high borrowing costs and rising wages represent headwinds which may persist even after inflation comes down .

Unlike larger firms, smaller companies are not benefiting that much from rising productivity.

SLYV has returned about 1% ytd vs over 20% for the s&p and 19% for the total market funds

best of luck with your long term bonds ….conversation is done. why would i think you can have a conversation without insults …

still a dick in ga

from a historical standpoint rates are in a normal range …. it is very unlikely long term rates will fall much unless we hit a recession , which seems farther and farther off on the horizon. so far tlt has taken a horrible beat down with not much of a recovery looking up in the nearer term . the cyc...

agree with jim 100% …rates are not high , they are pretty much historically normal . odds are we are going to see the yield curve normalize out with long term rates going higher and shorter rates going lower normalizing the curve where longer term rates are higher then short term rates . i have been...

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics/tlt-and-20-year-treasury-yield-gamble?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1019%20-%20State%20Street%20Loses%201B%20in%20ETF%20Assets%20in%203Q&utm_content=1019%20-%20State%20Street%20Loses%201B%20in%20ETF%20Assets%20in%203Q+CID_ae2cdf4ff06c2b47b7ec935526aeb62a&utm_...

yes , the fund has diverted from its original concept which was not based on BBB. That is the most dangerous segment of the bond market .. with 70% of non govt bonds in it , it is the last rung of investment grade . one slip in rating and every institution, insurance company , fund , that is limited...

looking back over time , i find i had to go back to 2011 to find a time frame that the basic 4x4 beat PRPFX

i would have thought the expenses alone would have made that a rare occurrence but every year i threw in portfolio visualizer after 2011 to present had the 4x4 behind

i gave up trying to deal with buying bonds like that at fidelity …it was a waste of time trying to beat the clock and after trade after trade was killed i said forget it

gold is a competitor to the dollar ..at 3.46% the last 10 years it out performed cash instruments

yeah you'll get 4.65 total return back after 25 years its like holding a bond thats always 25 year duration Anybody heard from robert kessler? Seems like he'd be buying https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1EKb8dk0vg Just to clarify. You mean I will get 4.65 yield FOR 25 years not “after” 25 years, cor...

I think he retired and closed the firm

He did awful

what looks weird is tlt shows 100% AA since the downgrade , yet vglt shows 99 %. AAA

remember , tax loss harvesting kicks the tax can down the road it bumps up the cost basis on what you buy to replace what you sold so it may or may not be a good thing . i kicked the tax can down the road when we sold our commercial lease rights we held . i kicked it right into the capital gains bra...

many people here were fearing equities falling 50% . it turns out bonds were the riskiest bet of all. but i have said that for a long time now , that rising rates were kryptonite to the pp. equities can do well in rising rates if the economy stays healthy , but bond rates can’t hold up very long , e...

the problem with foreign stocks is you need to be right twice .

once about equities and even if you got that right you need to be right about the dollar .

i rather bet on american stocks and gold if i have to be right twice

I wouldn’t go by other countries
I live in America and Any foreign investing I do is thru American companies

We can also say a Japanese investor would have done very well investing in America

nope . 100 years was enough time time for me to go no other way but 100% equities in my accumulation years.. it always made little sense to me to mitigate short term dips as a long term investor with other less capable assets ,permanently hurting my longterm returns . retirement is something else …i...

but risk did show up . we have had crashes including losing 24% in one day , wars , the collapse of the savings and loans , the great recession, covid shutting the world down , the collapse of the dot coms , recessions , etc. those returns were with all the risk showing up. if it wasn’t for that fa...

but risk did show up . we have had crashes including losing 24% in one day , wars , the collapse of the savings and loans , the great recession, covid shutting the world down , the collapse of the dot coms , recessions , etc. those returns were with all the risk showing up. if it wasn’t for that fac...

the swings at times with the pp have been higher at times when 3 of the 4 assets are moving together , has been greater then most conventional portfolio moves . i can’t say stomach for swings is any less with the pp. in fact pp users tend to be more conservative and have lower pucker factor to start...

when we look at gold priced in other currencies it did pretty well against some of them . in india as an example Gold Returns The return from gold from 20 years has been 12%, whereas, in 15 and 10 years, it has been 10.3% and 7.5% respectively. Interestingly, in one year, Gold has outperformed all a...

gold is the dollars competitor .

as long as the dollar is strong a crises is going to see the dollar win over gold as the place to be

actually over most time frames equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for more than 2 decades …if anything i wouldn’t single gold out for spending .

kind of crazy that bonds which pays interest have not kept up with equities and gold as far as a balanced portfolio goes

kitces did a nice article on how the year you were born effects your outcome

https://www.kitces.com/blog/birth-year- ... l-returns/

independent cycles are pretty irrelevant. they are as close to showing not much difference as monte carlo testing does . monte carlo testing can find a slight worse case outcome sometimes but not much more the fact is every time frame is based on what happened in the time frame before it . historica...