I came close during covid. LTT must be getting close for some of us.

The thing with Schiff, he nailed the downside predictions of 2007, and at the same time his clients lost huge amounts. Schiff is a great Austrian economist with a quick whit, but that doesn’t make him a good investor. He is a good business man, because he’s figured out how to sell low returns for hi...

Thanks! Great site.

I haven’t looked, but did anyone hit any rebalance bands?

I've just realized the downside to stocks in IRA is that there is no chance to tax-loss harvest =(

A Keynesian and a Monetarist walk into a bar.... Naa, Austrian. "The Austrian school believes any increase in the money supply not supported by an increase in the production of goods and services leads to an increase in prices, but the prices of all goods do not increase simultaneously." Aggregate ...

Technical point...inflation is not more money in circulation, inflation is the prices of actual goods going up. As Japan has proved going on three decades now a lot of money in circulation does not equal inflation. Inflation is an expansion of the money supply. It can show itself in asset price inc...

HB was a fan of free market, Austrian economics. I believe it was Hayek who somewhat predicted Bitcoin - “I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do...

How would it be performing right now? Would you be rebalancing from gold into stocks and bonds?

mining stocks are so unpredictable. You could have a great mine that's functioning well and then the gov't slaps on some environmental taxes. Or you could have a junk mine that's lying about potential reserves. It's all a big mess and in no way an alternative to owning gold. The miners are one of th...

Personally, I prefer the Perth Mint Depository program. Less counterparty risk. https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-depository-program/ vs https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-gold-ASX-PMGOLD/ Have been using the depository program for years. Absolutely no issues. Interesting. any ex...

Personally, I prefer the Perth Mint Depository program. Less counterparty risk. https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-depository-program/ vs https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-gold-ASX-PMGOLD/ Have been using the depository program for years. Absolutely no issues. Interesting. any ex...

Anyone considered this again? Seems to have much less counterparty risk than other ETFs considering the custodian is Perth rather than these bankers. Seems to be the next best option to physical and would be an easy purchase on the ASX through Interactive Brokers. Am I missing anything? In the scena...

BTC is less than 1 trillion market cap. Gold is over 10 trillion. If we generously assume that 50% of bitcoin investment would have otherwise gone into gold, that'd mean what, 5% difference in gold price?

I regret that I let bogleheads steer me toward putting bonds in my tax-deferred accounts. I've added stocks for several years now. Especially the Roth IRA but also a Fidelity solo 401K. I don’t know how to do the math between paying the tax on bond payments each year and deferring stock gains tax, ...

It's a self employed 401k, so I can buy anything you normally could with a Fidelity account. I also have an inherited IRA that I must withdraw within 10 years.

I've finally crossed the point where I can hold something alongside bonds in my 401k. I know cash is often suggested, but with stupid low rates, would stocks make more sense?

I tip toed in back in 2016 I think. Bought about 50% portfolio and waited 6 months to buy another 50%. Cost me about 50k in missed gains at the time but it was the only emotionally viable option. And it could just as easily worked out to the good. So why not be more comfortable? It was the more com...

I tip toed in back in 2016 I think. Bought about 50% portfolio and waited 6 months to buy another 50%. Cost me about 50k in missed gains at the time but it was the only emotionally viable option. The PP is an emotional commitment, sometimes that means letting the façade of control slowly slip away v...

Maybe set your rebalance bands tighter so you are rebalancing more often, and not necessarily when you emotionally think it's a good time is my suggestion. Like today...stocks look like a good buy, but you never know. There's a whole weekend for this new variant news to get potentially worse. Perso...

At some point this grand Permanent Portfolio thinking process will be over and I can then move my thinking focus elsewhere. Vinny I did the same thing - 4 months of study. several Evernote pages filled with notes. The PP is simple to implement but takes a while to accept and grasp. once you do ther...

30% cash in a near zero interest rate environment and stated inflation running at over 4% ?? Cash is kind of like an option on future assets, and one has to pay a premium for options. Yeah but with no end in sight to low rates, I have a hard time putting any money into something that is guaranteed ...

I agree that BTC will inflate less than USD. But time value is based on preferences, and that would depend on the interest rate and expectations of the price vs other currencies or investment options. There are plenty of people who would like to be short BTC right now because they think it’s overval...

As for BTC in the PP, I think it could be seen as part of a VP in the same way that Tyler views the golden butterfly as a PP with a small cap value VP added to it. The reason is to capture those fleeing dollars for safety from inflation. You can’t argue that BTC doesn’t siphon off that inflation hed...

Time value of money is a fiat concept. It does not exist as a law of nature….only in a fiat economy. In all honesty I’m not against the fiat economy….to me, hold debt in fiat and wealth in BTC. It’s the perfect recipe! Time value of money is a human fact and has nothing to do with fiat, its directl...