Search found 4665 matches

by mathjak107
Thu Jul 17, 2025 1:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The 60/40 is in the Worst Stretch in 150 years
Replies: 1
Views: 176

Re: The 60/40 is in the Worst Stretch in 150 years

Equities and gold beat equities and bonds over almost All time frames the last 25 years

So no surprise
by mathjak107
Tue Jul 15, 2025 4:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Moving up to 4.9%
Replies: 128
Views: 91086

Re: Moving up to 4.9%

the pp may do okay going forward once the tariffs are resolved and we see the effect . tlt is close to its historical average interest rate , gold may still have more to go with all the chaos and the world frowning on our dollar . stocks are iffy and no body knows what will be . i don’t think they d...
by mathjak107
Tue Jul 15, 2025 3:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Moving up to 4.9%
Replies: 128
Views: 91086

Re: Moving up to 4.9%

less risky funds like qdsnx were up a little bit today too. they are a mix of different types of alternative fund strategy’s I understand your disdain for 30-year bonds, mathjak. They’re widely unloved. But qdsnx looks worse. What’s so great about it? qdsnx up almost 8% ytd its ahead of the s&p...
by mathjak107
Fri Jul 11, 2025 5:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈
Replies: 7
Views: 3936

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈

except the portfolio is very rate sensitive at the end of the day . all assets today also get hit at the same time when risk is , as they say OFF . Today if someone wants reliable seesaw action between assets there are ways like inverse funds , long short funds and managed. futures . in harry’s time...
by mathjak107
Thu Jul 10, 2025 3:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈
Replies: 7
Views: 3936

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈

pretty much that the pp flaw is it bets equal amounts of dollars on anything but equal amounts of risk playing out . deflation being the last likely and prosperity being the most likely markets are up 2/3’s of the time typically. for more than the last two decades we have had gold beating bonds … eq...
by mathjak107
Wed Jul 09, 2025 2:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 7205

Re: Liability-Matching Portfolio?

after a decade drawing down our balance is higher than ever . we now have ten years left to feed . so we really don’t watch spending anymore . but we do gauge ourselves with 95/5 each year . we seem to average the same draw range year after year despite our spending which includes a lot of eating ou...
by mathjak107
Tue Jul 08, 2025 1:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: interesting video on the pp and harry
Replies: 1
Views: 1676

interesting video on the pp and harry

https://www.nbfwm.ca/advisor/the-filipi ... roach.html

scroll down a bit for the video .

it says the basis for the pp goes back hundreds of years , never heard of this guy from the 1500’s
by mathjak107
Mon Jul 07, 2025 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 13053

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

dick in ga is bAck

take a hike , no one wants your nasty responses

talk about a babbling idiot who interrupts discussions with his stupid comments
by mathjak107
Fri Jul 04, 2025 12:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 13053

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

frugal , i do depend on those withdrawals to live so i dont follow your question . if you are concerned about the 5% drops in down markets. , they are irrelevant since your draw is so much higher than it would have been if you used the standard constant dollar method which is the conventional 4% swr...
by mathjak107
Fri Jul 04, 2025 5:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 13053

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

the problem with the old 4% swr as it stands. is it does not self adjust . meaning that 90% of the already 125 rolling 30 year periods we have had , you ended 30 years with more than you started with using 50/50 to 60/40 so without a system of raises in place besides inflation adjusting , to much mo...
by mathjak107
Thu Jul 03, 2025 1:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 13053

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

it’s no different than any other portfolio . we have been using bob clyatts 95/5 method of withdrawal for a decade now . we look at the balance each dec 31 . we get to set as spending goal posts the higher of 4% of the balance or in a down year , 4% of the balance or 5% less then we were taking . wh...
by mathjak107
Thu Jul 03, 2025 1:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 17353

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

if inflation over 30 years ate up half your purchasing power , then getting back your 1k in an individual bond and it buys 500 dollars worth of stuff, that is a loss no matter how you look at it . the fund does not have a fixed rate like the bond so your interest rate will change . over time if rate...
by mathjak107
Mon Jun 30, 2025 3:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 17353

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

the pp was designed for a much longer maturity tlt has an effective maturity of 25.67 years harry specifically says on page 354 of why the best laid plans go wrong , maturity needs to be at least 25 years to qualify. page 355 says anytime the maturity of the 30 year bond falls to 25 years , you need...
by mathjak107
Sun Jun 29, 2025 1:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 17353

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

back in the old day harry used to recommend the benham capital target date funds . they were bond funds with fixed maturity dates . but every five years you had to sell them and buy longer dated ones , so even they , having fixed maturity dates and were identical to holding individual bonds you stil...
by mathjak107
Sun Jun 29, 2025 9:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 17353

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

actually not quite the case . in order to maintain the power of the long bonds they do not get held to maturity . you pretty much have to sell them off every 5 years and replace them with the longest maturity. so when it comes to holding a constant duration like you would for a portfolio that counts...
by mathjak107
Sat Jun 28, 2025 1:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 7205

Re: Liability-Matching Portfolio?

we use bob clyatts 95/5 dynamic method of withdrawal. we have been retired 10 years and find it as simple as can be . we simply set our goalposts at 4% of the actually balance each year on dec31 . in the event of a down year like 2022 you take the higher of : 4% of the balance or 5% less then you to...
by mathjak107
Wed Jun 25, 2025 6:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 17607

Re: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio

interesting it doesn’t have the big 2022 drop yet from what i see
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 6008

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

except for long bonds to do their thing when everything else is falling apart depends very heavily on why things are falling apart .

we saw devastation in every asset clsss in 2022 and long bonds had tlt falling minus 32%.

so they are kind of a fair weather friend
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 12:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 6008

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

my feeling is never . the fed is so committed to not having a deflation or depression that i fail to see the reason anymore . they do more harm then good for the last two decades as gold and equities did a far better job than bonds and equities . as of friday i own no bonds and increased gold to 10%...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 6008

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

yeah , the last few years saw devastating damage to long term bonds . i remember someone here posting how i called long term bonds wrong and i was eating my words a few years ago when tlt hit i think 165 . well i dont remember who it was but i hope they enjoyed the 50% drop . it was so obvious playi...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 6008

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

the govt does not control bond rates , investors do . as we saw in april when the world pulled back from our auction and banks were on the verge of getting a margin call if trump didn’t reverse his tariffs , it’s investors that determine rates . that is why we get the inverted yield curve and invest...
by mathjak107
Wed Jun 18, 2025 10:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 6008

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

damn , typed a reply to frugal and accidentally hit report instead of send frugal i always loved harry and his books since the 1980’s . but in my accumulation stage he was way to conservative for me . i wanted pedal to the metal growth. i tried the pp in retirement but it wasn’t a good choice at tha...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 17, 2025 5:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 6008

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

when you go back thru time frames the last two decades it’s like equities and gold beat equities and bonds over most time frames . i am retired and really have no use for bonds at this stage . i keep a minimal amount but i can’t really say why . call me old school . equities gold and cash instrument...