Search found 25 matches

by belgo
Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne
Replies: 9
Views: 2527

Re: Solution for those on the fence between bogle or browne

Alternatively what I have been thinking of but never did is Instead of a 50/50 Bogle/PP to do leveraged PP instead? If there is one portfolio on which leverage should not be too risky, it should be the PP? And a moderate leverage could bring the average long term return to the level (equity) investo...
by belgo
Fri Dec 02, 2022 4:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 11243

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

I believe US PP has indeed performed worse this year; I also did some rebalancing during the year buying German Gov Bond when price had dropped a lot and have cash lower than 25% (around 16%). So you invest something like 16/28/28/28? Do you already withdraw from your portfolio? If so, how is your ...
by belgo
Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 11243

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

Hello, I have increased my assets through company sales and real estate sales this year. After some consideration, I have now built a European Permanent Portfolio last month. I live in Germany. The portfolio consists of: - Developed Europe Stock ETF - German Gov Bond (2050) - German Gov Bond (2023)...
by belgo
Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a newbie to trust the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 11243

Re: Help a newbie to trust the PP

Hello, I have increased my assets through company sales and real estate sales this year. After some consideration, I have now built a European Permanent Portfolio last month. I live in Germany. The portfolio consists of: - Developed Europe Stock ETF - German Gov Bond (2050) - German Gov Bond (2023)...
by belgo
Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break
Replies: 21
Views: 14668

Re: The Permanent Portfolio May Be About To Break

I am one of the few EU PP investors as well. I started in 2016 when the Long Term German Bond (2046) was already trading below 1% yield. It has been fascinating to see how a totally unpredicted event such as Corona proved PP works. Equity markets crashed and all equity gains since 2016 have been wip...
by belgo
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12023

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

EU PP has further rallied since my first message. The 30y Bund is now at an all-time low and gold performing very well. Quite pleased with my PP.
by belgo
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12023

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

I see your point. The PP seems overly pessimistic in asking you to keep 25% in cash for a depression scenario. I find it hard as well to stick to it and kept the cash balance at 10-15% knowing that I could free up more cash if really necessary. So in my view you do need to keep a sufficient cash bal...
by belgo
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12023

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

Thank you for providing the link; quite a fascinating article; it looks like there is still upside potential even if the EU long bond is already at a yield that is very low; I don't really understand why it is this way; i thought price would only change by the interest rate change x duration (eg a d...
by belgo
Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12023

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

It's quite spectacular how the price of the 2046 Bund increased recently:

https://www.boersentreff.de/bundesrep_d ... nleihe.htm
(sorry can't seem to copy the graph in the post)

It's almost tempting to sell the position before it comes down again..
by belgo
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12023

Re: EU PP 2016-2019

I have most cash deposited with a bank that offered 1% for 1 y as a promotion. And I must admit keeping the cash allocation a bit below 25%. The big question is if rates can still go lower in Europe; maybe they can remain low for very long as in Japan. I think for the rest of the year it will be gol...
by belgo
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU PP 2016-2019
Replies: 16
Views: 12023

EU PP 2016-2019

Dear members, i started with a lot of anxiety a European PP back in February 2016. Even after studying, reflecting and agreeing with the theory, actually buying the 30Y Bund at a yield of 0.86% looked crazy and went against the financial consensus. Results were quite modest in the first years with t...
by belgo
Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:30 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why do bonds with low yields provide less insurance?
Replies: 11
Views: 9152

Re: Why do bonds with low yields provide less insurance?

I wonder if one could mitigate this problem by buying one of those bonds ETFs like IBGL. These carry French, German, and Dutch bonds, but also a bit of Italian and Spanish stuff (supposedly for yield). You'd then get more upside, but the bonds part of your portfolio becomes slightly more risky. Hel...
by belgo
Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why should PP continue going up?
Replies: 89
Views: 38097

Re: Why should PP continue going up?

I am coming a bit late to this very interesting discussion. Sam, you are raising a number of very valid questions. I set up an EU PP only 4 months ago and the bond issue was a big question for me. The 30y Bund was trading at 0.87% at the time ... In Europe we are basically already facing your theore...
by belgo
Sat May 07, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Replies: 36
Views: 16839

Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields

Hi Barrett, Glad to see the forum is up and running again! Or was it only me had a "database problem"?  It has actually not been that bad in terms of volatility, I bought the 2046 Bund (DE0001102341) at a price around 145% (a yield of 0.84%) and the lowest it got was 139% a week ago or a loss of -3....
by belgo
Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Replies: 36
Views: 16839

Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields

I read that the EU PP actually yielded +2.73% last year with inflation at 0% with hardly any change in the value of the 30 bund whereas the US PP was negative.  It shows that the two do not need to move in parallel as the economies are not in parallel either.
by belgo
Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Replies: 36
Views: 16839

Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields

OK. My conclusion for the moment is that the German bund yield can still go lower and that I should stick to the PP theory. But psychologically it will be tough, it can easily lose 20% in value with only a modest interest rate increase. Not sure the other assets will go up 20% when that happens.
by belgo
Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Replies: 36
Views: 16839

Re: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields

The Swiss 10y bond yields -0.34% at the moment... but does that mean one expects the Swiss economy to be depressed for years to come? It's a very strong economy only suffering from a currency that is overvalued.
by belgo
Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Replies: 36
Views: 16839

Re: The challenge of an EU Permanent PP at current bond yields

Thanks a lot for the replies guys. Barrett, I specifically opened an account at a German broker in order to be able to buy the bond directly.  It is a crazy situation here with a lot of the bonds already at negative yields. And I am wondering to which extent it is artificial as the ECB is buying bil...
by belgo
Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields
Replies: 36
Views: 16839

The challenge of an EU PP at current bond yields

Hello everyone, After some frantic reading during February, I took the plunge last month and started a EU PP.  I can't complain as it is 2% up already so far. But my worry is: am I taking unreasonable interest rate risk?  The correct implementation of the bond leg of the European PP involves investi...
by belgo
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:58 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47960

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

Hi, I am in the same position than you having to decide about this issue and I share your frustration. But after reading the book, I understand better now that you need the 30y bond to protect you against the scenario of deflation "irrespective of the current rate".  And one could argue that even at...
by belgo
Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 15126

Re: Planning to set up a portfolio

Thank you Dualstow.  I can see now that I actually need the higher volatility of the broader index compared to the lower volatility of dividend stocks to keep the overall volatility of the PP low.
by belgo
Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 15126

Re: Planning to set up a portfolio

To try and illustrate my fear of the eurobond section of a PP portfolio at current yield, this is the graph of long-term German bond yield since 1815. http://qz.com/241890/the-complete-history-of-german-bond-yields-from-napoleon-to-angela-merkel/ (sorry, i couldn't find how to insert a picture so I ...
by belgo
Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 15126

Re: Planning to set up a portfolio

haha, I would love to make you a special PPP offer (permanent portfolio paradise) if only that having US clients is a big no no for us (and for virtually all banks here) but that's an entirely different story.  But if you are saying that PP only works in USD, I have a problem.  Let me check on what ...
by belgo
Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 15126

Re: Planning to set up a portfolio

Thanks a lot barrett for that information.  I will have a look at these charts and websites.  What attracts me to the PP is the low volatility for a reasonable return over time but looks like it does fluctuate more in the short term than I thought. The more reason to gradually build the portfolio ov...
by belgo
Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Planning to set up a portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 15126

Planning to set up a portfolio

Hello, This is my first post. I discovered the permanent portfolio idea only 10 days ago and have been frantically reading up in the evenings on this exciting plan.  I found this forum only yesterday night. About myself, I am in fact director of a Swiss online broker and I have thus seen quite a few...