Congrats on bitcoin, Smithers. You can afford some big screens. It's been a year or so of great returns for sure. My Bitcoin position is much more conservative than it was, but it's still very significant. It's now in a proper variable portfolio consisting of: 33% Bitcoin 33% MicroStrategy stock 33...

Happy Independence Day. Wave that flag.

I'm not using TIPS, but I do find the liability-matching strategy appealing. I set up a nominal bond ladder to cover my mortgage expense from age 59 until it is paid off. I may build out a TIPS ladder for the property tax expense at some point, but Tyler's article has given me pause: https://portfol...

Ordered some bonds at auction yesterday. The indicative yield was above 5% I bought a slug of the 4.75000% 05/15/2055 in the last auction. Acquisition yield: 4.819%. I wager: Sometime between now and 2055, yields will go lower and I'll make a nice profit. OR If not, I'll HODL them as I'll need at l...

There's a Harry Browne inside joke in the first couple minutes. Needless to say, I subscribed. Thanks.

Mountaineer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:39 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:22 am

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:21 am How/why are there like 700 guest users suddenly?

Good question!

They are trying to become regulars before the tariffs fully kick in. The membership cost is increasing by 50%, from $0 to $0.

If you arent going to cap weight, you need to explain why Nvidia et al are mispriced by the investors looking at their numbers. In the present, you have examples like Tesla where irrational people have 100% of their net worth in it because Musk is cool. In the past, you have examples like the dot c...

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:41 am RAFI™ Fundamental Indices

Rob Arnott discusses the Fundamental Indices in this podcast:

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/157

They seem like a reasonable substitute for market-cap weighted funds.

About half of my long bonds are now AAA and AA+ corporates. (As a reminder: that is what Harry recommended in place of Treasurys when you don't think your government is on the moral up-and-up). They are cheap right now too. Ben Graham also thought these high quality corporate bonds were suitable fo...

It's cool that this optimal strategy is only as bad as 60/40 in terms of drawdowns; however, we know that we can construct portfolios with a lower pucker factor. The variance matters camp is perhaps more aware of the psychology of investing and realizes that a portfolio is only good if you can hold...

Bitcoin seemingly uncorrelated to the ongoing carnage, at least in the short term.

I've been trying to square away the results of this paper: We challenge two tenets of lifecycle investing: (i) diversify across stocks and bonds and (ii) reduce equity allocations with age. An optimal lifetime allocation of 33% domestic stocks, 67% international stocks, 0% bonds, and 0% bills vastly...

It's more than just currency. Perth Tolle is the index creator for the FRDM emerging marker fund . I actually know her here in Houston. Her work suggests that less free, more autocratic, more oligarchic / State Owned Enterprises countries have poorer returns to investors. Since inception the FRDM f...

Lincoln’s Treasury secretary immediately recognized that the government, too, would be forced to go off gold. A despondent Chase alerted Cisco, “I deplore exceedingly the suspension . . . it is certain that the Govt cannot pay coin unless the Banks do.” Chase had fought harder than anyone to stay o...

I’m kind of skeptical that I’ll ever rebalance gold. l’m starting to think of it as part of its own portfolio. It’s not part of my retirement savings. It’s not to be touched except as a last resort. Added to when excess cash is on hand. Passed down to my children with these same instructions, along ...

… When others know where 'your' money is - and have control capacity, that's no longer your money its just a loan, open to being partially/fully confiscated at any time - such as via unavoidable punitive taxation (which takes many forms such as via currency debasement). You become a slave - self se...

When the dollar was backed by gold, bonds were already gold bonds.

It would be cool to have your employment contract priced in gold.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 12, 2025 11:32 am There wasn't anything (like quoting) to make it clear who was saying what. I've heard it many times here that it's up to the speaker/writer to make sure that his meaning is clear, rather than leaving it up to the listener/reader to figure it out.

I believe Vinny himself has made such claims!

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 11, 2025 5:53 pm Treated differently?

35:00

As of 12/31/2024 the expected return of Non-US Stock Markets was 10% vs 5.6% US Stock Market: https://elmwealth.com/capital-market-assumptions/ You can't predict the future, but turns out you can make some educated guesses. I'm in the US, and I don't invest internationally because foreign investors ...

Buffet often says a big east coast hurricane will be significant for Berkshire. I guess they write a lot of insurance contracts there.

It looks like "Free File" is different from "Free File Fillable Forms" , which is the great product that I use. Or are they the same thing? You've been using the latter for years? The former is something relatively new? Many years. I don't know how old the other one is or really...

First there was this: https://oversight.house.gov/release/covid-select-subcommittee-releases-dr-faucis-transcript-highlights-key-takeaways-in-new-memo/ Then they were grilling him today on CSPAN. Anyone else catch it? They were right. The harm this man caused to this country will continue to ripple...

I ended up selling my MicroStrategy position. I had already told dualstow via DM like a week ago, but wasn't ready to admit it here. I know. I know. Make fun of me all you want. I originally liquidated to pay for grad school, and I ended up just getting lucky that it was just before the big dump in...

And if you think about the pure absurdity of fauci claiming with a straight face the coronavirus came from a market adjacent to the lab where the ecohealth alliance was funding research into the exact virus. These people should be held accountable. And going so far as to attempt to discredit and ru...