Gyroscopic Investing

Jack Jones

I sold my bitcoin ETFs (at a loss) except for GBTC. I bought them as part of a previous iteration of my portfolio; however, I recently split my PP and VP, moving these assets to the VP. I'm going to run my VP as HB prescribes, by entering positions w/ pre-defined exit criteria. So I figured it would...

Jack Jones

How goes?

Jack Jones

There is a belief amongst some that the US Government helped to create the gold futures market to suppress prices. This is largely fueled by some documents pointing to the government doing research about the impact of physical gold if a paper gold market were established. For example, https://wikil...

Jack Jones

I willing never stop beating this drum: BTC was supposed to be p2p money. Technical challenges weren't met with creative solutions and this value proposition has been abandoned. BTC was supposed to be "digital gold". It's scarcity has yet to totally distinguish it from other cryptocurrencies and th...

Jack Jones

Jack Jones wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:11 pm

Stocks: 25%
Bonds: 20%
Gold: 20%
Cash: 20%
Bitcoin: 15%

Jack Jones

Bitcoin hit <10% of the model portfolio, so I performed a rebalance:

-cash
-gold
-stocks
+bonds
+BTC

The portfolio now owns 56% more Bitcoin.

Portfolio down 16% since inception (Bitcoin -38%).

Jack Jones

This was a great exercise. I did it and arrived at a 60/40 PP/VP split ( for context, I'm 38 and my wife is pregnant w/ our second, god help us ). My wife was slightly more conservative, so we landed at 65/35. This was way more conservative than I would have landed had I not done the exercise. ;D C...

Jack Jones

There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses…. So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime . Yup. Now we’re getting somewhere. I’...

Jack Jones

It’s not about value to us. It’s about getting a rise out of us. The language he uses makes it clear. I’m sure he loves the fact that we’re all talking about him now. Based on the “points” he makes, I don’t think he has a good understanding of probability, tail risks, etc. He seems to believe you ca...

Jack Jones

There is a belief amongst some that the US Government helped to create the gold futures market to suppress prices. This is largely fueled by some documents pointing to the government doing research about the impact of physical gold if a paper gold market were established. For example, https://wikil...

Jack Jones

And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession. Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO. SECOND ARTICLE Does Jesus Want ...

Jack Jones

Mathjak, you are missing my point entirely. I think your misunderstanding is rooted in the fact that you believe we hold gold to protect us from a bear market or something. Good day to you, sir.

Jack Jones

Let me spell it out for you. This was the part that was trolling: Paying for the insurance of the safety assets and coming in last in the bull and then lagging in the bear market you were buying that insurance for means you may have been sold a bill of good s with features and benefits you didn’t ge...

Jack Jones

Desert wrote: ↑
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
And certainly any Christian should be more concerned with the body count than their own fixation with gun ownership. We'll need something other than Jesus to defend our gun obsession.

Jesus wouldn’t own a gun. Christians shouldn’t be concerned with self defense, IMO.

Jack Jones

The 10 year CAGR is a good addition, gives more context. I appreciate the weekly updates. It does kind of show you if you are paying to much in expenses so to speak . Paying for the insurance of the safety assets and coming in last in the bull and then lagging in the bear market you were buying tha...

Jack Jones

Bitcoin is just too young and Harry was wise. Even though he would probably have been fascinated by it, I can’t imagine that he would have recommended crypto to investors depending on his sage advice, let alone telling people to put in in a portfolio of “money you can’t afford to lose.” Bitcoin sup...

Jack Jones

For those that got into it at a high point, and remain committed, this is probably the time to DCA otherwise you're waiting for as much as 400% gain to get even. That's a lot of movement, even for Bitcoin. But doing it would feel like running towards an oncoming train in order to jump off the track...

Jack Jones

Some store of value. The only thing for sure at this point is it can't go any lower than zero, so we know there's a floor. But if you're an intrepid speculator, what better time than after a precipitous 70% crash? The counter argument is that after a crash like that the market trust in Bitcoin migh...

Jack Jones

Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore. Could be My understanding of gold mining is that the extractability of gold varies. So they may be saying that if money was no object, they could extract that much. But how much is economic...

Jack Jones

The level of debt seems like a significant difference:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/

Does this limit how high it can raise interest rates to combat inflation?

Jack Jones

tomfoolery wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:58 pm

The Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell has said inflation is 1.4% and maybe will reach 1.7% at the worst in coming years. So if we have low inflation and our government economic experts are telling us this, then why hold gold? Why not TIPS?

In Jerome Powell We Trust

Jack Jones

What’s different about this situation versus the inflation that Volcker fought?

Jack Jones

What are the rational people who actually want to make money going to do? (Hint: Exactly what we are seeing reflected in BTC's price.)

Personally, I wish I was more rational with the Bitcoin I bought in 2014. I would have made a lot of money.

Jack Jones

Ultimately I think the main point is that the US 60/40 was just destroying everything out there for this most recent period. The PP is naturally going to bad against that. My big surprise was how the World TSM portfolio was much closer to the PP than the Jack Bogle special. I totally get tracking e...

Jack Jones

Desert wrote: ↑
Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:07 am
Oh no, Mr. Bookman, the Seinfeld library cop has died. I really liked this character:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNlEZERpQqQ

Ah, RIP. I liked this scene too.

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