Search found 2689 matches

by Tortoise
Mon May 16, 2022 12:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 43
Views: 2973

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Mass Shootings seem to be capturing attention. I believe there is something like an average of 10 mass shootings per week in the US. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/15/1099008586/mass-shootings-us-2022-tally-number https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting Back in less propagandistic tim...
by Tortoise
Fri May 13, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 2785

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I'm trying to wrap my head around something. If rising rates are deflationary, when do bonds benefit from it? Because we all just witnessed bonds get slaughtered amidst the prospect of rising rates. Who says "rising rates are deflationary"? I think it's important to distinguish between cause and ef...
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 12:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Desert wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:57 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am
I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
Good question. It would be nice to have him back.
Looks like he's posted about it on his blog, which is listed on his forum profile:

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com

The posts generally seem pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin.
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 12:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Most unhinged reaction to SCOTUS leak
Replies: 50
Views: 867

Re: Most unhinged reaction to SCOTUS leak

I thought this reaction by Elizabeth Warren was pretty unhinged, too.

The Dems have been choosing some interesting hills to die on this year.

(By the way, shouldn't this thread be in the Politics subforum?)
by Tortoise
Thu Mar 24, 2022 5:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I understand you’re not swallowing the noble Ukraine narrative wholesale. And I’m not putting a blue and yellow flag in my window to signal how righteous I am — I see it in my neighborhood and roll my eyes. But, I am genuinely curious as to what you think is going on. Beyond the nobody-knows-for-su...
by Tortoise
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:10 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Fair question. For months, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and many other Russian officials repeatedly denied Russia planned to invade Ukraine – and then invaded anyway. I put this to Peskov: after all those lies, how can anyone ever believe Russia in future negotiations? - Christiane Amanpour h...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:30 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Just curious about the thought process among some of the posters in this thread, so a couple of questions: When a civilian building is attacked in Ukraine, and Russia denies that it did it, is it possible that Zelensky's administration ordered it in an attempt to maintain power by pulling other nati...
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

When I saw Russian tanks stopping because citizens were standing in front of them, it became clear that they weren't using their full available force. Can you imagine standing in front of a German tank in WWII? That wouldn't end well. So yeah, it looks like they're trying to take over without using...
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Now I feel like my posts aren’t being read. Page 1, first response to Maddy [...] Thanks for the reminder, dualstow. I sometimes don't remember everything that people have written on previous pages of a long thread. My complaint about it seeming like my post wasn't read wasn't directed at you and X...
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Desert. Back on the topic of Ukraine, I started watching the 2-hour Coach Red Pill video that whatchamacallit linked yesterday in this post . I've only gotten through the first ~30 minutes, but it's pretty interesting stuff. I hope to finish it tonight. So far, his t...
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Trust in established Western institutions has been eroding in recent years, possibly beyond repair. The erosion has accelerated after Covid -- for good reason, IMO. That is why conspiracy theories are proliferating in populist circles. Without trust, there can be no peace and prosperity. Trust is t...
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Huh. Interesting. It's like my previous post wasn't even read.

Enjoy your Two Minutes Hate against the wackiest conspiracy theorists, guys. Criticizing them is easier than seriously discussing the views of the more moderate majority of populists.
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:03 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 480
Views: 21042

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

If there's something going on that there's general agreement about, then that's a golden opportunity to try to heal some of the rifts going on. To decide ahead of time that because there seems to be general agreement about something, that something else must really be going on, is to have rift-maki...
by Tortoise
Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 2074
Views: 171971

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Sorry guys, I'm going to have to side with Dr. Ruben on this one. As Alec Baldwin showed us recently, we’re never gonna know if a gun is loaded until we squeeze the trigger. That’s just the way it goes. Ooh, harsh O0 Or know what’s in the bill until it’s passed? Yeah, the Pelosi joke would have bee...
by Tortoise
Tue Nov 02, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 2074
Views: 171971

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Dr. Ruben on the FDA panel: "We're never gonna learn about how safe the vaccine is until we start giving it. That's the way it goes." Seems legit. Was that intended to be sarcastic? Yes, sorry for not including a sarcasm emoji. :) Sorry guys, I'm going to have to side with Dr. Ruben on this one. As...
by Tortoise
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5468
Views: 658348

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

According to a friend who is a separations chemist, salicylic acid does not break down with time and has a much longer shelf life than the expiration date on the bottle indicates. But that's prob true of of a lot of things, so do your own diligence with aspirin and the rest. This 2012 study reporte...
by Tortoise
Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5468
Views: 658348

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

The only thing more maddening than the ridiculous mandates is having no clear metrics for relaxing them. Here in California, Emperor Newsom initially mandated a color-coded tier system of Covid restrictions whose least-restrictive tier (which still had some restrictions!) wasn't even physically ach...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5468
Views: 658348

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Reality check: There was an exodus of quality posters to the board in December. As Charlie Munger says, invert, always invert. What if someone who is polite, considerate, well spoken/written wants to go to the "Other Section" and engage in political discussion? Must they wade through a sewer and be...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Are We Living Under Communism?
Replies: 39
Views: 7333

Re: Are We Living Under Communism?

We still have firearms but that's about it. Notice you will almost never hear a politician refer to the country as a Republic? It's always a "democracy". Soon it will be "The People's Democratic Republic of America". Maybe that's because the word "republic" is too closely associated with the words ...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5468
Views: 658348

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

My reaction to this is that if they are put off by the political forums, then why can they not just ignore those? I completely understand if it was in the investing forums because that is invading the core part of the board. But for the misc forums I think that outside of direct insults people shou...
by Tortoise
Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5468
Views: 658348

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I can tell you what Pritzker's benchmark is: His polling numbers.

When the majority of IL residents start disapproving of Pritzker's mask mandate and that starts to negatively affect his polling numbers, he will lift the mandate (based on "the science", of course).
by Tortoise
Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The end of the Roth conversions?
Replies: 34
Views: 2754

Re: The end of the Roth conversions?

Ditto on favoring simpler. The current tax code is way too complex.
by Tortoise
Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The end of the Roth conversions?
Replies: 34
Views: 2754

Re: The end of the Roth conversions?

I don't think people are mad about Roth conversions, they're mad that Peter Thiel made a lot of money in a way that they wouldn't have done even if they'd known about it. And he won't have to pay taxes on it. I don't even think many people were mad about that. It's just Dem politicians doing what t...
by Tortoise
Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another portfolio analysis site: PP
Replies: 1
Views: 1111

Re: Another portfolio analysis site: PP

A couple of the numbers in that summary look suspect to me. This is what ETF Replay calculates for the 4x25 PP using the same ETFs:

10Y Annualized Return: 7.8% (much greater than 5.98%)

Sharpe Ratio over past year: 1.03 (much greater than 0.53)