many people here were fearing equities falling 50% . it turns out bonds were the riskiest bet of all. but i have said that for a long time now , that rising rates were kryptonite to the pp. equities can do well in rising rates if the economy stays healthy , but bond rates can’t hold up very long , e...

the problem with foreign stocks is you need to be right twice .

once about equities and even if you got that right you need to be right about the dollar .

i rather bet on american stocks and gold if i have to be right twice

I wouldn’t go by other countries
I live in America and Any foreign investing I do is thru American companies

We can also say a Japanese investor would have done very well investing in America

nope . 100 years was enough time time for me to go no other way but 100% equities in my accumulation years.. it always made little sense to me to mitigate short term dips as a long term investor with other less capable assets ,permanently hurting my longterm returns . retirement is something else …i...

but risk did show up . we have had crashes including losing 24% in one day , wars , the collapse of the savings and loans , the great recession, covid shutting the world down , the collapse of the dot coms , recessions , etc. those returns were with all the risk showing up. if it wasn’t for that fa...

but risk did show up . we have had crashes including losing 24% in one day , wars , the collapse of the savings and loans , the great recession, covid shutting the world down , the collapse of the dot coms , recessions , etc. those returns were with all the risk showing up. if it wasn’t for that fac...

the swings at times with the pp have been higher at times when 3 of the 4 assets are moving together , has been greater then most conventional portfolio moves . i can’t say stomach for swings is any less with the pp. in fact pp users tend to be more conservative and have lower pucker factor to start...

when we look at gold priced in other currencies it did pretty well against some of them . in india as an example Gold Returns The return from gold from 20 years has been 12%, whereas, in 15 and 10 years, it has been 10.3% and 7.5% respectively. Interestingly, in one year, Gold has outperformed all a...

gold is the dollars competitor .

as long as the dollar is strong a crises is going to see the dollar win over gold as the place to be

actually over most time frames equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for more than 2 decades …if anything i wouldn’t single gold out for spending .

kind of crazy that bonds which pays interest have not kept up with equities and gold as far as a balanced portfolio goes

kitces did a nice article on how the year you were born effects your outcome

https://www.kitces.com/blog/birth-year- ... l-returns/

independent cycles are pretty irrelevant. they are as close to showing not much difference as monte carlo testing does . monte carlo testing can find a slight worse case outcome sometimes but not much more the fact is every time frame is based on what happened in the time frame before it . historica...

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date .

67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with .

this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw

base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall

if it don’t sound right it usually aint. ha ha

you are correct .tips are not returning 4%. this whole premise is flawed. when i inquired in april about how tip returns are calculated because of the high yields posted , jack bowers from fidelity insight wrote me back Matt, When the SEC implemented a bunch of rules for reporting yield-to-maturity ...

the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very ha...

TLT AT 105.75 as an average cost, down a little but considering it fell from 165 not down much.

long term holders got crushed

it just made sense to me that with rates having no where to go except up it was going to be an awful ride extending out maturity and durations . the only hope we had was really equities running with the ball and i always said that long term bonds would destroy most of the traction equities got well...

it just made sense to me that with rates having no where to go except up it was going to be an awful ride extending out maturity and durations . the only hope we had was really equities running with the ball and i always said that long term bonds would destroy most of the traction equities got well ...

Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference. :D O0 One of the finest episodes. that episode won many awards …not only was it really something that could have been easily censored in those days but it never used the actual word once for what they were betting on … wikipedia ...

when i try it , it says item not found

relatively new article from june 7th

https://pictureperfectportfolios.com/ra ... portfolio/