Search found 390 matches

by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is Your Crypto Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 2332

Re: What is Your Crypto Portfolio

I sold my bitcoin ETFs (at a loss) except for GBTC. I bought them as part of a previous iteration of my portfolio; however, I recently split my PP and VP, moving these assets to the VP. I'm going to run my VP as HB prescribes, by entering positions w/ pre-defined exit criteria. So I figured it would...
by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Var - Crypto Variable Port
Replies: 2
Views: 379

Re: Var - Crypto Variable Port

How goes?
by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

There is a belief amongst some that the US Government helped to create the gold futures market to suppress prices. This is largely fueled by some documents pointing to the government doing research about the impact of physical gold if a paper gold market were established. For example, https://wikil...
by Jack Jones
Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

I willing never stop beating this drum: BTC was supposed to be p2p money. Technical challenges weren't met with creative solutions and this value proposition has been abandoned. BTC was supposed to be "digital gold". It's scarcity has yet to totally distinguish it from other cryptocurrencies and th...
by Jack Jones
Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 231
Views: 27635

Re: BTC in the PP

Jack Jones wrote:
Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:11 pm

Stocks: 25%
Bonds: 20%
Gold: 20%
Cash: 20%
Bitcoin: 15%
by Jack Jones
Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 231
Views: 27635

Re: BTC in the PP

Bitcoin hit <10% of the model portfolio, so I performed a rebalance:

-cash
-gold
-stocks
+bonds
+BTC

The portfolio now owns 56% more Bitcoin.

Portfolio down 16% since inception (Bitcoin -38%).
by Jack Jones
Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 36
Views: 1152

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

This was a great exercise. I did it and arrived at a 60/40 PP/VP split ( for context, I'm 38 and my wife is pregnant w/ our second, god help us ). My wife was slightly more conservative, so we landed at 65/35. This was way more conservative than I would have landed had I not done the exercise. ;D C...
by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses…. So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime . Yup. Now we’re getting somewhere. I’...
by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

It’s not about value to us. It’s about getting a rise out of us. The language he uses makes it clear. I’m sure he loves the fact that we’re all talking about him now. Based on the “points” he makes, I don’t think he has a good understanding of probability, tail risks, etc. He seems to believe you ca...
by Jack Jones
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

There is a belief amongst some that the US Government helped to create the gold futures market to suppress prices. This is largely fueled by some documents pointing to the government doing research about the impact of physical gold if a paper gold market were established. For example, https://wikil...
by Jack Jones
Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:22 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5593

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession. Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO. SECOND ARTICLE Does Jesus Want ...
by Jack Jones
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Mathjak, you are missing my point entirely. I think your misunderstanding is rooted in the fact that you believe we hold gold to protect us from a bear market or something. Good day to you, sir.
by Jack Jones
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Let me spell it out for you. This was the part that was trolling: Paying for the insurance of the safety assets and coming in last in the bull and then lagging in the bear market you were buying that insurance for means you may have been sold a bill of good s with features and benefits you didn’t ge...
by Jack Jones
Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5593

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Desert wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.
Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.
by Jack Jones
Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

The 10 year CAGR is a good addition, gives more context. I appreciate the weekly updates. It does kind of show you if you are paying to much in expenses so to speak . Paying for the insurance of the safety assets and coming in last in the bull and then lagging in the bear market you were buying tha...
by Jack Jones
Sun Jun 19, 2022 5:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Bitcoin is just too young and Harry was wise. Even though he would probably have been fascinated by it, I can’t imagine that he would have recommended crypto to investors depending on his sage advice, let alone telling people to put in in a portfolio of “money you can’t afford to lose.” Bitcoin sup...
by Jack Jones
Sun Jun 19, 2022 5:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

For those that got into it at a high point, and remain committed, this is probably the time to DCA otherwise you're waiting for as much as 400% gain to get even. That's a lot of movement, even for Bitcoin. But doing it would feel like running towards an oncoming train in order to jump off the track...
by Jack Jones
Sat Jun 18, 2022 6:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Some store of value. The only thing for sure at this point is it can't go any lower than zero, so we know there's a floor. But if you're an intrepid speculator, what better time than after a precipitous 70% crash? The counter argument is that after a crash like that the market trust in Bitcoin migh...
by Jack Jones
Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:08 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1082116

Re: The GOLD scream room

Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore. Could be My understanding of gold mining is that the extractability of gold varies. So they may be saying that if money was no object, they could extract that much. But how much is economic...
by Jack Jones
Fri Jun 17, 2022 4:58 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 241

Re: Inflation

The level of debt seems like a significant difference:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/

Does this limit how high it can raise interest rates to combat inflation?
by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?
Replies: 27
Views: 5287

Re: Is the PP Meant for Alt Right Extremists Only?

tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:58 pm

The Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell has said inflation is 1.4% and maybe will reach 1.7% at the worst in coming years. So if we have low inflation and our government economic experts are telling us this, then why hold gold? Why not TIPS?

In Jerome Powell We Trust
by Jack Jones
Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:52 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 241

Inflation

What’s different about this situation versus the inflation that Volcker fought?
by Jack Jones
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

What are the rational people who actually want to make money going to do? (Hint: Exactly what we are seeing reflected in BTC's price.)
Personally, I wish I was more rational with the Bitcoin I bought in 2014. I would have made a lot of money.
by Jack Jones
Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:19 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 486707

Re: Stock scream room

Ultimately I think the main point is that the US 60/40 was just destroying everything out there for this most recent period. The PP is naturally going to bad against that. My big surprise was how the World TSM portfolio was much closer to the PP than the Jack Bogle special. I totally get tracking e...
by Jack Jones
Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:20 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1174
Views: 348044

Re: YouTube Junkie

Desert wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:07 am
Oh no, Mr. Bookman, the Seinfeld library cop has died. I really liked this character:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNlEZERpQqQ
Ah, RIP. I liked this scene too.