Search found 3820 matches

by mathjak107
Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 50
Views: 3713

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

the problem with prenups is courts only uphold them until they dont .

have a now disabled or sick spouse who can no longer work at their job and that prenup is usually over turned by a court
by mathjak107
Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

Unless you never have a losing year and never get a change in inflation your thinking zero return can be adjusted for inflation and last 25 years is false.. It is a calculation that is really meaningless in the real world as sequence risk and inflation will make that untrue zero growth and 2% inflat...
by mathjak107
Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

Warren buffet was great in the 1980s and 1990s but he really lost his touch the last two decades as a simple s&p fund beat him not to mention will danoff blew Berkshire away without much added risk..my contra fund ran circles around Berkshire over the years
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

in the wrong sequence the best of returns will fail . drawing money out of our nest egg changes the results of even the biggest bull market returns . drawing out money is no different in flat or down markets to a trader having a string of loosing trades. the end result is the same. while the 17 year...
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

this is not true because the sequence of your gains and losses is the biggest factor when spending down .

just based on sequence there can be a 15 year difference in how long the money lasts with the same average return
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

all irrelevent since the math is the math as to what is needed for 4% swr to hold. that is a 2-1/2% real return min the first 15 years . it does not matter how you want to get to it ELI5. If US stocks return, say 1.4% real annually on average (CAGR) for the next 15 years and bonds return, say, 0.3%...
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

all irrelevent since the math is the math as to what is needed for 4% swr to hold.

that is a 2-1/2% real return min the first 15 years .

it does not matter how you want to get to it
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

i posted kitces numbers above

it took an average of 2.50% real returns the first 15 years in order to have 4% hold . you may have a buck left but it was considered successful
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

the issue with using 30 years is 30 year returns were good in the failed time frames . but the 15 year caused them to fail what caused the failures were real returns being poor the first 15 years because of inflation 30 year 1907 stocks returned 7.77% -- bonds 4.250-- rebalanced portfolio 7.02- - in...
by mathjak107
Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

It wasn’t returns that killed off those failing years , it was the sequences of those returns and real returns… safe withdrawal rates are based not on average returns but "worst case scenario" returns (at least, the worst we've seen in history) In fact if you look at the 30 year returns for all the ...
by mathjak107
Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1248

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

I don’t post here anymore as I am not a pp user . But I will add my 2 cents . Every failure at 4% happened because the real return fell below 2.50% over the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement . The failing years the 4% swr is based on are 1907 , 1929 ,1937 ,1965 and 1966 … There is really little...
by mathjak107
Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1268
Views: 116452

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Something tells me the fact that TLT is up about 10% since mathjak's final posts might have a lot to do with why he's disappeared. I'm proud to say I have no idea what the future holds for the PP, and TLT might give back it's 10% gains tomorrow, or stocks might drop 50% tomorrow and the gains in TL...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1268
Views: 116452

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund . my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money . MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income . so that is where your comparison is no...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 9:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1268
Views: 116452

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

the one year has tlt down about 14% despite the spike.despite rebalancing-some of it , down is down
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1268
Views: 116452

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

i have used the growth model up until before retirement blowing away a total market fund . my current models have been the income model PLUS the growth model for longer term money . MOST dont use the income model for anything but current and near term income . so that is where your comparison is not...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 8:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 1268
Views: 116452

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

You are making comments that are out in left field . As anyone here can tell you I have followed the fidelity insight portfolios for 30 years ….. Those were always my portfolios until I made the mistake in December of switching to the pp as the only portfolio. So you my friend need to learn facts be...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 8:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

If I was a stock bug I wouldn’t be 25-40% equities. But the fact is there is really only 4 points that can be discussed in the pp ….so yeah it is going to be the same arguments over and over We have high to hyper inflation and worthless currency We have the Japan deflation argument We have stocks ov...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 7:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read You've posted 3802 times. In every single convers...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 5:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 2:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Well you have to do what you see fit and we who think there are better ways going forward will do the same And yet you're still just going to spend hours on this forum grumbling and fussing about 'rising rates' and how you don't think the PP is going to work going forward. The biggest obstacle to f...
by mathjak107
Sat May 15, 2021 2:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

It could be just the opposite..the smaller the portfolio the more important it can be to get things right and not have assets in it get sand bagged by betting heavily on low rates and lower inflation at what stands a good chance of being the turn of a cycle. The penalty for being wrong can be very s...
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 5:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Well you have to do what you see fit and we who think there are better ways going forward will do the same
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Because the high yield act more like stock , the short term bonds is worth doing because if rates don’t rise it is better than cash and if they do they will not get hit much . The only risk Is a 17% stake in total bond and that is way way way less than tlt. Little danger there of holding back equiti...
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

i hold intermediate like total bond , short term like shy and high yield like hyg and a mortgage bond fund . interest rate sensitivity is a fraction of the pp.

50% of the pp is very aggressive as far as rate sensitivity , tlt and gld .
by mathjak107
Fri May 14, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing into more LTT
Replies: 103
Views: 8987

Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

It gave good results , but again 40 years of falling interest rates does not mean interest rate sensitive assets won’t be an issue if held in abundance….

Even intermediate terms bonds and 25% gold can be overly sensitive to rates and an outsized bet on them in my opinion for what it’s worth