Search found 295 matches

by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

At some point Bitcoin will be fully monetized and its value will plateau. Along with it volatility. I think we are a ways away from that. It is hard to say how much money needs to come in to Bitcoin move the price a certain amount. Especially with Bitcoin's inability to create more coins in response...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

I get the parallels you try to draw between the two but I think they are somewhat tenuous when comparing a store of value with 6000 years of history and another highly volatile and speculative asset that few understand with a little more than a decade of history. The hype on internet is powerful, b...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

A lot of the speculative easy money has also already piled in. It takes a certain type of individual to be attracted to this roller coaster. At some point the trajectory starts to grind to a much slower pace....the question is at that point how many of these individuals will jump ship for the next ...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

The biggest danger to bitcoin is I don't really care. In the same way I didn't care about beanie babies, or pokemon cards, or whatever the latest greatest thing is. That's how the sizzle becomes a fizzle. It doesn't take anything dramatic, just simply a bunch of disinterested individuals. Maybe I'l...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Remember when Bitcoin had that huge run-up to $20k and crashed back down to $4k? Then some professors at University of Texas and Ohio State did a bunch of research and found the entire run-up was caused by just 1 large investor? Ive been pretty deep in the space for a while and am not familiar with...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Well, if we want to review it as a venture capital investment, we will want to know what its distinct competitive advantage is. One of the most important questions a venture capitalist will ask is "Can the technology easily be replicated by a competitor?" This is where everything really turns into ...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Thank you for your perspective. I keep asking myself “what if”? What if Bitcoin is legitimate even with all the challenges outlined to owning and transacting. What if... I have .60% of investable assets in Bitcoin to answer all the what ifs... People seem to think that somehow bitcoin can operate t...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

People seem to think that somehow bitcoin can operate the same way as internet piracy. But internet piracy has only a few entities that want it stopped (not like the masses that benefit from wealth redistribution). Internet piracy provides the END PRODUCT in an anonymous form (the movie, software, ...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Sorry everyone, but this is probably going to sound pretty harsh... I strongly believe that, for many people here, the PP is akin to Alcoholics Anonymous. People walk in the door and are given a set of “rules” to keep them from being a danger to themselves. HB knew that once you are a junkie, you w...
by bitcoininthevp
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

2. A new coin is created that makes better use of the processing power. Something that also gives it a higher purpose that would cause people to always prefer it even if growth iniatally seemed lower. There are many such coins. And that is the basis of the argument that I posted in video. Bitcoin w...
by bitcoininthevp
Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

rewarding individuals (and now large institutional money) for speculation instead of productive labor output into our economy Bitcoin is a savings technology. It’s meant to be money and money is a place for savings. In our recent modern times we forget that since our currency is constantly devalued...
by bitcoininthevp
Fri Mar 12, 2021 2:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

You can buy a fraction of a Bitcoin so there’s not a valid comparison to other $60k assets that are not divisible. Additionally it’s price going up actually adds to its utility. Money is the most salable good so adding to the price adds to bitcoins total liquidity. This enables more (bigger) players...
by bitcoininthevp
Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:34 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

And has been around many years. Since 2017 apparently so our definition of many years is different. What people need to know is that if you purchase a futures contract, your counterparty is the exchange. Their insurance is potentially inadequate which is why I linked that page. It personally wouldn...
by bitcoininthevp
Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:54 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

https://www.ledgerx.com/custody-and-insurance For small amounts of play money, there are many other ways to YOLO it around. For anyone looking for arbitrage, ledgerx and the CME group are not comparable in my opinion. We should be careful when even suggesting people look into these other smaller cr...
by bitcoininthevp
Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:44 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

Ledgerx (https://www.ledgerx.com/) could be a good option if you are in the US. Small contract sizes, regulated, and has futures.
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:41 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

If 5 BTC is the minimum and that too big and you can’t portfolio margin or find a broker or another exchange that will help then I guess it won’t work for you. Portfolio Margin only works if you can hold the long and the short in the same portfolio. I haven't seen a way to do that in the USA. And, ...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:40 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

The trade remains a risk free arbitrage. Just because your current jurisdiction and exchanges rules make it hard for you doesn’t change the fundamentals here. There are other venues with other requirements or better flexibility.

Maybe this is part the reason the trade remains.
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

If 5 BTC is the minimum and that too big and you can’t portfolio margin or find a broker or another exchange that will help then I guess it won’t work for you.
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:11 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

Proper Bitcoin futures require 100% margin to short at least at IBKR. I was curious as well when b said you can size this to what you want. Then maybe’s he is referring to futures on a crypto exchange. Just size the trade as a few % of your account. Bitcoin would have to 50x to blow your margins. A...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:08 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

I’ve noted “Margin considerations on the CME futures position” as a consideration in the original post. This really is the only concern and can be solved by sizing the trade smaller. This is not a new trade. Cash and carry has been around forever and traditional finance talks about it as basically r...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 197
Views: 5990

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

There is no mechanism for expanding money supply so it is heavily deflationary..not to mention additional deflation caused by lost tokens which will continue to increase. This poses a huge range of problems if your goal is to extract maximum productivity out of economy. This is something that has b...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:49 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

I spent a few hours looking at this this afternoon and couldn't figure out a way to hold BTC in the same brokerage account as the future. Barring that, the separate accounts have to assume you have huge exposure. One account has you long, and the other short. In the OP's example, I would go long on...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:45 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

Wait, but why isnt everyone doing this? The same reason you are reading this post with extreme skepticism is the same reason this arbitrage opportunity continues to persist. So maybe use some small portion of that large cash position in your PP to earn sick margins? b, Is this a loophole that is go...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

In the buying bitcoin and selling the future scenario, I wasn't clear, are one of you actually doing this currently or this is all on paper? No comment personally, but does the proposed trade at least make sense to you? https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cashandcarrytransaction.asp Yes, profiting...
by bitcoininthevp
Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango
Replies: 59
Views: 1281

Re: Large returns on cash taking advantage of bitcoin's contango

I understand the concept of a covered call, but I don't know the mechanics of options trading. That's my "why isn't everyone doing this." There is no option involved in this trade. Simple cash and carry strategy. I'm open to being schooled, but AFAIK what you described is a basic covered call optio...