Search found 4156 matches

by mathjak107
Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

A better week , in fact the first up week in 12 weeks for equities

Pp minus 11.56%


Insight income model , minus 9.98


Wellesley minus 9.79
by mathjak107
Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 261

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

He is always a bit to pro annuity for my taste .

His studies are interesting but they always seem to have an annuity slant to them..so as long as one is aware he has a vested interest he isn’t a bad source for data
by mathjak107
Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 261

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

Pfau is principal and director of McLean asset mgmt …,he has a big vested interest in selling annuity products
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 261

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

Always keep in mind pfau is an annuity salesman first and a researcher second .

He is big on annuities in all his studies
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses…. So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime . Yup. Now we’re getting somewhere. I’...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses…. So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime . So all our portfolios have dropped as...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

In fairness, I do not post here often anymore and have only read a fraction of mathjak's posts. Maybe I am wrong and he kicks puppies and purposely farts in the produce section, I can testify regarding the following I have learned about him from reading just about all he has written here: 1) He is ...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Forget the late 1970s and early 1980s .

Gold was a different animal back then . It also was exposed to once in a life time events…

Talk about driving and looking in the rear view mirror .

Any comparison to gold back then in those days would likely have little relevance today
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Up to now down 5% over a year is about the max that was touted .

So far it is down more than 2x that half way through a year so I would venture to say many are not happy being down more than 2x that going in to the second half of the year
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Sorry if facts and truth hurt.. keep me blocked
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

And again , when and if things change the. Pp will be credited with doing what its concept is bought on . Few portfolios are billed as a “safe “ portfolio in all conditions so buyers are willing to buy in to that concept . Kind of like vanguards premise that fees and indexing are the keys to investo...
by mathjak107
Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Well if you found your insurance you bought denied your claims because the cancer you had didn’t fit their guidelines you would feel quite different about what you over paid for . If there were cheaper policies that paid off better and demonstrated better coverage over the time frame you held that i...
by mathjak107
Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I am not saying it is a good portfolio or a bad one so it isn’t trolling . The pp is what it is and does what it does and all that matters is what it’s results are over the time frames that mean the most to us . That is usually when we have maximum dollars invested in it The last 10 years it has lag...
by mathjak107
Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

The 10 year CAGR is a good addition, gives more context. I appreciate the weekly updates. It does kind of show you if you are paying to much in expenses so to speak . Paying for the insurance of the safety assets and coming in last in the bull and then lagging in the bear market you were buying tha...
by mathjak107
Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Just an awful week Pp down 12.88% ytd , cagr the last 10 years 4.30% Fidelity monitor income model down 11.31 , 4.71% the last 10 years Wellesly 11.67% 40% equities . 5.93% the last 10 years Ray dalio all weather is doing the worst , down 16.12.. 5.31% the last 10 years . Vti for comparison 12.38% t...
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:31 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 524

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

Because raises are built in and we have much more up years then down years , the draw is typically higher then it would be with the standard 4% swr .

Belt tightening would likely still leave you ahead of your draw had you used the more traditional method ….
by mathjak107
Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 65
Views: 10311

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

I disagree .. the strict definition is an over all increase in prices .

Shortages and supply and demand issues don’t have to be monetary .

All the adjusting of the money supply can’t make more auto chips or produce more oil in the Mid East
by mathjak107
Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 524

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

I have been using 95/5 for 7 years ..

It is easy as can be to implement….
by mathjak107
Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 171
Views: 7677

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

but the pp is still not that far from other comparable models . like i said it my be disappointing since the pp battle cry has been wait until stocks fall and when they did the pp wasnt helped by its safety assets compared to other conservative models . i havent tracked the dalio all weather in a w...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:59 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 485607

Re: Stock scream room

But had you had 60/40 or all stocks your balance over the years would have been way higher too.

So being down more maybe only part of the story
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 14, 2022 2:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 524

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

mj, Where can I read more about clyatt's approach? I have a hard time getting too passionate/opinionated about this particular subject...the more I read about it the more all of it seems fine tuned to backtests and/or based on quite a few assumptions. I'm leaning toward the RMD calculation because ...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 14, 2022 2:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 524

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

The rmd tables are the opposite of a safe withdrawal rate . The rmd table draw is all over the map based on returns . A big down year can leave you unable to pay bills . The idea of a safe withdrawal rate is to provide a safe , secure , CONSISTENT income , in good and bad times It also gives you a b...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1022

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

I used to live in the ghetto and had a similar experience. I represented myself (no prior legal training). The system said pay a little money and basically get a slap on the wrist. I said “What if I don’t pay?”. They said “we’ll toss you in jail”. I said “what kind of food do you serve and can I br...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 35
Views: 1022

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

in what way ? i will tell you my life lesson about choices . i grew up in a nyc housing project and hung out with a rough group . well one day the group decided to do something bad . well using our own senses a buddy and i opted out and didnt join the group . next thing that happened is my buddy was...
by mathjak107
Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 524

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

If one really wants to geek out on this stuff definitely head over to earlyretirementnow.com. Right now 4% is pretty dicey One year does not determine dicey or not.. You're right, but that wasn't what I was refereeing to. CAPE ratio however, is a statistically significant predictive measure and 4% ...