Search found 4456 matches

by mathjak107
Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 10827

Re: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio

.. I made my only investments now 21 years ago in January 2003. All investments since have gone into cash. .. Seems like I would have been much better off over these last 21 years by having done the exact opposite. Having the bulk in Growth and giving away the Value funds. Opposite: I thought you w...
by mathjak107
Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:31 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: SP500 ETF SPLG now .02 % ER
Replies: 5
Views: 11579

Re: SP500 ETF SPLG now .02 % ER

the zero fee fidelity funds are not the same benchmark as an s&p fund or total market fund . they created their own index to avoid paying licensing fees , which while close in performance isn’t exactly the same as the index holds. not that is a good or bad thing but it is just different that came in...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 13, 2024 7:49 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: SP500 ETF SPLG now .02 % ER
Replies: 5
Views: 11579

Re: SP500 ETF SPLG now .02 % ER

voo actually had a better return in 2023 than splg despite a slightly higher fee. both are s&p 500 funds. 26.32 for voo , 26.24 for the lower cost splg. as i always say lower expenses don’t always mean much since so many other factors are involved . i have been experimenting with a leveraged risk pa...
by mathjak107
Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 37
Views: 35334

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

i run 3 core portfolios . one for short term spending which is 25% equities and 75% assorted fixed income another for the intermediate term which is 55-60% equities and a growth and income model and finally a 100% equity model consisting of berkshire and vti plus 2 years of cash , one of which we sp...
by mathjak107
Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:45 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
Replies: 6
Views: 11417

Re: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend

the boogey man to the tips idea is taxes also it leaves little cushion for the unexpected larger expenses in life with so little in equities , because our personal cost of living does not mimic the cpi . i think this would be one of the rare instances one would really want to look in to a deferred ...
by mathjak107
Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:11 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Leverages ETN strategies
Replies: 5
Views: 7572

Re: Leverages ETN strategies

doing the first monthly rebalancing on the carolina reaper leveraged portfolio.. the managed futures fund dbmf is flat , have to add a bit to tyd and upro the 3x funds . i find its best to rebalance these highly leveraged funds once a month .. its easiest to add a little bit of money instead of sell...
by mathjak107
Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 70837

Re: 2023 Returns

i like the combo because berkshire tempers the volatility of vti . as i posted in the variable portfolio thread , i threw about 50k in to a leveraged risk parity portfolio as an experiment..considering it uses 3x leveraged equities and bonds with managed futures it has been pretty docile so far. its...
by mathjak107
Sat Dec 30, 2023 5:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 70837

Re: 2023 Returns

for 2023 the final numbers for the models i use just posted the fidelity insight conservative income model , which is 75% less volatile than the s&p , up just under 10%. we typically keep about 5 -6 years of spending in this model along with 2 years of cash instruments . the insight growth and incom...
by mathjak107
Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Leverages ETN strategies
Replies: 5
Views: 7572

Re: Leverages ETN strategies

i just went as far back with these funds as i could in portfolio visualizer. first time running it myself . i was able to go back to jan 2020 , so almost 4 years a 60/40 consisting of 60% voo (s&p fund )and 40% bnd ( total bond fund ) took 100k and turned it in to 126,130 , a cagr of 6.11% the 60/40...
by mathjak107
Thu Dec 14, 2023 3:44 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Leverages ETN strategies
Replies: 5
Views: 7572

Re: Leverages ETN strategies

we have had some interesting conversation on using leveraged portfolios to reduces risk and increase gains .. and noooo this isn’t about using margin or mortgage money .. borrowing money and just buying more of a 60/40 only buys a bigger 60/40 . but it is still a 60/40 with all the draw down and gai...
by mathjak107
Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:03 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Leverages ETN strategies
Replies: 5
Views: 7572

Re: Leverages ETN strategies

supposedly a leveraged 60/40 can deliver the performance of 90-100% equities but with less risk . but is it true in practice or is it another situation of looking good in theory and on paper but with hidden dangers ? so tried a small allocation today . this would be a do it yourself version 20% UPRO...
by mathjak107
Fri Dec 08, 2023 4:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 27
Views: 40615

Re: Why the big move in gold?

ochotona wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:05 pm
Gold at 2000 that was short-lived
the higher rates on interest bearing stuff and bitcoin getting a lot of attention are strong head winds
by mathjak107
Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:10 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating
Replies: 4
Views: 4794

Re: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating

morningstar is in nominal returns always and that fund did awful no matter how you want to try to manipulate it.

it failed to even match a money market
by mathjak107
Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 27
Views: 40615

Re: Why the big move in gold?

cherry picking dates can make any point one wants .

last time i looked you would be hard pressed to find time frames where equites and bonds beat equities and gold the last two decades
by mathjak107
Mon Dec 04, 2023 1:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 27
Views: 40615

Re: Why the big move in gold?

it went from up 40 bucks an ounce when i looked last night to down 80 from that point today
by mathjak107
Mon Dec 04, 2023 4:30 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating
Replies: 4
Views: 4794

Re: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating

morningstar shows a ytd of just 1.80% ..a money market did better..it didn’t even keep up with inflation
by mathjak107
Sat Nov 25, 2023 5:41 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 20937

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

high borrowing costs and rising wages represent headwinds which may persist even after inflation comes down .

Unlike larger firms, smaller companies are not benefiting that much from rising productivity.

SLYV has returned about 1% ytd vs over 20% for the s&p and 19% for the total market funds
by mathjak107
Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:43 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 50869

Re: TLT cracks $90

best of luck with your long term bonds ….conversation is done. why would i think you can have a conversation without insults …

still a dick in ga
by mathjak107
Sat Nov 11, 2023 4:28 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 50869

Re: TLT cracks $90

from a historical standpoint rates are in a normal range …. it is very unlikely long term rates will fall much unless we hit a recession , which seems farther and farther off on the horizon. so far tlt has taken a horrible beat down with not much of a recovery looking up in the nearer term . the cyc...
by mathjak107
Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 50869

Re: TLT cr

agree with jim 100% …rates are not high , they are pretty much historically normal . odds are we are going to see the yield curve normalize out with long term rates going higher and shorter rates going lower normalizing the curve where longer term rates are higher then short term rates . i have been...
by mathjak107
Fri Oct 27, 2023 3:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 50869

Re: TLT cracks $90

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics/tlt-and-20-year-treasury-yield-gamble?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1019%20-%20State%20Street%20Loses%201B%20in%20ETF%20Assets%20in%203Q&utm_content=1019%20-%20State%20Street%20Loses%201B%20in%20ETF%20Assets%20in%203Q+CID_ae2cdf4ff06c2b47b7ec935526aeb62a&utm_...
by mathjak107
Thu Oct 19, 2023 6:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx
Replies: 3
Views: 7481

Re: prpfx

yes , the fund has diverted from its original concept which was not based on BBB. That is the most dangerous segment of the bond market .. with 70% of non govt bonds in it , it is the last rung of investment grade . one slip in rating and every institution, insurance company , fund , that is limited...
by mathjak107
Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: prpfx
Replies: 3
Views: 7481

prpfx

looking back over time , i find i had to go back to 2011 to find a time frame that the basic 4x4 beat PRPFX

i would have thought the expenses alone would have made that a rare occurrence but every year i threw in portfolio visualizer after 2011 to present had the 4x4 behind
by mathjak107
Tue Oct 17, 2023 4:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 16061

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

i gave up trying to deal with buying bonds like that at fidelity …it was a waste of time trying to beat the clock and after trade after trade was killed i said forget it
by mathjak107
Mon Oct 16, 2023 4:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 86165

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

gold is a competitor to the dollar ..at 3.46% the last 10 years it out performed cash instruments