Search found 4243 matches

by mathjak107
Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 75% stocks and 25% gold
Replies: 6
Views: 80

Re: 75% stocks and 25% goldo

If we eliminate the worst dates where 4% failed which pretty much if you run from 1970 on that would , then a withdrawal rate for 60/40 would be about 6.50% .so not very stressed as far as outcomes go . The worst retirement years to have retired are 1907 ,1929, 1937 , 1965 and 1966 so starting in 19...
by mathjak107
Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 217
Views: 13681

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

If it was just a 30 year retirement , mathematically it would take at least a 2% real return over the first 15 year of a 30 year retirement for 4% to hold . Of course the problem is if you live to year 31 you can have a buck left. We also don’t spend like robots ,so some years you may go over budget...
by mathjak107
Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 217
Views: 13681

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

We are retired and don’t use a fixed inflation adjusted draw .

We use bob clyatts 95/5 .

It uses actual balances .

Each year we get the higher of 4% of the actual balance or 5% less then we took the prior year if it is a down year .

Which ever is higher .

Firecalc has a tab for using 95/5
by mathjak107
Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 217
Views: 13681

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Feeling a bit dumb. This seemed like an obvious scenario many months ago. High inflation, the fed raising rates, Treasuries crashing - what else was going to happen? I was tempted to dump my Treasuries as soon as there was talk of raising rates to control inflation but I held firm and did not make ...
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

So I haven’t looked in a while but I see pp down 16.50% , wellesly down 13% and fidelity insight income model down 12.67
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 3:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I don’t use them …meh ,not a product I have interest in .
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

From January 2008 to dec 2008 the popular vti/bnd in 60/40 was down 19.44% according to portfolio visualizer
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Just being a couple says odds of one of us in the couple seeing 90 is almost 50%

Math for couples is very different since either can out live the other .

Remember 80% of all married men die married .

80% of all married women die alone
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The pay outs vary by enough to make them very different Single life spia 7344 a year Single life with the balance paid out if you didn’t get your money back which means only what is still owed to you from your own money is 6936 So you are paying over 400 a year for the small chance you will die in 1...
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The spias that pass to heirs are actually selling you one of the most expensive life insurance riders money can buy . To really benefit you want a single plan . Joint may be better served with a single annuity and single premium life insurance . In fact a good way of taking forever taxed ira money a...
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Spias don’t really pay interest until you go on their dime 15 years later . The irs implies an interest rate yearly for tax purposes. But you have zero return until you get that 100k back..you give them 100k and they hand it back to you over 15 years . Your first real return is 16 years or so down t...
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The period certain annuities are really not annuities at all ..they are like a cd from an insurer. An spia is no wheres near like a bond . There is no interest for 15-17 years since they are handing you back your own money before you see a dime of theirs . If you die it goes back in the pool . Nothi...
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

At 65 an spia is paying out about 7200 a year for 100k

It went from about 17 years to get your own money back to about 14-15 years
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Also the bulk of an spia payout comes from mortality credits , as those who die pay for those who live .

The effect of rates going up or down on them is not as great as you would think
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Annuities are best used as a piece of the bond budget , not to beat inflation …other assets long term do a better job
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2857

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

I’ve said it here a billion times. The ONLY thing that separates the PP from a traditional, passive portfolio is Gold. All others have some allocation to stocks, bonds and cash. Gold has proven once again its relationship to unexpected high inflation is putrid. PP followers hold Gold for this very ...
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:15 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: More Money != More Inflation
Replies: 12
Views: 796

Re: More Money != More Inflation

Except the 8% inflation is coming from things people need as part of their daily living . Raising Interest rates can’t produce the 5 million workers we are short or make car chips …. One third of the cpi increases are new and used car prices . There isn’t a lot of borrowing going on as corporations ...
by mathjak107
Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1435

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

I cant predict a thing
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1435

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

There have been many dr Frankenstein versions of the pp tried over the decades .

Oil , commodities,etc , all have been tried but all didn’t work out as as well as 4x4 .of course a 40 year bull market in bonds likely skewed results
by mathjak107
Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:21 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?
Replies: 49
Views: 1435

Re: Gold will rise when Fed stops raising interest rates?

the problem isnt gold not moving as much as the dollar is very strong . gold had a great run in india as an example . since 2019 in india gold did very well . up 62% gold prices went from around Rs 32,000 per 10 g to nearly Rs 52,000 during the same period, a nearly 62% return. we saw in dollars abo...
by mathjak107
Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:00 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Private real estate funds
Replies: 8
Views: 300

Re: Private real estate funds

I would stay away .it is to hard to know good from bad . Decades ago apple reits were hot and sold by David Lerner . They were very un transparent …. They paid a 6% dividend. And did so using borrowed money and the money that was supposed to be used to buy other properties. After numerous law suits ...
by mathjak107
Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 217
Views: 13681

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The chart was quite clear and showed exacly what it was supposed to . But as usual you are back to ball breaking because YOU SAY YOU UNDERSTAND MY TERMS . TO THAT I SAY BULLSHIT . case closed .. I thought we coold be civil to each other but no way … I am done ever replying to anything you ask or pos...
by mathjak107
Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 217
Views: 13681

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

I said bonds went up in value , that is not yield …they went up in value which means the total returns are on the right side for that year. I bet everyone here understood what that meant Well except you. My post made the point that you can’t easily predict what bonds are going to do . You are just p...
by mathjak107
Sun Sep 04, 2022 12:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 217
Views: 13681

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

That chart are the years the fed raised more then 1% in a year and only once the last 40 years until now Did bond total returns on 10 years or longer return negative returns that year . So if one was predicting bond returns by fed inceases you would have been quite wrong most of those years. That is...