Search found 2694 matches

by Tortoise
Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 130
Views: 7645

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

If you drop LTT, when would you see yourself buying back into them? Not sure. I suppose a good time to buy back in might be when LTT interest rates are high enough that (1) they exceed inflation, and (2) there would be decent annualized price appreciation if interest rates were to drop back down ne...
by Tortoise
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is the stick a dying art?
Replies: 27
Views: 528

Re: Is the stick a dying art?

I taught my first girlfriend how to drive stick on our first date. Had a blast and scored major points.

Get your minds out of the gutter, you reprobates!
by Tortoise
Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 130
Views: 7645

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

What kind of allocation are you considering switch to? This is a game that I love to play, because I enjoy tinkering with portfolio backtesters. I haven't done enough homework to identify a better allocation, but the basic idea I've been toying with is to drop LTTs and reallocate that piece to othe...
by Tortoise
Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Signatures
Replies: 176
Views: 37840

Re: Signatures

dualstow wrote: Have you all read the b’heads thread on Yubikey 🔑 & Vanguard?
Searching "Yubikey" on the Bogleheads forum just now turned up multiple threads. If your sig comment is referring to a particular one, could you provide a link to it?
by Tortoise
Thu Jul 28, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 130
Views: 7645

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

One of the assets in the PP is almost always going to be rat poison, often for a decade or longer. Right now that is LTTs. There is nothing new under the PP sun. [...] Thanks, Blue Ruin, I always enjoy reading your thoughtful, philosophical posts about the PP. Over the past couple of years, I've be...
by Tortoise
Mon May 16, 2022 12:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 57
Views: 5137

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Mass Shootings seem to be capturing attention. I believe there is something like an average of 10 mass shootings per week in the US. https://www.npr.org/2022/05/15/1099008586/mass-shootings-us-2022-tally-number https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting Back in less propagandistic tim...
by Tortoise
Fri May 13, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 4457

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I'm trying to wrap my head around something. If rising rates are deflationary, when do bonds benefit from it? Because we all just witnessed bonds get slaughtered amidst the prospect of rising rates. Who says "rising rates are deflationary"? I think it's important to distinguish between cause and ef...
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 12:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Desert wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:57 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am
I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
Good question. It would be nice to have him back.
Looks like he's posted about it on his blog, which is listed on his forum profile:

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com

The posts generally seem pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin.
by Tortoise
Wed May 04, 2022 12:40 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Most unhinged reaction to SCOTUS leak
Replies: 50
Views: 2490

Re: Most unhinged reaction to SCOTUS leak

I thought this reaction by Elizabeth Warren was pretty unhinged, too.

The Dems have been choosing some interesting hills to die on this year.

(By the way, shouldn't this thread be in the Politics subforum?)
by Tortoise
Thu Mar 24, 2022 5:11 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I understand you’re not swallowing the noble Ukraine narrative wholesale. And I’m not putting a blue and yellow flag in my window to signal how righteous I am — I see it in my neighborhood and roll my eyes. But, I am genuinely curious as to what you think is going on. Beyond the nobody-knows-for-su...
by Tortoise
Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:10 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Fair question. For months, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and many other Russian officials repeatedly denied Russia planned to invade Ukraine – and then invaded anyway. I put this to Peskov: after all those lies, how can anyone ever believe Russia in future negotiations? - Christiane Amanpour h...
by Tortoise
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:30 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Just curious about the thought process among some of the posters in this thread, so a couple of questions: When a civilian building is attacked in Ukraine, and Russia denies that it did it, is it possible that Zelensky's administration ordered it in an attempt to maintain power by pulling other nati...
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

When I saw Russian tanks stopping because citizens were standing in front of them, it became clear that they weren't using their full available force. Can you imagine standing in front of a German tank in WWII? That wouldn't end well. So yeah, it looks like they're trying to take over without using...
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Now I feel like my posts aren’t being read. Page 1, first response to Maddy [...] Thanks for the reminder, dualstow. I sometimes don't remember everything that people have written on previous pages of a long thread. My complaint about it seeming like my post wasn't read wasn't directed at you and X...
by Tortoise
Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Desert. Back on the topic of Ukraine, I started watching the 2-hour Coach Red Pill video that whatchamacallit linked yesterday in this post . I've only gotten through the first ~30 minutes, but it's pretty interesting stuff. I hope to finish it tonight. So far, his t...
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Trust in established Western institutions has been eroding in recent years, possibly beyond repair. The erosion has accelerated after Covid -- for good reason, IMO. That is why conspiracy theories are proliferating in populist circles. Without trust, there can be no peace and prosperity. Trust is t...
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Huh. Interesting. It's like my previous post wasn't even read.

Enjoy your Two Minutes Hate against the wackiest conspiracy theorists, guys. Criticizing them is easier than seriously discussing the views of the more moderate majority of populists.
by Tortoise
Mon Feb 28, 2022 1:03 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 524
Views: 34412

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

If there's something going on that there's general agreement about, then that's a golden opportunity to try to heal some of the rifts going on. To decide ahead of time that because there seems to be general agreement about something, that something else must really be going on, is to have rift-maki...
by Tortoise
Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 2074
Views: 193280

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Sorry guys, I'm going to have to side with Dr. Ruben on this one. As Alec Baldwin showed us recently, we’re never gonna know if a gun is loaded until we squeeze the trigger. That’s just the way it goes. Ooh, harsh O0 Or know what’s in the bill until it’s passed? Yeah, the Pelosi joke would have bee...
by Tortoise
Tue Nov 02, 2021 7:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 2074
Views: 193280

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Dr. Ruben on the FDA panel: "We're never gonna learn about how safe the vaccine is until we start giving it. That's the way it goes." Seems legit. Was that intended to be sarcastic? Yes, sorry for not including a sarcasm emoji. :) Sorry guys, I'm going to have to side with Dr. Ruben on this one. As...
by Tortoise
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726037

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

According to a friend who is a separations chemist, salicylic acid does not break down with time and has a much longer shelf life than the expiration date on the bottle indicates. But that's prob true of of a lot of things, so do your own diligence with aspirin and the rest. This 2012 study reporte...
by Tortoise
Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726037

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

The only thing more maddening than the ridiculous mandates is having no clear metrics for relaxing them. Here in California, Emperor Newsom initially mandated a color-coded tier system of Covid restrictions whose least-restrictive tier (which still had some restrictions!) wasn't even physically ach...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5510
Views: 726037

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Reality check: There was an exodus of quality posters to the board in December. As Charlie Munger says, invert, always invert. What if someone who is polite, considerate, well spoken/written wants to go to the "Other Section" and engage in political discussion? Must they wade through a sewer and be...
by Tortoise
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Are We Living Under Communism?
Replies: 39
Views: 8222

Re: Are We Living Under Communism?

We still have firearms but that's about it. Notice you will almost never hear a politician refer to the country as a Republic? It's always a "democracy". Soon it will be "The People's Democratic Republic of America". Maybe that's because the word "republic" is too closely associated with the words ...