Search found 3238 matches

by ochotona
Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 555
Views: 226352

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Now I remember why I left the forum for two years
by ochotona
Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 555
Views: 226352

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

You're being ridiculous. The smallest companies in the SP are like Alaska Airlines, News Corp, Fox News, DaVita, Norwegian Cruise Lines .. Don't throw that Joe's Vegan Taco stuff around any longer. You make yourself look absurd. Your posts don't deserve a reply
by ochotona
Sun Jun 12, 2022 11:44 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 17
Views: 2905

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

US Treasury sent me an email saying they expect conversion of paper I-Bonds to digital to take SIXTEEN WEEKS! >:(
by ochotona
Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 555
Views: 226352

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Would you say that such funds are a kind of automatic buy-low sell-high? YES. Whenever they rebalance to equal Dollar amounts for each security, they will do that. Market-cap weighted are a momentum strategy. The titans of the S&P500 got that way because they have grown a lot in recent years, which...
by ochotona
Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 555
Views: 226352

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I will have to try!

And that point the GB devolves into an HBPP with an equity tilt...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Direct investment in oil & gas wells
Replies: 7
Views: 482

Re: Direct investment in oil & gas wells

How much of the shale boom was unprofitable and doomed to fail. And who funded that, Fed or stupid investors or both The Fed put everyone on a chase for yield. The shale companies had a compelling story. They did produce a lot of oil, they just lost money with every barrel. Now they are making mone...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 6:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Direct investment in oil & gas wells
Replies: 7
Views: 482

Re: Direct investment in oil & gas wells

Publicly traded oil and gas firms are not drilling aggressively now because they have shale debts to pay off, investors want cash returned to them not burnt up in more unprofitable misadventures, and ESG is a factor. That's the entire premise behind Energy Funders - disintermediate the crappy manage...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 6:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1956

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

Cap weight is equal weight. You own 1% of Amazon and 1% of Joe's vegan taco stand. Equal weight means your portfolio has the same dollar amount of Amazon and of Joe's vegan taco stand. Go to RSP Page at Invesco and look at detailed holdings. It's the same dollar amount for the largest firms as for ...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 5:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Direct investment in oil & gas wells
Replies: 7
Views: 482

Re: Direct investment in oil & gas wells

Ocho whats your take on Peak Oil Everyone well, field, petroleum province, nation sees a peak and decline in oil and gas production. Also the entire planet will. It's just physics and chemistry. Higher price gets more exploration going, though, but as depletion continues the prices required increas...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 555
Views: 226352

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefore mor...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 39
Views: 3448

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

Hi edwardjk you totally misunderstood my statement. I was not implying that one should live off interest and dividends. I didn't say that at all. Being able to generate cash flows includes selling assets, as well as interest and dividends.
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 11:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Direct investment in oil & gas wells
Replies: 7
Views: 482

Direct investment in oil & gas wells

I put 1% of my portfolio into EnergyFunders.com they directly invest in oil & gas wells. But it has a 3-5 year lock up, it's for accredited investors only, and you sign away your money! No liquidity, you cannot get out. I know the people involved personally, so it was semi-easy for me here in Housto...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My crypto journey
Replies: 2
Views: 286

Re: My crypto journey

Thank you. I maybe have to sell by 12/31/2023 anyway because of that beyatch IRMAA
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 39
Views: 3448

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

Perspective from a near-retiree: "How much can I afford to lose?" is the wrong question for me. This question is framed around Net Worth, and changes to Net Worth. Net worth doesn't matter for retirees. Repeat - net worth doesn't matter for retirees. The ability to generate after-tax inflation adjus...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:16 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1956

Re: Unequal Sector Coverage in ETFs

From its inception in 2003, RSP (S&P500 equal-weight ETF) has beaten SPY / IVV / VOO. I think the value vs growth argument by the OP is compelling. Equal weight is MORE AGNOSTIC than an implicit tilt toward growth. If you're truly honest with yourself, and you truly believe this statement - "I don't...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:08 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My crypto journey
Replies: 2
Views: 286

My crypto journey

My crypto journey: 1. In 2020, put 1% of portfolio into Bitcoin ($10,000 per coin) and Ethereum ($250 per coin) 2. Both zoomed. BTC went up like 5x in a matter of months 3. I pulled my original capital OUT, so my at-risk money was now $0 (I did it in a tax-free manner too… buy donating to a charity ...
by ochotona
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:58 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 228
Views: 12242

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

You guys are arguing about hardware, and laws related to it, and missing the other part of the 2nd Amendment. Well Regulated Militia. How is what we have a Well Regulated Militia? I think there should be a Militia, organized at a low level (County perhaps), and everyone who wants to be on it has to ...
by ochotona
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 503
Views: 241614

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

dualstow wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 4:26 pm
ochotona wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:26 pm
UPDATE
I remember when you were aquiring gold coins regularly until you hit a certain allocation. I wish I had been doing the same at those prices.
And I bought Bitcoin at $10,500! A streak of good luck.
by ochotona
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 9
Views: 1832

Re: coping with a LTT bear market

The longest drawdown for this portfolio is about a year. I'd do nothing, put all new money to cash, but then rebalance on Jan 1, 2023. That's what I'd do.
by ochotona
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

$100+ oil never hurts the oil business. Things are picking up. We expect 2023 to be exceptional for our oil & gas cloud computing and consulting company. Thanks. Can you recommend something to read that explains the pros and cons of the Keystone XL Pipeline? I'm looking for something that doesn't h...
by ochotona
Sun Jun 05, 2022 7:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

$100+ oil never hurts the oil business. Things are picking up. We expect 2023 to be exceptional for our oil & gas cloud computing and consulting company.
by ochotona
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 294
Views: 20208

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I'm dropping in after a long absence. I'm taking note of the pretty severe drawdown in the HBPP, and I must say it's making me more hopeful about the model. Even though HBPP is a collection of four things, not just one thing, mean reversion is a strong force. If the portfolio is down 10% or more the...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin and Taxes
Replies: 3
Views: 623

Re: Bitcoin and Taxes

I got into Bitcoin at $10,500 and Ethereum at $250. BTC quadrupled on me, so I donated an amount equal to my initial spend to a Fidelity Donor Advised Fund, thereby recovering my original value in a tax-free manner (I get to control where the DAF sends charity donations). So my downside is $0 even i...
by ochotona
Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 503
Views: 241614

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

UPDATE My portfolio drawdown is about the same as the HBPP... -8.8%. But my growth has been a lot more, over the past two years (I've been gone about that period of time, right?) my portfolio is up 67% (of course, that includes new money as well as internal growth), and now I'm retirement-ready. I c...
by ochotona
Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:57 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Censorship continued: first the Parler app then @realDonaldTrump
Replies: 154
Views: 29230

Re: Censorship continued: first the Parler app then @realDonaldTrump

Because why? Because MUH FREEDUMS? Wait... doesn't the hosting organizations in all of these (absurd) examples have MUH FREEDUMS too? Could you make your point without the demeaning regional sound effects intended to paint libertarians as backward illiterates? This has been going on for quite some ...