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by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1261
Views: 81492

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund . my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money . MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income . so that is where your comparison is no...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 9:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1261
Views: 81492

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

the one year has tlt down about 14% despite the spike.despite rebalancing-some of it , down is down
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1261
Views: 81492

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund . my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money . MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income . so that is where your comparison is not...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 8:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1261
Views: 81492

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

You are making comments that are out in left field . As anyone here can tell you I have followed the fidelity insight portfolios for 30 years ….. Those were always my portfolios until I made the mistake in December of switching to the pp as the only portfolio. So you my friend need to learn facts be...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 8:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

If I was a stock bug I wouldn’t be 25-40% equities. But the fact is there is really only 4 points that can be discussed in the pp ….so yeah it is going to be the same arguments over and over We have high to hyper inflation and worthless currency We have the Japan deflation argument We have stocks ov...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 7:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read You've posted 3802 times. In every single convers...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 5:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 2:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Well you have to do what you see fit and we who think there are better ways going forward will do the same And yet you're still just going to spend hours on this forum grumbling and fussing about 'rising rates' and how you don't think the PP is going to work going forward. The biggest obstacle to f...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 2:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

It could be just the opposite..the smaller the portfolio the more important it can be to get things right and not have assets in it get sand bagged by betting heavily on low rates and lower inflation at what stands a good chance of being the turn of a cycle. The penalty for being wrong can be very s...
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Well you have to do what you see fit and we who think there are better ways going forward will do the same
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Because the high yield act more like stock , the short term bonds is worth doing because if rates don’t rise it is better than cash and if they do they will not get hit much . The only risk Is a 17% stake in total bond and that is way way way less than tlt. Little danger there of holding back equiti...
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

i hold intermediate like total bond , short term like shy and high yield like hyg and a mortgage bond fund . interest rate sensitivity is a fraction of the pp.

50% of the pp is very aggressive as far as rate sensitivity , tlt and gld .
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

It gave good results , but again 40 years of falling interest rates does not mean interest rate sensitive assets won’t be an issue if held in abundance….

Even intermediate terms bonds and 25% gold can be overly sensitive to rates and an outsized bet on them in my opinion for what it’s worth
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 5:57 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Sell In May?
Replies: 7
Views: 770

Re: Sell In May?

For the pp selling even Jan 2 would have produced better results.

Pp may be up about 2% ytd if that much

I show

Tlt down 13.45%

Gold down 4.05%

Vti up 9.24%

Shy flat
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 3:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Japan dropped the ball back in the 1980s which kicked this spiral off .Japan is an example of what not to do The main causes of this economic slowdown were raising interest rates that set a liquidity trap at the same time that a credit crunch was unfolding. The major lessons economies can take from ...
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 5:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

Unless one is passing these funds to heirs tax efficiency is really non existent..

You can pay me now or pay me an unknown amount down the road , but pay you will .

I deferred lots of taxes too over the yearsl.I deferred them from 15% right to 23.80% after the max capital gain rate was raised
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 5:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

We think You put to much stock in what happened in Japan or Europe the way you think we look at stocks and rates
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Zero coupon long term treasuries are down a whopping 23% over the last year and that is not from the august high either …
Zroc got pummeled .

That would be considered a crash in stocks if they did what zeros did , that is like a 30% drop from august
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 12:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Yeah but ITTs don't move like my zeros did when covid hit. As I have mentioned over and over the rebalance from long bonds to stocks during that event was huge. All these little moves are noise. Based on all the LTT doomsdaying here my guess is we will see a pop there within the next few months...j...
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

Regarding the Wellesley/Gold combo: historically (and admittedly it's a brief one since GLD debuted in 2004) the performance of this allocation and the GB have been extremely close: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2004&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&last...
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 11:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 95
Views: 1772

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

cash and tlt are down 6.75% ytd

ief is down 5.84'


ief and cash are down 2.92 using ief instead of tlt but still keeping cash
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 7:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

I like being In control so I don’t use Wellesley…but Wellesley has always been a fine conservative fund
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 4:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 75
Views: 4046

Re: Inflation

This is what happens when we go from pandemic mode and anemic inventories to opening up the flood gates and pent up demand. We are out in the hamptons and montauk now ..we took a little vacation . Every place has help wanted signs up …… gas is 4 bucks a gallon here ….. Restaurants here which normall...
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 4:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

At this stage 10-15% , no more than that for me and more likely I will hold at 10% Gold is hurt to much by potential rising rates …I don’t want another pp fiasco where rising rates hurts 75% of my portfolio and with the odds of rates going up I want to keep rate sensitivity low . If things change I ...
by mathjak107
Thu May 13, 2021 3:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-Inspired Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: PP-Inspired Portfolios

Wellesley and some gold , is a nice mix.

While I don’t use Wellesley my final model is close in allocation