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by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

I envy you .

Every time I try to do that I end up looking in a day or two ..I hate it but it has been this way for 33 years
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

a It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios?...
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity. Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel You yourself has said that NOTHING is doing well at the moment. So maybe this is the Achilles heel of all investment portfolios? I...
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Until 2 pm Friday .

No idea , perhaps a long time ….no one knows.

Rising rates stink for all segments of the portfolio and can hit 3 out of 4 parts pretty hard ..
Only cash or short term bonds won’t get hit as hard.

It can be a white knuckle ride for some followers
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

It is a bet on lower inflation and rates not necessarily low prosperity… all assets can move up in prosperity.

Rising rates and moderate inflation are its Achilles heel
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

I would think most here do look daily ..it is simply because they have an interest in it enough to be here .


They are also using the pp because they are gun shy so I would think they look.

People in forums tend to be active
by mathjak107
Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Just to echo what I believe Mathkak said, I moved to a PP in order to protect the wealth already created as I hopefully glide towards retirement. I would probably not choose this earlier in life. In fact I’m trying to decide the investing strategy for my kids. Is it better to limit losses with a go...
by mathjak107
Mon Jan 17, 2022 2:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp
Replies: 6
Views: 266

Re: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp

The proverbial safe withdrawal rate at 4% is already based on sequences that are so bad we have seen nothing like them over a retirement period since those who retired in 1966. It takes a 2% real return over the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement to hold mathematically. The same odds as ending w...
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp
Replies: 6
Views: 266

Re: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp

The balance left is a big factor too not just the draw ….that is what carry’s you through the unexpected spending that can blow a budget . It is also what your heirs get . So meeting a draw is one thing , balanced left is another 4% is alReady very conservative .. a 3% draw to me is very inefficient...
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Kitces looked into rebalancing . Assuming a 50/50 with an average of 10% a year on equities and bonds averaging 5% , over 30 years the 50/50 would become 80/20 just letting assets drift https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-rebalancing-usually-reduces-long-term-returns-but-is-good-risk-management-anyway/
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

I’m confused here. What is your exact allocation (percentages) , when did you get in to the PP, how many times have you rebalanced, how many times have you added more money into the PP. Also gold is up fifty percent in three years. IMHO: If your young and have a long runway of earnings you should c...
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Yes , I was responding to your comment .

We are going into the seventh year of retirement but never had to touch our ira accounts
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Perhaps this will shed some light on my predicament. Would you still invest in the PP if your timeframe was 8-10 years? If not, how would you adjust the allocation if your horizon was this short? I ask because my PP-like portfolio is earmarked to bridge the gap between now and full retirement age w...
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp
Replies: 6
Views: 266

Re: Mark hulbert mentioned the pp

I have all the shelter I want unless we show signs of sliding backwards from non transitory inflation and towards recession.

I won’t fight fed policy with inflation so much higher then bond rates currently are
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Not rebalancing things like gold has to hurt …gold spikes and then when the smoke clears it rolls back . Odds are if you don’t harvest the spike it goes away. Gold can start a year , spike , roll back and by years end go no where or be down. You would need a long bull market in equities for not reba...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

The environment is actually not prime for gold .. As long as other assets produce why should gold be bid up ?. As long as other assets are not doing terrible , especially stocks , there is no reason for gold to run with the ball . It takes not inflation but inflation levels the markets dont like for...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Well whether it’s a 40 year bull in bonds or not can make a big difference…. Years of high inflation would likely have shaped a different portfolio in today’s environment… The reality is there is no one portfolio that is trueLy permanent if a trend ends up being long term and it bets against it. The...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Yes for now I am a head with lower volatility and rate risk but not enough to say the pp sucks in this environment It is less then a half point difference I am better weighted for inflation and rates rising The pp is better weighted for recession Or slow down Maybe blend the two models Which is kind...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

like i said , my core portfolio is nothing like the pp yet results so far are pretty close i show the core i use as 26.40% equities 17.7% high yield bonds 16.70 total bond 39.2 very short term treasuries so that is very different than the pp yet returns are pretty close . volatility is lower as well...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

buddtholomew wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:16 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:12 am
sure .

tlt minus 4.11
vti minus 2.66
gld minus .75
shy minus .43

morningstar
GLD is +.75 so with those returns YTD PP is -1.62%...not too bad.

morningstar shows gld at minus .75 see below

Total Return % (Price) -0.75
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

Thanks MJ, I don’t see how the PP is only down 1% when SPY is -2.74 YTD and LTT’s -4% or so depending on site. Can you share the actual returns for each asset? My 43/12/0/45 is -1.12% YTD but I didn’t give up 25% in equity returns last year. you need to compare like portfolios .... pp was up about ...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 104
Views: 2980

Re: Yay PP!

sure .

tlt minus 4.11
vti minus 2.66
gld minus .75
shy minus .43

morningstar