Search found 242 matches

by dutchtraffic
Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
Replies: 5
Views: 9810

Re: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk

?

For a portfolio 10 x as conservative than a PP..? ::)
by dutchtraffic
Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
Replies: 5
Views: 9810

100% stocks with almost no downside risk

I might be missing something here, so if you can shoot some holes in this, please do! Go long QQQ or whatever index, and buy deep itm puts to hedge. Looking at some numbers here, the QQQ 205 put expiring in DEC has just 1.29% annualized timevalue and 77 delta, and QQQ would need to rise about 7somet...
by dutchtraffic
Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New bond ETFs are very helpful
Replies: 3
Views: 3758

Re: New bond ETFs are very helpful

For europeans that want a US style PP, you can now also buy US longterm bonds hedged to euros.

https://www.ishares.com/uk/institutiona ... titutional
by dutchtraffic
Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New bond ETFs are very helpful
Replies: 3
Views: 3758

Re: New bond ETFs are very helpful

This is extremely interesting to me... "hedged to local currency" here means that the forex risk is hedged? I.e. you don't run currency risk when you hold this ETF in euros? I suspect this is a costly affair? This may be a solution to the exasperating problem that we Europeans have, with the crazy ...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New bond ETFs are very helpful
Replies: 3
Views: 3758

New bond ETFs are very helpful

The new global bond ETFs hedged to local currency are very helpful to fix some problems, especially for europeans who didn't know which bonds to buy or simply do not want to hold strictly european bonds. (can't blame them) They are: iShares Global Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged) UCITS ETF ISIN: IE00BDBR...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

Why does everybody want to reinvent the wheel? Why use another platform and lose all organic traffic...? Doesn't make any sense whatsoever ???
by dutchtraffic
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

Everyone, how important would migration be rather than starting over? The best thing would be to keep the setup as it is right now, same forum, same everything. That way organic traffic is not affected. Google won't like it when all your content is suddenly gone. There's not really any reason for d...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Moving out of the PP
Replies: 10
Views: 8703

Re: Moving out of the PP

I consider it extremely unlikely that individual Dutch savings accounts will be at risk when you stay within the limits of government insurance. I do agree that some extra diversification would be better though. Haven't thought about short-term corporates yet. In general I prefer treasuries for saf...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 45
Views: 30683

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

For 20-30 $ /month you can run this board on a dedicated server which is 10 -20 times more powerful than it needs to be.
Throw some adsense ads on it and you make multiples of that back.

I really have no idea how this forum is even running into limits, the traffic is very low ???
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

MachineGhost wrote:
dutchtraffic wrote:The drawdown can never be higher than buy and hold :)
Why does your chart (first one) show it higher then?
I think there's something wrong with it, the second chart is also from a much more credible source.
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

And if you are worried about missed gains during a sharp increase of the underlying, then sell 20 delta or even further 5-10 delta, it's pretty much free money if you are that many strikes away.
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

Your graph is selling ATM calls, not OTM, big difference. My bad. I was also thinking of naked not covered. However, do note that in your chart the maximum drawdown is MUCH, MUCH larger than the S&P 500. If the risk/reward is better then I say go for it, otherwise you're just getting a little bit e...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

OTM has better returns than buy and hold.

Image
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

It should lower volatility AND increase returns, we're not talking about writing ATM calls, there is enough upside room left. Nonsense. Selling volatility does NOT lower volatility in the long-run . You are making a anti-Black Swan bet. Moreover, a 10% allocation doesn't increase returns: Your grap...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

I made a topic about this but nobody seems to pick up on this. http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8723 There's just nothing to say. It does nothing for risk control and it breaks the risk parity. It's just a Prosperity enhancement like many other possibilities, except its ...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

One strategy that I was surprised that never gained traction here was selling calls and puts as a way to boost returns. It seems like there should be a way devise some sort of algorithm around the rebalancing bands that gives an indication of what level to sell calls and puts. With highly volatile ...
by dutchtraffic
Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

Why would the tax cuts only be for "the rich"....?
That's a total false statement, watching a bit too much of the left media?

Image
by dutchtraffic
Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

So let me get this straight. Everybody is whining like crazy for ages that rates are waayyyyy too low, and when they finally rise a tiny tiny bit, everybody goes full-mental mode...? Look at the longterm chart, it barely moved, it's still a loonnnnggg way down to get to normal rates. And it's still ...
by dutchtraffic
Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65420

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

CullyB wrote:What is the maximum time horizon on 2 of the assets falling simultaneously? It sure looks like that might happen for the next 4 years or even 8.
All 4 of them could decline for the next 300 years.

What do you mean..?
by dutchtraffic
Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 8693

Re: International diversification

Granted, all fiat money is just paper, but not everywhere is Zimbabwe. In 50 years the US dollar has gone from 4.38 swiss francs to parity, and the pound from 8.58 to 1.68 Singapore dollars. That's structural, rather than market fluctuation. My understanding of the PP is that it is a volatility str...
by dutchtraffic
Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 8693

Re: International diversification

It really doesn't make any sense at all to create a PP with singaporean bonds if you live in the UK.
What's wrong with UK bonds? The argument of currency debasement is invalid because every fiat currency ends up worthless eventually.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... D&view=10Y
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Creating some yield
Replies: 2
Views: 3502

Re: Creating some yield

I can't believe nobody is doing this....? I'm using this portfolio now and writing weekly calls with 20-30 delta on all assets except MINT ofc. 20% cash: MINT 20% stocks: SPY 20% stocks: EFA 20% gold: GLD 20% bonds: TLT And calls on these ETFs deliver a lot more than just "a tiny return", especially...
by dutchtraffic
Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP and the Election
Replies: 13
Views: 10695

Re: PP and the Election

Every asset has been going up at the same time, obviously they can and will all drop at the same time as well. This is just a very minor drop, nothing to panic about at all, what will you do when all 3 assets come crashing down? Don't forget stocks even jumped higher, which were already stupidly ove...
by dutchtraffic
Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

1 day before the election i had made my decision to drop my euro assets entirely and move over to a portfolio in USD. Obviously there is still EURO exposure from stocks in the S&P500, and EFA. I switched to a PP-like portfolio: 20% cash: MINT 20% stocks: SPY 20% stocks: EFA 20% gold: GLD 20% bonds: ...
by dutchtraffic
Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41725

Re: Slowly bleeding

On the topic of how countries could deal with foreign bondholders during a euro currency crisis.
It's obviously more likely that domestic bondholders will be treated "better".

Now i'm wondering how an Irish Ishares etf that holds bonds from my own country would be treated, hmz..