Search found 2711 matches

by Tortoise
Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:25 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II
Replies: 820
Views: 273029

Re: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II

So while on the one hand, being pro-business and anti-government intervention is a very conservative trait, what happens when private business like Monsanto and Syngenta are adultering the food supply in ways that are destructive to consumers? The Ayn Rand libertarian answer would be for consumers ...
by Tortoise
Sun Jan 29, 2023 11:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Isn't there an Avatar Thread?
Replies: 199
Views: 39427

Re: Isn't there an Avatar Thread?

dualstow wrote:
Sun Jan 29, 2023 8:47 pm
Elon’s tweet reminded me of Tortoise twice over.

B0060801-7894-43AA-8AD7-20E4FA130773.jpeg
Ohm gonna pretend Elon didn’t make such a corny joke about electricity.
by Tortoise
Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5242
Views: 825319

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

The California Department of Public Health still requires masks in "healthcare settings, long-term care settings, and adult and senior care facilities". And therefore my dutifully compliant county department of public health requires them also. My dentist and all of his staff and patients comply wit...
by Tortoise
Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 42
Views: 2141

Re: 2022 Returns

2022 was the only year since 1989 that had negative returns for both equities and bonds. Equity and Bond Scatter Plot.png Interesting chart, thanks Mark! I found a similar one on this page that goes back even farther, to 1929. The only years since 1929 in which stocks and bonds both had a negative ...
by Tortoise
Mon Jan 23, 2023 6:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 1407

Re: Silver

Whoa. That one I have to try. Hard to believe. ~80% ! I tried downloading the research paper linked on the website "heads.pdf" but got a dead link and couldn't fiind it on the web. If anyone has the paper... They may have been referring to this paper by Diaconis. This seems to be the relevant passa...
by Tortoise
Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:11 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 1407

Re: Silver

Next time you flip a coin for something, instead of the more usual heads or tails call, call "obverse or reverse" ... and then claim you've won as most wont know the difference. Or, instead of flipping the coin, spin it on its edge. A new penny that's spun on its edge will land with tails facing up...
by Tortoise
Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChatGPT and what it means for our future
Replies: 84
Views: 1680

Re: ChatGPT and what it means for our future

One of the best Black Mirror episodes ("Be Right Back", S2E1) explored this concept in the context of AI imitating a dead loved one by training on their digital footprint. It was rather creepy. Hard to believe that episode aired 10 years ago...
by Tortoise
Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:55 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 948
Views: 61354

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The Soviets launched significant attacks on Christmas (Dec 25th one) during WW2 against the Germans/Romanians/Italians/Hungarians/Bulgarians/Croats etc. They assumed a lot of the soldiers would be recovering from extra wine rations or otherwise not 100% vigilant. I think the Germans launched counte...
by Tortoise
Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3574
Views: 1193720

Re: The GOLD scream room

That Bullion DNA looks pretty cool -- https://www.mint.ca/en/bullion/bullion-dna -- That is pretty cool. Gold is such a great metal for that type of a security feature. I think that stamping a diffraction grating or something into the coin is a great idea. Something that you could never hope to acc...
by Tortoise
Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:39 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: West Provokes Russia to Protect Russians in Ukraine
Replies: 99
Views: 2500

Re: West Provokes Russia to Protect Russians in Ukraine

And money can keep getting laundered back to crooks in the USA, probably via crypto. Weapons go to Ukraine, weapons get sold to God knows who for crypto, crypto payoffs get transferred back to US gov't officials and the shadow government, some money goes into political campaigns to keep the scam go...
by Tortoise
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3574
Views: 1193720

Re: The GOLD scream room

I see they suggest not buying 22K gold coins and sticks with 24K for the reason I mentioned above. Is your timbre check what will help me detect a fake if it passes this plastic test? Yes, the ring test needs to be done in combination with the size and weight test. It may be possible to construct a...
by Tortoise
Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3574
Views: 1193720

Re: The GOLD scream room

Train your ear. Use known good coins. If it meets size, weight and timbre (rings true), it is as good a gold. You've found the philosopher's stone if you can make a base metal match gold for size and weight and timbre. And even the most wretched man can check that with a scale, an eye and an ear. N...
by Tortoise
Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 39
Views: 3022

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

Dec 7 (Reuters) - Vanguard Group Inc is pulling out of a major investment-industry initiative on tackling climate change, the world's biggest mutual fund manager said on Wednesday, explaining it wants to demonstrate independence and clarify its views for investors. https://www.reuters.com/business/...
by Tortoise
Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 329
Views: 26635

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Someone else on the forum, I can't remember who, pointed out that cash lost value to inflation this past year, therefore cash sucks and stocks are the way to go. That was the gist of the poster's point anyway. I thought to myself, well, wait a minute. Cash has a steady nominal value and has lost va...
by Tortoise
Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 329
Views: 26635

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Either way, I am less psychologically burdened by a given drop in portfolio value when I'm 4x25 than when I'm, say, 60/40. The "firewalls" between the asset classes do their thing. The firewalls are a good thing, but they do seem to break down during tight money recessions like the one we're in. St...
by Tortoise
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 9467

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Hal wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:19 am
The picture says it all....
It actually doesn’t. What time period does the plot represent?
by Tortoise
Thu Aug 11, 2022 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 329
Views: 26635

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One credit union is listing 4% for 5 year cd. https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/5-year-cd-rates.html At some point these rates start looking really tasty. 4% is 40k income per year on 1m deposit. 4% interest also happens to be a -4.5% real return (current CPI is 8.5%). Meaning you're effectively l...
by Tortoise
Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 329
Views: 26635

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

If you drop LTT, when would you see yourself buying back into them? Not sure. I suppose a good time to buy back in might be when LTT interest rates are high enough that (1) they exceed inflation, and (2) there would be decent annualized price appreciation if interest rates were to drop back down ne...
by Tortoise
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is the stick a dying art?
Replies: 26
Views: 1303

Re: Is the stick a dying art?

I taught my first girlfriend how to drive stick on our first date. Had a blast and scored major points.

Get your minds out of the gutter, you reprobates!
by Tortoise
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 329
Views: 26635

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters. I haven't done enough homework to identify a better allocation, but the basic idea I've been toying with is to drop LTTs and reallocate that piece to othe...
by Tortoise
Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Signatures
Replies: 162
Views: 42817

Re: Signatures

dualstow wrote: Have you all read the b’heads thread on Yubikey 🔑 & Vanguard?
Searching "Yubikey" on the Bogleheads forum just now turned up multiple threads. If your sig comment is referring to a particular one, could you provide a link to it?
by Tortoise
Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 329
Views: 26635

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun. [...] Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP. Over the past couple of years, I've be...
by Tortoise
Mon May 16, 2022 12:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 77
Views: 9692

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Mass Shootings seem to be capturing attention. I believe there is something like an average of 10 mass shootings per week in the US. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/15/1099008586/mass-shootings-us-2022-tally-number https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting Back in less propagandistic tim...
by Tortoise
Fri May 13, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 6479

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I'm trying to wrap my head around something. If rising rates are deflationary, when do bonds benefit from it? Because we all just witnessed bonds get slaughtered amidst the prospect of rising rates. Who says "rising rates are deflationary"? I think it's important to distinguish between cause and ef...
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 948
Views: 61354

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine