Search found 50 matches

by var
Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin question (How did FBI recover some pipeline ransom)
Replies: 6
Views: 307

Re: Bitcoin question (How did FBI recover some pipeline ransom)

Actually the DOJ got the private key to the wallet, during a raid on some server. True. the hackers left the key on the cloud server that they used to attack. Sloppy. Just because it is written on the blockchain. You still need keys to access the funds. I used to be a gold bug. However, upon furthe...
by var
Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3252

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Bitcoins being stored in a public encrypted ledger is nice/simple/low-cost for storage, however a 32 character key being the proof of ownership is a major concern from my perspective, especially as any thief doesn't need local access, can steal from a distance from anywhere in the world. Feels some...
by var
Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Some concerns about crypto (In General)
Replies: 19
Views: 680

Re: Some concerns about crypto (In General)

Now that Paypal et al are reporting everything to the feds, how do you send crypto to people directly quick guide. Fiat on ramp coinbase. take your dollars exchange to BTC. setup exodus wallet on iphone. send you BTC to exodus wallet address make sure its BTC. do 1 test send for like 50 dollars... ...
by var
Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Some concerns about crypto (In General)
Replies: 19
Views: 680

Re: Some concerns about crypto (In General)

Thanks for the response. Very helpful. I don’t view the SEC settlement (I thought it was with the NY attorney general) as any kind of a useful signal. I’m hearing of strange things like Alameda Research and Cumberland global being the market makers for most bitcoin transactions, tether being a pote...
by var
Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 1
Views: 133

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

Buying the dip 5k in ETH and BTC.


buy the dip 1.10.22
CRYPTO USD crypto price added qty previous qty new total qty
BTC 5000 41860 0.1194457716 0.2063344682 0.3257802398
ETH 5000 3075 1.62601626 2.597402597 4.223418858
by var
Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin question (How did FBI recover some pipeline ransom)
Replies: 6
Views: 307

Re: Bitcoin question (How did FBI recover some pipeline ransom)

Remember when the Colonial Pipeline or some other important company paid a ransom in Bitcoin, and soon it was announced that the FBI or some other agency got a lot of it back? How did they do that? Isn’t Bitcoin impenetrable? This is mis-information all BTC transactions are visible to anyone on the...
by var
Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Some concerns about crypto (In General)
Replies: 19
Views: 680

Re: Some concerns about crypto (In General)

I was all set to buy some Bitcoin and maybe Solana, Ada, dot. But then I read an article in Bloomberg about a tether and the associated freak show - no audits, 48 billion printed of potential funny money printed in a year, only a few entities can actually redeem tether for dollars with tether direc...
by var
Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 1
Views: 133

Var - Crypto Variable Port

Hi Folks, I decided to track a simple crypto port. Let's see how it does. Just to keep it simple I am using BTC and ETH. I have other altcoins but I have excluded them to keep things simple. starting with 20k on 12.28.21 *formating is a little off. CRYPTO USD crypto price qty BTC 10000 48465 0.20633...
by var
Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3252

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:55 am
var wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:28 pm
However, if you're going to buy something I suggest starting with BTC first like 5% allocation.
And now the question is when to rebalance out of crypto. What would be the rebalancing bands?
Good Question!

Rough guess 5%-10% higher than normal PP.
by var
Sat Dec 25, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?
Replies: 11
Views: 957

Re: PP vs Yield Farming Stablecoin Cryptos?

Would it be crazy to put a significant % of your nest egg in yield farming Stablecoin crytpos (like USDC, USDT, TUSD, Dai, etc) instead of the PP? There are quite a few of these "farms" yielding around 20% or more a year on cryptos that theoretically stay put at $1/coin. Yes depends because securit...
by var
Sat Dec 25, 2021 11:48 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3252

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

I spent 100+ hours trying to recover my BTC that was forever lost after losing my private key. All for naught. actually there only finite amount BTC ever to be mined. 20% will be lost... people forget the keys or throwing away the old computer,etc. I did the same with ETH took me 50+ hours to recov...
by var
Fri Dec 24, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?
Replies: 38
Views: 3252

Re: Did Bitcoin Kill Gold’s Monetary Utility?

Some musings from Cullen Roche about how gold has failed to respond to the $6T the US gov pushed into the US economy, unlike bitcoin (maybe). PP allocation gets mentioned heavily. https://www.pragcap.com/did-bitcoin-kill-golds-monetary-utility/ Personally I still don't get cryptos, but I guess Marc...
by var
Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?
Replies: 6
Views: 465

Re: PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?

This article covers the issue for you. ;) https://wiki.earlyretirementextreme.com/wiki/Permanent_Portfolio#401(k)_lemonade thanks >> 401(k) lemonade The PP can be difficult to implement in 401(k) plans. Stock index funds and money market funds are frequently available, but suitable bond funds are r...
by var
Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?
Replies: 6
Views: 465

PP in Company IRA m - no long term bond?

Hi guys,

My company IRA has no long term bond equivelant.....

most is 10 year equivalent? will that be sufficient?

what allocation do u suggest?

i know it wont be perfect.

i am thinking maybe 50 pct spy..25 pct 10 year 25 pct money market?

thoughts?
by var
Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Maybe charting was off that day.

No I don’t own it. It’s trading volume way to low.

I been watching it does have a lot of tracking errors.
by var
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Ubt imploded yesterday. -47 pct
C6EAFCB5-368A-459D-8E52-C70051354C4E.png
C6EAFCB5-368A-459D-8E52-C70051354C4E.png (551.96 KiB) Viewed 5666 times

Any news why?

Proshares usually good with other products.

One needs to be careful
by var
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Good heads up on ULGD... i sold it when it was in the OTC. I feel leveraged ETF to be safer then ETN. UGL might not be a perfect solution. but a little NUGT with it might add to the leverage. Otherwise, my Variable PP is doing pretty well. On the bond side. the 3X fund and 2X seem to have considerab...
by var
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1268
Views: 139237

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

That would be typical.....but so far futures down at least now and oil up ....I don’t hold these very long at all ......especially sdow that was down something like 22% today ..... Right now my one day a week of work is on hold so if I make a days pay I am happy what kind of gain are you holding fo...
by var
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I also noticed an tracking error with TLT and UBT today.

3.16.20
TLT +6.48%
UBT 9.94%
TMF +16.76
by var
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Great stuff.. I sort of legged in to Levaraged PP. I bought some UGLD and TMF. I didn't buy any 3X SPY because i thought the market was too high and weighted for a pullback. So far so good. I have been buy 3x SPY ETF as the market keeps dropping. What are people using as rebalance bands for 3x PP? s...
by var
Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 252
Views: 151758

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hi all, My 2019 leveraged PP results are in. I implemented this 5 years ago and have gotten a 14.93% CAGR. I rebalance yearly. Last year was spectacular, a whopping 67.71%! Here's a 5 year screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x2019.jpg Take care. -Ozzy ozzy, just to clarify you keep the same all...
by var
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals
Replies: 18
Views: 8466

Re: The "trend following" Permanent Portfolio signals

are u using real money to do this?
by var
Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: XIV SVXY LEAP
Replies: 9
Views: 5032

Re: XIV SVXY LEAP

hey guys so far this is my experience but a  LEAP call i think in jan when market was in turmoil... sold got out even weeks ago. bought svxy shares instead (this thing moves like an option so u might as have shares to not worry about time decay) up 11% so far.... i prob gonna sell it soon when its u...
by var
Tue Feb 23, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown
Replies: 9
Views: 4263

Re: Shorting the market... my mind has been blown

If you use SH S&P500 SHORT ETF, in a Dual Momentum pairing with the S&P500 SPY LONG ETF, and just swap back and forth between the two based on the simple DM trading rules, you have better CAGR, Sharpe, and MaxDD than buy-and-hold SHY alone! That's just amazing to me, and completely surprising. Some...
by var
Tue Feb 23, 2016 6:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: LEAPS PP
Replies: 162
Views: 57796

Re: LEAPS PP

prob the best way to do it set up ameritrade account...

then enable paper trading with think or swim... (quotes are delayed, unless you have enough cash in ur trading account)

thinkorswim got the best interface for options.