Search found 679 matches

by Jack Jones
Sun Apr 27, 2025 4:22 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: interesting podcast on risk parity radio on long term bonds
Replies: 2
Views: 3703

Re: interesting podcast on risk parity radio on long term bonds

There's a Harry Browne inside joke in the first couple minutes. Needless to say, I subscribed. Thanks.
by Jack Jones
Sun Apr 20, 2025 9:02 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2891
Views: 1978735

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Mountaineer wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:39 am
dualstow wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:22 am
Smith1776 wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:21 am How/why are there like 700 guest users suddenly? :o
Good question!
They are trying to become regulars before the tariffs fully kick in. The membership cost is increasing by 50%, from $0 to $0.
O0
by Jack Jones
Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:07 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US stock exposure without severe Mag Seven overconcentration
Replies: 11
Views: 4550

Re: US stock exposure without severe Mag Seven overconcentration

If you arent going to cap weight, you need to explain why Nvidia et al are mispriced by the investors looking at their numbers. In the present, you have examples like Tesla where irrational people have 100% of their net worth in it because Musk is cool. In the past, you have examples like the dot c...
by Jack Jones
Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US stock exposure without severe Mag Seven overconcentration
Replies: 11
Views: 4550

Re: US stock exposure without severe Mag Seven overconcentration

ochotona wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:41 am RAFI™ Fundamental Indices
Rob Arnott discusses the Fundamental Indices in this podcast:

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/157

They seem like a reasonable substitute for market-cap weighted funds.
by Jack Jones
Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Thinking about the unthinkable - Treasuries as a risky asset
Replies: 12
Views: 2222

Re: Thinking about the unthinkable - Treasuries as a risky asset

About half of my long bonds are now AAA and AA+ corporates. (As a reminder: that is what Harry recommended in place of Treasurys when you don't think your government is on the moral up-and-up). They are cheap right now too. Ben Graham also thought these high quality corporate bonds were suitable fo...
by Jack Jones
Tue Apr 08, 2025 5:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does variance matter to long term investors?
Replies: 10
Views: 2291

Re: Does variance matter to long term investors?

It's cool that this optimal strategy is only as bad as 60/40 in terms of drawdowns; however, we know that we can construct portfolios with a lower pucker factor. The variance matters camp is perhaps more aware of the psychology of investing and realizes that a portfolio is only good if you can hold...
by Jack Jones
Fri Apr 04, 2025 12:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 384000

Re: BTC in the PP

Bitcoin seemingly uncorrelated to the ongoing carnage, at least in the short term.
by Jack Jones
Tue Apr 01, 2025 5:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Does variance matter to long term investors?
Replies: 10
Views: 2291

Does variance matter to long term investors?

I've been trying to square away the results of this paper: We challenge two tenets of lifecycle investing: (i) diversify across stocks and bonds and (ii) reduce equity allocations with age. An optimal lifetime allocation of 33% domestic stocks, 67% international stocks, 0% bonds, and 0% bills vastly...
by Jack Jones
Fri Mar 28, 2025 10:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ex-US stocks rising
Replies: 34
Views: 15118

Re: ex-US stocks rising

It's more than just currency. Perth Tolle is the index creator for the FRDM emerging marker fund . I actually know her here in Houston. Her work suggests that less free, more autocratic, more oligarchic / State Owned Enterprises countries have poorer returns to investors. Since inception the FRDM f...
by Jack Jones
Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3940
Views: 2486967

Re: The GOLD scream room

Lincoln’s Treasury secretary immediately recognized that the government, too, would be forced to go off gold. A despondent Chase alerted Cisco, “I deplore exceedingly the suspension . . . it is certain that the Govt cannot pay coin unless the Banks do.” Chase had fought harder than anyone to stay o...
by Jack Jones
Mon Mar 17, 2025 3:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3940
Views: 2486967

Re: The GOLD scream room

I’m kind of skeptical that I’ll ever rebalance gold. l’m starting to think of it as part of its own portfolio. It’s not part of my retirement savings. It’s not to be touched except as a last resort. Added to when excess cash is on hand. Passed down to my children with these same instructions, along ...
by Jack Jones
Fri Mar 14, 2025 12:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Trump says he has directed US Treasury to stop minting new pennies, citing rising cost
Replies: 42
Views: 14766

Re: Trump says he has directed US Treasury to stop minting new pennies, citing rising cost

… When others know where 'your' money is - and have control capacity, that's no longer your money its just a loan, open to being partially/fully confiscated at any time - such as via unavoidable punitive taxation (which takes many forms such as via currency debasement). You become a slave - self se...
by Jack Jones
Wed Mar 12, 2025 5:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Great Idea by Judy Shelton - Gold Bond
Replies: 9
Views: 4337

Re: Great Idea by Judy Shelton - Gold Bond

When the dollar was backed by gold, bonds were already gold bonds.

It would be cool to have your employment contract priced in gold.
by Jack Jones
Wed Mar 12, 2025 5:07 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1547
Views: 942109

Re: Stock scream room

Xan wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 11:32 am There wasn't anything (like quoting) to make it clear who was saying what. I've heard it many times here that it's up to the speaker/writer to make sure that his meaning is clear, rather than leaving it up to the listener/reader to figure it out.
I believe Vinny himself has made such claims!
by Jack Jones
Wed Mar 12, 2025 7:00 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ex-US stocks rising
Replies: 34
Views: 15118

Re: ex-US stocks rising

dualstow wrote: Tue Mar 11, 2025 5:53 pm Treated differently?


35:00
by Jack Jones
Tue Mar 11, 2025 3:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ex-US stocks rising
Replies: 34
Views: 15118

Re: ex-US stocks rising

As of 12/31/2024 the expected return of Non-US Stock Markets was 10% vs 5.6% US Stock Market: https://elmwealth.com/capital-market-assumptions/ You can't predict the future, but turns out you can make some educated guesses. I'm in the US, and I don't invest internationally because foreign investors ...
by Jack Jones
Sat Mar 08, 2025 4:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ‘Truly Staggering’ Weather Disaster Will Occur ‘Someday, Any Day,’ Buffett Says
Replies: 7
Views: 3137

Re: ‘Truly Staggering’ Weather Disaster Will Occur ‘Someday, Any Day,’ Buffett Says

Buffet often says a big east coast hurricane will be significant for Berkshire. I guess they write a lot of insurance contracts there.
by Jack Jones
Sat Mar 08, 2025 4:51 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: DOGE killed off IRS Free File
Replies: 17
Views: 4591

Re: DOGE killed off IRS Free File

It looks like "Free File" is different from "Free File Fillable Forms" , which is the great product that I use. Or are they the same thing? You've been using the latter for years? The former is something relatively new? Many years. I don't know how old the other one is or really...
by Jack Jones
Wed Mar 05, 2025 7:40 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Grilling Fauci
Replies: 51
Views: 33842

Re: Grilling Fauci

First there was this: https://oversight.house.gov/release/covid-select-subcommittee-releases-dr-faucis-transcript-highlights-key-takeaways-in-new-memo/ Then they were grilling him today on CSPAN. Anyone else catch it? They were right. The harm this man caused to this country will continue to ripple...
by Jack Jones
Tue Mar 04, 2025 10:31 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 384000

Re: BTC in the PP

I ended up selling my MicroStrategy position. I had already told dualstow via DM like a week ago, but wasn't ready to admit it here. I know. I know. Make fun of me all you want. I originally liquidated to pay for grad school, and I ended up just getting lucky that it was just before the big dump in...
by Jack Jones
Wed Feb 19, 2025 11:23 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Grilling Fauci
Replies: 51
Views: 33842

Re: Grilling Fauci

And if you think about the pure absurdity of fauci claiming with a straight face the coronavirus came from a market adjacent to the lab where the ecohealth alliance was funding research into the exact virus. These people should be held accountable. And going so far as to attempt to discredit and ru...
by Jack Jones
Wed Feb 19, 2025 11:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 384000

Re: BTC in the PP

Another article on the topic of debanking:

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/ ... debunking/
by Jack Jones
Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Study calls for US taxation of cryptocurrency
Replies: 23
Views: 19218

Re: Study calls for US taxation of cryptocurrency

Yeah they really don’t want cryptocurrency to be a currency. Digital assets are kosher though.
by Jack Jones
Sat Feb 08, 2025 10:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Study calls for US taxation of cryptocurrency
Replies: 23
Views: 19218

Re: Study calls for US taxation of cryptocurrency

I Shrugged wrote: Fri Feb 07, 2025 4:55 pm US citizens could not own gold in 1967.
Ah that bit of context makes the quote less ambiguous. Thanks.