One of my five strategies went bullish the other day. I only trade it on end-of-month. We shall see. @mathjak107 Are there other providers for retail hedging other than AQR? They can't be the only ones. I agree totally, the most important thing for retirees is risk-adjusted return. That maximizes sa...

I'd be extremely pissed off if tariffs and retaliatory tariffs harmed the safe haven / store of value role of gold. LIKE THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY REALLY CREATES VALUE FOR HUMANITY :-( “If you’re a trader and you can find someone who’s willing to sell you outside the US at a discount to the US price, an...

I hadn't thought that gold would be tariffed... but yeah, why shouldn't it be? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariff-risks-fueling-chaotic-144639342.html This sounds like a real chaos maker. It's just about like putting tariffs on foreign exchange movements, because gold is a currency. Gold is...

with the newer alternative type investments combined with equities , they likely will run with the ball if stocks are flat . long term bonds are unreliable as far as protecting stocks as 2022 showed . they are old school when there was nothing better for the small investor and strategy’s like these...

This "V-shaped glidepath" summarizes my approach perfectly. I turn 64 this year, will retire about 64.5, and I will consume a large slug of short term Treasuries (a short ladder) from retirement to age 70 at which point Social Security starts. As I consume the fixed income, the portfolio w...

TBH, I'm lagging the pure S&P500 or Total Stock Market for lo these past 10 years. My returns are more like a 60/40, but less volatility. It has HBPP levels of volatility with 60/40 returns. It's exactly what I was aiming for. But... it's active! You have to close your eyes and TRADE at the end ...

Looks like my tactical portfolio is going 80% risk off for me tomorrow. I devote 60% of the portfolio to tactical, 1% to buy and hold equities... so I will be 13% risk-on.

17% gold

70% is in cash and short term Treasuries (nothing longer than 3 years)

Gold increases to $3000
GDXJ and GDX decrease

What’s the fee? And how much over spot do you pay? I pay a flat $190 per year. For my number of ounces, it works out to less than any comparable ETF expense ratio. As to bid/ask spread, it's whatever exists in the marketplace at the time of purchase. The custodian does not sell you metals. The gold...

One advantage of having a physical gold IRA is you pay the custodian with after-tax money. It's a bit like making an additional small IRA contribution into an IRA containing ETF every year to counteract the ETF decay. My custodian expense ratio is lower than SGOL or GLDM anyway, so I'm very happy. I...

That's why you don't just look at TWO cherry-picked cases, you either let a Monte Carlo simulate 1000s of cases (using the admittedly faulty assumption that portfolio returns are normally distributed and can be described by STD DEV and MEAN), or you look at actual historical returns at PortfolioChar...

My four tactical models and their percentages, published at AllocateSmartly.com 12% Bold Asset Allocation (aggressive variant) 24% Hybrid Asset Allocation (balanced variant) 12% Risk Premium Value (best value) 12% Paul Novell's SPY-COMP Also buy & hold 17% Gold and miners 1% equities in my wife'...

If the US Treasury starts becoming a price-insensitive buyer of BTC (using BTC alongside Gold as a reserve asset), plus MicroStrategy being a levered play itself on BTC which will have enormous number of price-insensitive QQQ buyers... institutions, not only retail... it's easy to see how this could...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2024 4:05 am

My favourite part about this is that the folks at the bogleheads forum are buying ever increasing amounts of bitcoin whether they like it or not.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA

This is really a pile of stupidity. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/13/bitcoin-proxy-microstrategy-to-join-the-nasdaq-100-and-heavily-traded-qqq-etf.html The initial weight will be about 0.5%, but since MicroStrategy uses company borrowing power to buy Bitcoin, anyone who owns MicroStategy really has m...

MacroVoices is on most podcast players and YouTube. Listen to her own arguments and see if you agree.

On the MacroVoices podcast, David Rosenberg threw in the towel on being bearish on the US stock market. To me, that's a little bell going off. When the most bearish capitulate, that's it. That's the top. Steph Pomboy, on Taggart's Thoughtful Money, expressed the opinion that the economy has been in ...

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2024 10:46 am https://elmwealth.com/capital-market-assumptions/

Edit: whoops, you were looking backwards. This link was about looking forward.

Thanks for the cheery note ! {barf}

Yeah, it's not going to be nice for the next decade. Too many other shoes to drop.

Out of NASDAQ 100, DOW 30, S&P500, US TOTAL MARKET, the answer is... DOW 30. Highest Sharpe Ratio, highest Sortino Ratio, Highest Ulcer Performance Index, lowest maximum drawdown, shortest maximum drawdown of the four. From 1/1/1970 to the Present. CAGR 11.7%, 11.0%, 10.9%, 11.0% respectively. T...

"Or maybe mass deportation brings housing demand down?" There is some truth in that... people here illegally occupy apartments, so rents on low-end apartments will go down, which will have knock-on effects up the housing upgrade chain. But many (in my area of Texas, most if not all) work c...

Schwab Bond Market Update for December 2024 "The market implied Fed funds rate for December 2025 has risen from sub 3% to the 3.75% to 4% area" If we stick a landing at 4% or just below... that's not so bad for us savers. T-Bills will be there, and I'm guessing most high yield bank bank s...

I wonder how an equal weight Dow Jones Industrial Average would do... it's only 30 stocks, anyone could do it.

Now it gets messy and chaotic. I think Vlad is going to pull his kompromot choke chain. The apprentice isn't supposed to flex on the master. If Dollar hegemony and the Petrodollar end, it's very bad for the US. 100% tariff on everything from China? And Saudi oil? (BTW, we have to import oil from abr...

It all started when I made comments about my Texas Senator Cruz, who I dislike. I got banned from r/texas Then in r/politics I responded to a question about the Hispanic electorate here in Texas with my own observations. That's when the permaban took place. The bot said... "you've made a racial...

Oh I follow you... compared to US megas, ex-US large caps are "relatively small". That's a good way to think about it. What do you think about ACWV min-volatility global? It actually tracked VT pretty well until COVID, then VT took off, because of US Tech. ACWV doesn't have much of the Mag...