Search found 122 matches

by Matthew19
Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Good time to own a bunker
Replies: 8
Views: 2835

Re: Good time to own a bunker

As a Golden Butterfly enthusiast myself the only "rebalancing" I plan on doing while this storm is pounding us is to PP-ify my GB - letting the stocks continue their downward drift all the way to 25% if need be and making sure all of the rest is well balanced between Treasuries and gold (...
by Matthew19
Mon Mar 17, 2025 2:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 29
Views: 23279

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

Just chiming in here because there's no clear guidance on Golden Butterfly rebalancing. Here's how I landed on 12% and 28% bands (40% swings) Previous post summary: 1. Tyler originally suggested 10% and 30% bands for simplicity 2. Sophie suggested 14% and 26% 3. Harry Browne allows for 40% swings in...
by Matthew19
Sat Mar 15, 2025 6:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 416730

Re: BTC in the PP

Not gonna read all of the recent reply's, but it's clear you all should have been adding some BTC
by Matthew19
Sat Mar 15, 2025 6:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's hitting rebalance bands?
Replies: 1
Views: 3419

Who's hitting rebalance bands?

I'm have a golden butterfly PP and right on the edge of rebalancing gold. I hate to trigger the tax though. Man, haven't had this problem since starting my PP, it's almost harder than buying a hated asset.
by Matthew19
Tue Jan 28, 2025 12:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457
Replies: 8
Views: 6751

Re: Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457

"A society that puts equality—in the sense of equality of outcome—ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom, and the force, introduced for good purposes, will end up in the hands of people who use it to promote the...
by Matthew19
Tue Jan 28, 2025 10:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457
Replies: 8
Views: 6751

Re: Jennifer Burns: Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, Economics, Capitalism, Freedom | Lex Fridman Podcast #457

"A society that puts equality—in the sense of equality of outcome—ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom, and the force, introduced for good purposes, will end up in the hands of people who use it to promote the...
by Matthew19
Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So how did I Bonds perform relative to Bonds?
Replies: 2
Views: 5289

So how did I Bonds perform relative to Bonds?

Given the drastic decrease in bond value from rising interest rates, how did an I bond perform? I’m assuming their liquidation value has held up much better?

Are you guys using these as STT or LTT replacements?
by Matthew19
Tue Mar 19, 2024 10:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Just made a purchase at 5.088 for 30 year LTTs
Replies: 46
Views: 54678

Re: Just made a purchase at 5.088 for 30 year LTTs

ppnewbie wrote: Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:10 pm Its hard to buy something that nobody wants!
You nailed this buy, and hopefully all credit goes towards the built in rebalancing of the PP.
by Matthew19
Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 416730

Re: BTC in the PP

The interesting thing about this, is that in the long run, it might not matter much how much you have, just as long as you have some. I personally don’t care about the difference between being a billionaire or a trillionaire. This is exactly how I bought. Just threw some tiny cash into it and walke...
by Matthew19
Fri Mar 01, 2024 6:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 416730

Re: BTC in the PP

I'm like 15% right now. I don't want leveraged plays for the same reasons I don't want a 2 or 3x gold etc. Could be wrong and it minimizes other factors.

Saylor's last interview goes into why he prefers it over any other asset - https://youtu.be/qBPtUf50XVg?si=KNgCr4aHg1uxmCwj
by Matthew19
Fri Mar 01, 2024 1:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 446
Views: 416730

Re: BTC in the PP

The bitcoin etfs are already half the value of the gold etfs. It’s sucking up that market. Also bitcoin market cap is higher than meta/facebook now.

Anyone who added this to their vp is getting the inflation protection that gold didn’t bring over the last two years.
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
Replies: 7
Views: 4405

Re: Rebalancing and Timing

I just did a pretty deep dive on this myself. There are a few studies showing checking every 10 days and rebalancing if needed had the highest returns. The practical way is to check when you know the markets have significantly moved, it usually makes the news. Also, second point was ”tolerance bands...
by Matthew19
Fri Feb 02, 2024 11:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's putting cash in tax free accounts?
Replies: 2
Views: 2770

Re: Who's putting cash in tax free accounts?

I see the value in having the cash more accessible, no big tax hit when selling a t-bill.
by Matthew19
Thu Feb 01, 2024 3:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Who's putting cash in tax free accounts?
Replies: 2
Views: 2770

Who's putting cash in tax free accounts?

I can't stand thinking about this - I have cash in taxable and some stocks in a Roth. I could swap them now while I'm rebalancing but the math just doesn't click. Wouldn't having a higher growth asset in a be better? Also have a tax deferred account too.
by Matthew19
Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?
Replies: 13
Views: 25180

Alright who’s hitting rebalancing bands?

I came close during covid. LTT must be getting close for some of us.
by Matthew19
Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP
Replies: 100
Views: 47350

Re: The Peter Schiff portfolio: an evolutionary offshoot of the PP

The thing with Schiff, he nailed the downside predictions of 2007, and at the same time his clients lost huge amounts. Schiff is a great Austrian economist with a quick whit, but that doesn’t make him a good investor. He is a good business man, because he’s figured out how to sell low returns for hi...
by Matthew19
Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: longtermtrends.net
Replies: 1
Views: 1261

Re: longtermtrends.net

Thanks! Great site.
by Matthew19
Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 40725

Re: 2022 Returns

I haven’t looked, but did anyone hit any rebalance bands?
by Matthew19
Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2nd asset in tax deferred?
Replies: 17
Views: 7816

Re: 2nd asset in tax deferred?

I've just realized the downside to stocks in IRA is that there is no chance to tax-loss harvest =(
by Matthew19
Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 81
Views: 41469

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

A Keynesian and a Monetarist walk into a bar.... Naa, Austrian. "The Austrian school believes any increase in the money supply not supported by an increase in the production of goods and services leads to an increase in prices, but the prices of all goods do not increase simultaneously." ...
by Matthew19
Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 81
Views: 41469

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

Technical point...inflation is not more money in circulation, inflation is the prices of actual goods going up. As Japan has proved going on three decades now a lot of money in circulation does not equal inflation. Inflation is an expansion of the money supply. It can show itself in asset price inc...
by Matthew19
Fri May 13, 2022 9:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 291
Views: 97232

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

HB was a fan of free market, Austrian economics. I believe it was Hayek who somewhat predicted Bitcoin - “I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do...
by Matthew19
Wed Mar 16, 2022 11:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Russian PP
Replies: 4
Views: 2466

Russian PP

How would it be performing right now? Would you be rebalancing from gold into stocks and bonds?
by Matthew19
Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Are The Gold Miners A More Tax Friendly Investment?
Replies: 7
Views: 3684

Re: Are The Gold Miners A More Tax Friendly Investment?

mining stocks are so unpredictable. You could have a great mine that's functioning well and then the gov't slaps on some environmental taxes. Or you could have a junk mine that's lying about potential reserves. It's all a big mess and in no way an alternative to owning gold. The miners are one of th...
by Matthew19
Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:04 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Revisiting PMGOLD
Replies: 6
Views: 3135

Re: Revisiting PMGOLD

Personally, I prefer the Perth Mint Depository program. Less counterparty risk. https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-depository-program/ vs https://www.perthmint.com/invest/perth-mint-gold-ASX-PMGOLD/ Have been using the depository program for years. Absolutely no issues. Interesting. any ex...