which is why i went back to 2020 in my look originally as to how it behaved in both covid and the rising rates and inflation which crushed conventional portfolios. others have looked at it too https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-WZDwcF8/0/DfNGGTksPgc4xXrsnsPg3QD4krmHqNfGQ9pbsqkQW/L/i-WZDwcF8-L.jpg a...

yep , i believe its day came and went for conventional investing …2022 showed us how vulnerable the pp is to rates and inflation and a strong dollar unlike the 1970s with all the once in a lifetime events for gold i believe for someone who wants a defensive portfolio today there are far better risk ...

like the buggy , conventional investing for lower risk may be a thing of the past . harry could never imagine the masses having simple access to the funds of today that are leveraged as well as go long and short or able to have managed futures working for them in a reliable fashion to create what ma...

depends on the bond funds held and their duration as far as how bad they would get hit. a leveraged risk parity portfolio performed very differently in the 2022 down turn as well .. it had better returns , lower risk , less draw down then the pp did. i posted the carolina reaper results above which ...

long term bonds and if short term bonds funds were used , them too, plus a negative year for equities in 2022.

like i said years ago , rising rates would be kryptonite to the pp

i gave up trying to watch it unfortunately..to long and boring for me to focus on it..

tried a comparison between the pp and the leveraged risk parity portfolio i have been experimenting with which is 20% upro a 3x leveraged equities fund 13.333% tyd a 3x leveraged bond fund and 66.666% dbmf a non leveraged managed futures fund i wanted a real tough patch for assets to look at so i pi...

from 2021 it’s just about been flat

100k has gained about 1200 bucks from jan 2021 to april 30th 1 2024 . a .38% cagr


https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... SUlrdyQOt3

.. I made my only investments now 21 years ago in January 2003. All investments since have gone into cash. .. Seems like I would have been much better off over these last 21 years by having done the exact opposite. Having the bulk in Growth and giving away the Value funds. Opposite: I thought you w...

the zero fee fidelity funds are not the same benchmark as an s&p fund or total market fund . they created their own index to avoid paying licensing fees , which while close in performance isn’t exactly the same as the index holds. not that is a good or bad thing but it is just different that cam...

voo actually had a better return in 2023 than splg despite a slightly higher fee. both are s&p 500 funds. 26.32 for voo , 26.24 for the lower cost splg. as i always say lower expenses don’t always mean much since so many other factors are involved . i have been experimenting with a leveraged ris...

i run 3 core portfolios . one for short term spending which is 25% equities and 75% assorted fixed income another for the intermediate term which is 55-60% equities and a growth and income model and finally a 100% equity model consisting of berkshire and vti plus 2 years of cash , one of which we sp...

the boogey man to the tips idea is taxes also it leaves little cushion for the unexpected larger expenses in life with so little in equities , because our personal cost of living does not mimic the cpi . i think this would be one of the rare instances one would really want to look in to a deferred ...

doing the first monthly rebalancing on the carolina reaper leveraged portfolio.. the managed futures fund dbmf is flat , have to add a bit to tyd and upro the 3x funds . i find its best to rebalance these highly leveraged funds once a month .. its easiest to add a little bit of money instead of sell...

i like the combo because berkshire tempers the volatility of vti . as i posted in the variable portfolio thread , i threw about 50k in to a leveraged risk parity portfolio as an experiment..considering it uses 3x leveraged equities and bonds with managed futures it has been pretty docile so far. its...

for 2023 the final numbers for the models i use just posted the fidelity insight conservative income model , which is 75% less volatile than the s&p , up just under 10%. we typically keep about 5 -6 years of spending in this model along with 2 years of cash instruments . the insight growth and i...

i just went as far back with these funds as i could in portfolio visualizer. first time running it myself . i was able to go back to jan 2020 , so almost 4 years a 60/40 consisting of 60% voo (s&p fund )and 40% bnd ( total bond fund ) took 100k and turned it in to 126,130 , a cagr of 6.11% the 6...

we have had some interesting conversation on using leveraged portfolios to reduces risk and increase gains .. and noooo this isn’t about using margin or mortgage money .. borrowing money and just buying more of a 60/40 only buys a bigger 60/40 . but it is still a 60/40 with all the draw down and gai...

supposedly a leveraged 60/40 can deliver the performance of 90-100% equities but with less risk . but is it true in practice or is it another situation of looking good in theory and on paper but with hidden dangers ? so tried a small allocation today . this would be a do it yourself version 20% UPRO...

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:05 pm Gold at 2000 that was short-lived

the higher rates on interest bearing stuff and bitcoin getting a lot of attention are strong head winds

morningstar is in nominal returns always and that fund did awful no matter how you want to try to manipulate it.

it failed to even match a money market

cherry picking dates can make any point one wants .

last time i looked you would be hard pressed to find time frames where equites and bonds beat equities and gold the last two decades

it went from up 40 bucks an ounce when i looked last night to down 80 from that point today

morningstar shows a ytd of just 1.80% ..a money market did better..it didn’t even keep up with inflation

high borrowing costs and rising wages represent headwinds which may persist even after inflation comes down .

Unlike larger firms, smaller companies are not benefiting that much from rising productivity.

SLYV has returned about 1% ytd vs over 20% for the s&p and 19% for the total market funds