I taking unreasonable interest rate risk? The correct implementation of the bond leg of the European PP involves investi...
- Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:58 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
- Replies: 101
- Views: 47960
Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Hi, I am in the same position than you having to decide about this issue and I share your frustration. But after reading the book, I understand better now that you need the 30y bond to protect you against the scenario of deflation "irrespective of the current rate". And one could argue that even at...
- Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:04 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
- Replies: 26
- Views: 15126
Re: Planning to set up a portfolio
Thank you Dualstow. I can see now that I actually need the higher volatility of the broader index compared to the lower volatility of dividend stocks to keep the overall volatility of the PP low.
- Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:10 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
- Replies: 26
- Views: 15126
Re: Planning to set up a portfolio
To try and illustrate my fear of the eurobond section of a PP portfolio at current yield, this is the graph of long-term German bond yield since 1815. http://qz.com/241890/the-complete-history-of-german-bond-yields-from-napoleon-to-angela-merkel/ (sorry, i couldn't find how to insert a picture so I ...
- Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:52 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
- Replies: 26
- Views: 15126
Re: Planning to set up a portfolio
haha, I would love to make you a special PPP offer (permanent portfolio paradise) if only that having US clients is a big no no for us (and for virtually all banks here) but that's an entirely different story. But if you are saying that PP only works in USD, I have a problem. Let me check on what ...
- Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:01 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
- Replies: 26
- Views: 15126
Re: Planning to set up a portfolio
Thanks a lot barrett for that information. I will have a look at these charts and websites. What attracts me to the PP is the low volatility for a reasonable return over time but looks like it does fluctuate more in the short term than I thought. The more reason to gradually build the portfolio ov...
- Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:04 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
- Replies: 26
- Views: 15126
Planning to set up a portfolio
Hello, This is my first post. I discovered the permanent portfolio idea only 10 days ago and have been frantically reading up in the evenings on this exciting plan. I found this forum only yesterday night. About myself, I am in fact director of a Swiss online broker and I have thus seen quite a few...