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by mathjak107
Thu Jul 10, 2025 3:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈
Replies: 4
Views: 106

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio: Has Each Scenario Really Happened 25% of the Time? 🤔📉📈

pretty much that the pp flaw is it bets equal amounts of dollars on anything but equal amounts of risk playing out . deflation being the last likely and prosperity being the most likely markets are up 2/3’s of the time typically. for more than the last two decades we have had gold beating bonds … eq...
by mathjak107
Wed Jul 09, 2025 2:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 3134

Re: Liability-Matching Portfolio?

after a decade drawing down our balance is higher than ever . we now have ten years left to feed . so we really don’t watch spending anymore . but we do gauge ourselves with 95/5 each year . we seem to average the same draw range year after year despite our spending which includes a lot of eating ou...
by mathjak107
Tue Jul 08, 2025 1:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: interesting video on the pp and harry
Replies: 1
Views: 105

interesting video on the pp and harry

https://www.nbfwm.ca/advisor/the-filipi ... roach.html

scroll down a bit for the video .

it says the basis for the pp goes back hundreds of years , never heard of this guy from the 1500’s
by mathjak107
Mon Jul 07, 2025 1:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 1466

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

dick in ga is bAck

take a hike , no one wants your nasty responses

talk about a babbling idiot who interrupts discussions with his stupid comments
by mathjak107
Fri Jul 04, 2025 12:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 1466

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

frugal , i do depend on those withdrawals to live so i dont follow your question . if you are concerned about the 5% drops in down markets. , they are irrelevant since your draw is so much higher than it would have been if you used the standard constant dollar method which is the conventional 4% swr...
by mathjak107
Fri Jul 04, 2025 5:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 1466

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

the problem with the old 4% swr as it stands. is it does not self adjust . meaning that 90% of the already 125 rolling 30 year periods we have had , you ended 30 years with more than you started with using 50/50 to 60/40 so without a system of raises in place besides inflation adjusting , to much mo...
by mathjak107
Thu Jul 03, 2025 1:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
Replies: 14
Views: 1466

Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰

it’s no different than any other portfolio . we have been using bob clyatts 95/5 method of withdrawal for a decade now . we look at the balance each dec 31 . we get to set as spending goal posts the higher of 4% of the balance or in a down year , 4% of the balance or 5% less then we were taking . wh...
by mathjak107
Thu Jul 03, 2025 1:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 5876

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

if inflation over 30 years ate up half your purchasing power , then getting back your 1k in an individual bond and it buys 500 dollars worth of stuff, that is a loss no matter how you look at it . the fund does not have a fixed rate like the bond so your interest rate will change . over time if rate...
by mathjak107
Mon Jun 30, 2025 3:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 5876

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

the pp was designed for a much longer maturity tlt has an effective maturity of 25.67 years harry specifically says on page 354 of why the best laid plans go wrong , maturity needs to be at least 25 years to qualify. page 355 says anytime the maturity of the 30 year bond falls to 25 years , you need...
by mathjak107
Sun Jun 29, 2025 1:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 5876

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

back in the old day harry used to recommend the benham capital target date funds . they were bond funds with fixed maturity dates . but every five years you had to sell them and buy longer dated ones , so even they , having fixed maturity dates and were identical to holding individual bonds you stil...
by mathjak107
Sun Jun 29, 2025 9:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 5876

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

actually not quite the case . in order to maintain the power of the long bonds they do not get held to maturity . you pretty much have to sell them off every 5 years and replace them with the longest maturity. so when it comes to holding a constant duration like you would for a portfolio that counts...
by mathjak107
Sat Jun 28, 2025 1:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 3134

Re: Liability-Matching Portfolio?

we use bob clyatts 95/5 dynamic method of withdrawal. we have been retired 10 years and find it as simple as can be . we simply set our goalposts at 4% of the actually balance each year on dec31 . in the event of a down year like 2022 you take the higher of : 4% of the balance or 5% less then you to...
by mathjak107
Wed Jun 25, 2025 6:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 10173

Re: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio

interesting it doesn’t have the big 2022 drop yet from what i see
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

except for long bonds to do their thing when everything else is falling apart depends very heavily on why things are falling apart .

we saw devastation in every asset clsss in 2022 and long bonds had tlt falling minus 32%.

so they are kind of a fair weather friend
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 12:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

my feeling is never . the fed is so committed to not having a deflation or depression that i fail to see the reason anymore . they do more harm then good for the last two decades as gold and equities did a far better job than bonds and equities . as of friday i own no bonds and increased gold to 10%...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

yeah , the last few years saw devastating damage to long term bonds . i remember someone here posting how i called long term bonds wrong and i was eating my words a few years ago when tlt hit i think 165 . well i dont remember who it was but i hope they enjoyed the 50% drop . it was so obvious playi...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

the govt does not control bond rates , investors do . as we saw in april when the world pulled back from our auction and banks were on the verge of getting a margin call if trump didn’t reverse his tariffs , it’s investors that determine rates . that is why we get the inverted yield curve and invest...
by mathjak107
Wed Jun 18, 2025 10:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

damn , typed a reply to frugal and accidentally hit report instead of send frugal i always loved harry and his books since the 1980’s . but in my accumulation stage he was way to conservative for me . i wanted pedal to the metal growth. i tried the pp in retirement but it wasn’t a good choice at tha...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 17, 2025 5:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

when you go back thru time frames the last two decades it’s like equities and gold beat equities and bonds over most time frames . i am retired and really have no use for bonds at this stage . i keep a minimal amount but i can’t really say why . call me old school . equities gold and cash instrument...
by mathjak107
Mon Jun 16, 2025 10:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
Replies: 33
Views: 5462

Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀

i can’t see the long term bonds anymore but i can see something like 40% equities 20% gold 20% cash instruments 20% laddered 5 year bonds both regular and inflation protected , maybe a mix of iei and ief or something like LDDR the 10 year bonds etf that is actually laddered bonds out to 10 years
by mathjak107
Sat Jun 07, 2025 2:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: HB Permanent Portfolio: Now at 30/30/30/10 – What are the Risks? 🤔
Replies: 3
Views: 1611

Re: HB Permanent Portfolio: Now at 30/30/30/10 – What are the Risks? 🤔

one negative is you took away the barbel that cash and long term bonds form that cut the duration on the long term treasuries down quite a bit . in the pp the cash position actually works like a stock option , allowing you to buy more stocks at lower prices but with no expiration date . if i was goi...
by mathjak107
Wed May 28, 2025 11:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: As far as financial advisors go, I like these people
Replies: 4
Views: 2290

Re: As far as financial advisors go, I like these people

they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion .

it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out