frugal , i do depend on those withdrawals to live so i dont follow your question . if you are concerned about the 5% drops in down markets. , they are irrelevant since your draw is so much higher than it would have been if you used the standard constant dollar method which is the conventional 4% swr...

the problem with the old 4% swr as it stands. is it does not self adjust . meaning that 90% of the already 125 rolling 30 year periods we have had , you ended 30 years with more than you started with using 50/50 to 60/40 so without a system of raises in place besides inflation adjusting , to much mo...

it’s no different than any other portfolio . we have been using bob clyatts 95/5 method of withdrawal for a decade now . we look at the balance each dec 31 . we get to set as spending goal posts the higher of 4% of the balance or in a down year , 4% of the balance or 5% less then we were taking . wh...

if inflation over 30 years ate up half your purchasing power , then getting back your 1k in an individual bond and it buys 500 dollars worth of stuff, that is a loss no matter how you look at it . the fund does not have a fixed rate like the bond so your interest rate will change . over time if rate...

the pp was designed for a much longer maturity tlt has an effective maturity of 25.67 years harry specifically says on page 354 of why the best laid plans go wrong , maturity needs to be at least 25 years to qualify. page 355 says anytime the maturity of the 30 year bond falls to 25 years , you need...

back in the old day harry used to recommend the benham capital target date funds . they were bond funds with fixed maturity dates . but every five years you had to sell them and buy longer dated ones , so even they , having fixed maturity dates and were identical to holding individual bonds you stil...

actually not quite the case . in order to maintain the power of the long bonds they do not get held to maturity . you pretty much have to sell them off every 5 years and replace them with the longest maturity. so when it comes to holding a constant duration like you would for a portfolio that counts...

we use bob clyatts 95/5 dynamic method of withdrawal. we have been retired 10 years and find it as simple as can be . we simply set our goalposts at 4% of the actually balance each year on dec31 . in the event of a down year like 2022 you take the higher of : 4% of the balance or 5% less then you to...

interesting it doesn’t have the big 2022 drop yet from what i see

except for long bonds to do their thing when everything else is falling apart depends very heavily on why things are falling apart .

we saw devastation in every asset clsss in 2022 and long bonds had tlt falling minus 32%.

so they are kind of a fair weather friend

my feeling is never . the fed is so committed to not having a deflation or depression that i fail to see the reason anymore . they do more harm then good for the last two decades as gold and equities did a far better job than bonds and equities . as of friday i own no bonds and increased gold to 10%...

yeah , the last few years saw devastating damage to long term bonds . i remember someone here posting how i called long term bonds wrong and i was eating my words a few years ago when tlt hit i think 165 . well i dont remember who it was but i hope they enjoyed the 50% drop . it was so obvious playi...

the govt does not control bond rates , investors do . as we saw in april when the world pulled back from our auction and banks were on the verge of getting a margin call if trump didn’t reverse his tariffs , it’s investors that determine rates . that is why we get the inverted yield curve and invest...

damn , typed a reply to frugal and accidentally hit report instead of send frugal i always loved harry and his books since the 1980’s . but in my accumulation stage he was way to conservative for me . i wanted pedal to the metal growth. i tried the pp in retirement but it wasn’t a good choice at tha...

when you go back thru time frames the last two decades it’s like equities and gold beat equities and bonds over most time frames . i am retired and really have no use for bonds at this stage . i keep a minimal amount but i can’t really say why . call me old school . equities gold and cash instrument...

we don’t even buy green bananas anymore

i can’t see the long term bonds anymore but i can see something like 40% equities 20% gold 20% cash instruments 20% laddered 5 year bonds both regular and inflation protected , maybe a mix of iei and ief or something like LDDR the 10 year bonds etf that is actually laddered bonds out to 10 years

one negative is you took away the barbel that cash and long term bonds form that cut the duration on the long term treasuries down quite a bit . in the pp the cash position actually works like a stock option , allowing you to buy more stocks at lower prices but with no expiration date . if i was goi...

kind of reminds me of all those going in to ark funds after the rise already happened

they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion .

it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out

meh , the reality is no one can not only miss the worst days but they can’t even miss the worst broader time frames . if any of these timing models and proprietary trading systems actually worked , they wouldn’t be telling you, and they would have beaten buffet’s record . so the best we can do is no...

I think I posted in Fall 2022 on one of these threads that it would be a great time to enter the PP, on a severe drawdown (worst of all time, it turns out). Looks like I was right. Since then, HBPP beats 60/40, which it usually doesn't do in a bull market. We're still in a bull market in stocks sin...

once in a while i will use tlt for a quick trade i don’t trust long bonds as a hold at these rates nor as protection there are to many reliable ways to get downside protection today thru alternative investments. i use fidelity conservative bond , fidelity short term bond , fidelity intermediate term...

in my opinion it goes out longer than i would risk today . no reason to really go out longer than 3.5 years or so with pending stag flation or higher inflation with these tariffs, even if reduced fbnd won’t provide much more income and it takes on more interest rate risk . this is why i am staying w...

the markets barely reacted to it .

even the long treasuries had their normal DOWN day .