Search found 3357 matches

by ochotona
Fri Aug 02, 2024 9:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 501
Views: 343726

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=254376#p254376 Possible sell signal end of August if the S&P500 falls more. Since my last update, I'm still beating the 60/40. If we're going into a recession, that outperformance will intensify. I want to retire next May, I can't be havi...
by ochotona
Fri Aug 02, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Sahm indicator just threw a signal - we are in a recession
Replies: 6
Views: 4703

Re: The Sahm indicator just threw a signal - we are in a recession

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what ... ut-economy

I SELL equities if the S&P500 loses its 6 month moving average minus a 1% fudge factor, so I'm selling on Friday August 30, if $SPX >= 5246. That's -1.7% away from where we are now.
by ochotona
Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:08 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Sahm indicator just threw a signal - we are in a recession
Replies: 6
Views: 4703

The Sahm indicator just threw a signal - we are in a recession

It's 0.53 as of today, unless my math is wrong (which it might be). Look at the official graph later. It has a stellar track record.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
by ochotona
Fri Mar 29, 2024 8:55 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 95
Views: 106510

Re: Why the big move in gold?

Congratulations! $2200+ for the month and quarterly closes!
by ochotona
Fri Dec 22, 2023 10:13 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

I think you guys have it mixed up which side in this "culture war" is obsessed with sex and gender and orientation etc and which is the one responding to that. Vinny is absolutely right that adultery has been far too normalized. Even when a divorce is for cause like adultery it only affec...
by ochotona
Thu Dec 21, 2023 7:29 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

I think it goes beyond abortion... it's anything sex organ related. If you met someone who all the time talked about Pokemon, non-stop, Pokemon this, Pokemon that, Pokemon values on eBay, conspiracies against Pokemon owners and suppression of their collection values (like goldbugs LOL) then you'd th...
by ochotona
Mon Dec 18, 2023 3:06 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Javier Milei, Argentina, wants to Dollarize their economy?
Replies: 6
Views: 10541

Re: Javier Milei, Argentina, wants to Dollarize their economy?

'There is no money': Javier Milei delivers Argentines painful truth in maiden speech

Oh boy... how long is he going to last at this rate?

https://youtu.be/pcdDwUyAf84?si=NDeOUgtuWpeghN3E
by ochotona
Mon Dec 18, 2023 11:59 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

There was an interesting study done looking at local communities spanning either side of Erie, PA... the three States of Ohio, PA, and NY... and there were significant differences in health and longevity. The conclusion was based on how difficult / costly it was for people to gain access to care, wh...
by ochotona
Sat Dec 16, 2023 6:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

IMO the taking of a life should be a matter of being justifiable. A soldier killing a enemy has domestic peers justification. A emergency case of a mother presenting in her 9th month and it should be a doctors/family peers call. Around a non absolute guidance law. I could not have said it better. O...
by ochotona
Thu Dec 14, 2023 12:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

I don't disagree. But you failed to answer my questions: -Is the CO law allowing elective abortion in the ninth month acceptable? -Why are more people moving from blue states to red? (Maybe abortion isn't the only issue to consider?) I don't think doing abortions in the 9th month is OK at all, but ...
by ochotona
Wed Dec 13, 2023 1:49 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

My real issue is with the exceptions. I think those who argue that the progeny of a rapist deserves to be brought into the world by means of the body of the victim are excessively cruel. Such a stance assigns zero value, zero meaning for what it's like to be the victim of a sexual assault, and to ha...
by ochotona
Sun Dec 10, 2023 10:54 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

He didn't have to. The issue was settled thousands of years earlier in Exodus 20: Thou shall not kill. I'm very glad you brought this up, because coming back to the present day, which are the parties more likely to cause death in the case of pregnant women with difficult pregnancies (Google on &quo...
by ochotona
Sun Dec 10, 2023 9:29 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

For those who need context: The Beatitudes The text of St. Matthew runs as follows: Blessed are the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. (Verse 3) Blessed are the meek: for they shall possess the land. (Verse 4) Blessed are they who mourn: for they shall be comforted. (Verse 5) Bless...
by ochotona
Sun Dec 10, 2023 8:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

joypog wrote: Sun Dec 10, 2023 8:32 am but without the softening balm of Jesus talk.
The words of Jesus are in red in my New King James bible, and he never talked about abortion! He he did hang out with prostitutes, whom He forgave.
by ochotona
Sat Dec 09, 2023 8:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Rational reasons why you should be prepared
Replies: 10
Views: 15864

Re: Rational reasons why you should be prepared

I taught my kids how to use a paper road atlas to navigate cross-country in case of an emergency GPS outage. I keep a paper road atlas... it never gets used, but I have it.
by ochotona
Sat Dec 09, 2023 8:37 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

dualstow wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 10:57 am Are you a fan of Richard Wright at all, Ocho?
Although he’s a bit too far left for me on some issues I really liked his book on Texas. I’ll have to reborrow it someday.
I don't know about Wright
by ochotona
Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 95
Views: 106510

Re: Why the big move in gold?

Gold at 2000 that was short-lived
by ochotona
Fri Dec 08, 2023 10:22 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

Here it comes... Texas AG wants to prosecute the couple after a judge granted their emergency request for an abortion based on medical necessity. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ag-ken-paxton-warns-houston-hospitals-not-to-comply-with-judge-s-emergency-abortion-order/ar-AA1laBtk Is he setting him...
by ochotona
Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:08 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

Here it comes... Texas AG wants to prosecute the couple after a judge granted their emergency request for an abortion based on medical necessity. Paxton wants to play doctor with women's lives. What a complete turd. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ag-ken-paxton-warns-houston-hospitals-not-to-compl...
by ochotona
Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 95
Views: 106510

Re: Why the big move in gold?

Kitco app says $2135 now? Someone's chasing it hard.
by ochotona
Sat Dec 02, 2023 12:33 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

Thank you for your sentiments. I appreciate it very much.
by ochotona
Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

One thing about Texas... most of the knowledge workers are NOT from Texas, even in the oilpatch. The modern Oil & Gas industry is very high tech. At least half of us immigrated to Texas for money and jobs. Texas does a pretty bad job of educating its native sons and daughters when you get right ...
by ochotona
Fri Dec 01, 2023 6:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond - Bullion Barbell
Replies: 0
Views: 24488

The Bond - Bullion Barbell

Perma-bear David "Rosie" Rosenberg thinks Long Bonds could be up 25% in 2024. He's also bullish on gold.

https://youtu.be/eRhbFNi3Has?si=cddW695zm5JB5Pff
by ochotona
Fri Dec 01, 2023 11:59 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.
Replies: 62
Views: 372055

Re: The Red State Brain Drain Isn’t Coming. It’s Happening Right Now.

Both of my daughters left Texas recently. They can't really get 100% comprehensive gynecological care here. Ectopic pregnancy? Fetus going to inevitably die? We're sorry. Come back when you're septic and your internal organs are failing. Then we'll talk. One of them at least wants to have kids, but ...