Search found 4660 matches
- Wed Jul 09, 2025 2:33 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 2967
Re: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
after a decade drawing down our balance is higher than ever . we now have ten years left to feed . so we really don’t watch spending anymore . but we do gauge ourselves with 95/5 each year . we seem to average the same draw range year after year despite our spending which includes a lot of eating ou...
- Tue Jul 08, 2025 1:36 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: interesting video on the pp and harry
- Replies: 1
- Views: 80
interesting video on the pp and harry
https://www.nbfwm.ca/advisor/the-filipi ... roach.html
scroll down a bit for the video .
it says the basis for the pp goes back hundreds of years , never heard of this guy from the 1500’s
scroll down a bit for the video .
it says the basis for the pp goes back hundreds of years , never heard of this guy from the 1500’s
- Mon Jul 07, 2025 1:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
- Replies: 14
- Views: 887
Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
dick in ga is bAck
take a hike , no one wants your nasty responses
talk about a babbling idiot who interrupts discussions with his stupid comments
take a hike , no one wants your nasty responses
talk about a babbling idiot who interrupts discussions with his stupid comments
- Sat Jul 05, 2025 2:02 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
- Replies: 14
- Views: 887
Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
this is what i use and posted on above
- Fri Jul 04, 2025 12:15 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
- Replies: 14
- Views: 887
Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
frugal , i do depend on those withdrawals to live so i dont follow your question . if you are concerned about the 5% drops in down markets. , they are irrelevant since your draw is so much higher than it would have been if you used the standard constant dollar method which is the conventional 4% swr...
- Fri Jul 04, 2025 5:38 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
- Replies: 14
- Views: 887
Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
the problem with the old 4% swr as it stands. is it does not self adjust . meaning that 90% of the already 125 rolling 30 year periods we have had , you ended 30 years with more than you started with using 50/50 to 60/40 so without a system of raises in place besides inflation adjusting , to much mo...
- Thu Jul 03, 2025 1:50 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
- Replies: 14
- Views: 887
Re: 🧭 When and how do you start withdrawing from a Permanent Portfolio? 💰
it’s no different than any other portfolio . we have been using bob clyatts 95/5 method of withdrawal for a decade now . we look at the balance each dec 31 . we get to set as spending goal posts the higher of 4% of the balance or in a down year , 4% of the balance or 5% less then we were taking . wh...
- Thu Jul 03, 2025 1:30 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4492
Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
if inflation over 30 years ate up half your purchasing power , then getting back your 1k in an individual bond and it buys 500 dollars worth of stuff, that is a loss no matter how you look at it . the fund does not have a fixed rate like the bond so your interest rate will change . over time if rate...
- Mon Jun 30, 2025 3:05 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4492
Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
the pp was designed for a much longer maturity tlt has an effective maturity of 25.67 years harry specifically says on page 354 of why the best laid plans go wrong , maturity needs to be at least 25 years to qualify. page 355 says anytime the maturity of the 30 year bond falls to 25 years , you need...
- Sun Jun 29, 2025 1:29 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4492
Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
back in the old day harry used to recommend the benham capital target date funds . they were bond funds with fixed maturity dates . but every five years you had to sell them and buy longer dated ones , so even they , having fixed maturity dates and were identical to holding individual bonds you stil...
- Sun Jun 29, 2025 9:01 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4492
Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
actually not quite the case . in order to maintain the power of the long bonds they do not get held to maturity . you pretty much have to sell them off every 5 years and replace them with the longest maturity. so when it comes to holding a constant duration like you would for a portfolio that counts...
- Sat Jun 28, 2025 1:47 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 2967
Re: Liability-Matching Portfolio?
we use bob clyatts 95/5 dynamic method of withdrawal. we have been retired 10 years and find it as simple as can be . we simply set our goalposts at 4% of the actually balance each year on dec31 . in the event of a down year like 2022 you take the higher of : 4% of the balance or 5% less then you to...
- Wed Jun 25, 2025 6:28 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 5
- Views: 9092
Re: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio
interesting it doesn’t have the big 2022 drop yet from what i see
- Thu Jun 19, 2025 4:40 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
except for long bonds to do their thing when everything else is falling apart depends very heavily on why things are falling apart .
we saw devastation in every asset clsss in 2022 and long bonds had tlt falling minus 32%.
so they are kind of a fair weather friend
we saw devastation in every asset clsss in 2022 and long bonds had tlt falling minus 32%.
so they are kind of a fair weather friend
- Thu Jun 19, 2025 12:29 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
my feeling is never . the fed is so committed to not having a deflation or depression that i fail to see the reason anymore . they do more harm then good for the last two decades as gold and equities did a far better job than bonds and equities . as of friday i own no bonds and increased gold to 10%...
- Thu Jun 19, 2025 7:07 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
yeah , the last few years saw devastating damage to long term bonds . i remember someone here posting how i called long term bonds wrong and i was eating my words a few years ago when tlt hit i think 165 . well i dont remember who it was but i hope they enjoyed the 50% drop . it was so obvious playi...
- Thu Jun 19, 2025 3:04 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
the govt does not control bond rates , investors do . as we saw in april when the world pulled back from our auction and banks were on the verge of getting a margin call if trump didn’t reverse his tariffs , it’s investors that determine rates . that is why we get the inverted yield curve and invest...
- Wed Jun 18, 2025 10:45 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
damn , typed a reply to frugal and accidentally hit report instead of send frugal i always loved harry and his books since the 1980’s . but in my accumulation stage he was way to conservative for me . i wanted pedal to the metal growth. i tried the pp in retirement but it wasn’t a good choice at tha...
- Tue Jun 17, 2025 5:22 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
when you go back thru time frames the last two decades it’s like equities and gold beat equities and bonds over most time frames . i am retired and really have no use for bonds at this stage . i keep a minimal amount but i can’t really say why . call me old school . equities gold and cash instrument...
- Tue Jun 17, 2025 1:34 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
we don’t even buy green bananas anymore
- Mon Jun 16, 2025 10:12 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
- Replies: 33
- Views: 5420
Re: Do 30-Year Bonds Still Belong in a Permanent Portfolio? 🙀
i can’t see the long term bonds anymore but i can see something like 40% equities 20% gold 20% cash instruments 20% laddered 5 year bonds both regular and inflation protected , maybe a mix of iei and ief or something like LDDR the 10 year bonds etf that is actually laddered bonds out to 10 years
- Sat Jun 07, 2025 2:49 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: HB Permanent Portfolio: Now at 30/30/30/10 – What are the Risks? 🤔
- Replies: 3
- Views: 1567
Re: HB Permanent Portfolio: Now at 30/30/30/10 – What are the Risks? 🤔
one negative is you took away the barbel that cash and long term bonds form that cut the duration on the long term treasuries down quite a bit . in the pp the cash position actually works like a stock option , allowing you to buy more stocks at lower prices but with no expiration date . if i was goi...
- Thu May 29, 2025 1:40 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
- Replies: 18
- Views: 10276
Re: ⌛ Too Late for Bitcoin? Or Just the Right Time? ⚡ Finally Taking the First Step into Bitcoin?
kind of reminds me of all those going in to ark funds after the rise already happened
- Wed May 28, 2025 11:13 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: As far as financial advisors go, I like these people
- Replies: 4
- Views: 2285
Re: As far as financial advisors go, I like these people
they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion .
it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out
it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out
- Mon May 26, 2025 12:34 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: As far as financial advisors go, I like these people
- Replies: 4
- Views: 2285
Re: As far as financial advisors go, I like these people
meh , the reality is no one can not only miss the worst days but they can’t even miss the worst broader time frames . if any of these timing models and proprietary trading systems actually worked , they wouldn’t be telling you, and they would have beaten buffet’s record . so the best we can do is no...