Search found 3717 matches

by ochotona
Wed Nov 05, 2025 8:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Which ETFs Are Most Used in the American Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: Which ETFs Are Most Used in the American Permanent Portfolio?

Since the portfolio is buy and hold, consider IAUM for gold. Low expense ratio. My ETF gold is there. For cash, SGOV.
by ochotona
Tue Nov 04, 2025 7:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 13
Views: 65842

Re: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)

I think people get all overly excited about gold tokenization. OK, here I am using that same acronym that I hate, but "ELI5, explain it to me like I'm five"... if "someone" issues me a gold token in exchange for my fiat, how do I know they aren't lying, how do I know that I just ...
by ochotona
Fri Oct 31, 2025 7:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Uncorrelated Strategies (Carry Trade & Trend Following) in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 18656

Re: Uncorrelated Strategies (Carry Trade & Trend Following) in the Permanent Portfolio

I started this thread eight years ago . This is what I do - bonds, gold, cash, and trendfollowing equity. Almost zero buy and hold equity. There is a tiny sliver of global equities in my wife's TIAA, I don't manage that. Right now it's 53% trendfollowing equity, and the other three things held roug...
by ochotona
Tue Oct 28, 2025 11:14 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash Regime Room
Replies: 7
Views: 1417

Re: Cash Regime Room

But rates are going down... in the moon going down?
by ochotona
Fri Oct 24, 2025 8:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1561
Views: 1148872

Re: Stock scream room

I wonder how much tilting to value or overweighting emerging markets will help over the next decade. This may help. You don't need an account for RA, just click through the login page. https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation#!/?currency=USD&scale=LINEAR&terms=REAL Blackr...
by ochotona
Thu Oct 23, 2025 10:05 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1561
Views: 1148872

Re: Stock scream room

many valuation models, wide dispersion, but median is roughly 0% over the next decade.

Image
by ochotona
Wed Oct 22, 2025 9:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 13
Views: 65842

Re: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)

100% IEMG? Oh my that's conviction. I think mine is going to end up at 31% IEMG on October 31. Rest is IEFA, FNDX (I use instead of SPY and QQQ due to tech overconcentration risk), IWM. Just yesterday the strategy went 5% TLT we will see if it holds.
by ochotona
Tue Oct 21, 2025 10:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4049
Views: 2986431

Re: The GOLD scream room

Ouch day today. About a week ago I sold all of my miners because the ratio GDX:GLX's RSI had just blown up to way overbought. A few weeks ago, I sold 1/3 of my gold, and it's sitting in SGOV. I'm not sure I'll buy miners again.
by ochotona
Mon Oct 20, 2025 7:33 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)
Replies: 13
Views: 65842

Re: AllocateSmartly (Ochotona)

My Allocatesmartly portfolio is going fully risk-on at the end of October, it is a mix of US stocks and International. Apparently, tariffs aren't hitting the global equity market yet.

Don't trade your political beliefs... trade the price action. The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.
by ochotona
Wed Oct 15, 2025 1:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 41
Views: 167799

Re: Those of you who track silver

My Mom had a bi-metallic position, half gold, half silver. I sold the silver and went 100% gold. Figured at age 96 she didn't need the added volatility. Now she's got 94% T-Bills and 6% Gold ETF. I think it's good.
by ochotona
Fri Oct 10, 2025 8:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 💰 What Percentage of Bitcoin Fits into a Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 19912

Re: 💰 What Percentage of Bitcoin Fits into a Permanent Portfolio?

"Portfolio optimization studies suggest that around 2.5% of total net worth allocated to Bitcoin through the VP can maximize asymmetrical upside without meaningfully increasing portfolio risk." Optimization studies are like backtesting (in fact, they are backtesting). They use historical d...
by ochotona
Wed Oct 08, 2025 8:26 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4049
Views: 2986431

Re: The GOLD scream room

I had to buy a bunch of miners for Dad’s stock newsletter that he likes. They’ve been going gangbusters along with the rest of the market. What is this "had to"? Did someone hold a gun to your head? Look at the weekly RSI of the ratio GDXJ:$GOLD on stockcharts.com that is really a risky p...
by ochotona
Tue Oct 07, 2025 11:51 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4049
Views: 2986431

Re: The GOLD scream room

I sold my junior miners and bought gold ETF. If gold corrects, junior miners will get executed. I don't need that! I'm nor going to get greedy.
by ochotona
Sun Oct 05, 2025 6:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4049
Views: 2986431

Re: The GOLD scream room

$3913 spot at Kitco
by ochotona
Tue Sep 30, 2025 8:21 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 15
Views: 23682

Re: Gold tax location

Thanks for the year-end summary information, I'll feed it to my CPA.
by ochotona
Tue Sep 30, 2025 8:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4049
Views: 2986431

Re: The GOLD scream room

Gold and the miners have come so far so fast I have to think there will be a correction. How much, how long??? IDK
by ochotona
Wed Sep 24, 2025 8:53 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1561
Views: 1148872

Re: Stock scream room

If I were a Central Bank, I'd want my gold the heck out of Manhattan.
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 2:59 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 15
Views: 23682

Re: Gold tax location

ETFs in taxable are a PITA because most of them are setup as trusts, and trust expenses are not allowed to be part of your cost basis. So every year you have to track the expenses and then keep a special sheet so you can subtract them from your basis when you sell. Physical in taxable is a no brain...
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 2:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1561
Views: 1148872

Re: Stock scream room

Did J. Powell really say today that stocks are overvalued? I'm at work, haven't seen the video. Government shutdown in 8 days? Should all be great for stocks. Buy that dip! ;)
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 2:31 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS and Jobs Report Major Revision
Replies: 3
Views: 8450

Re: BLS and Jobs Report Major Revision

They also backdate the start of recessions by sometimes more than a year! The stock market always knows... BLS does not.
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 8:28 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Why was failed Craker Barrel logo called "woke"?
Replies: 9
Views: 22309

Re: Why was failed Craker Barrel logo called "woke"?

What I really dislike about DEI impacts on advertising and PR is that minorities and women are being cancelled, too. Case in point... Washington Redskins, and Land O Lakes Butter, Aunt Jemima Pancakes. Kind of creepy stereotypes or tropes, OK, got it. But instead of putting on positive role models a...
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 8:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Linux, continued
Replies: 76
Views: 43010

Re: Linux, continued

I just keep using Ubuntu because I'm used to it. I have a dual-boot machine Win and Lin, but it's Win 10 and can't be upgraded, I'm just never going to boot it up in Windows any longer. Our family room PC won't upgrade to 11, so that looks like a Linux box as well. Maybe I'll use it as a file server.
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 8:11 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4049
Views: 2986431

Re: The GOLD scream room

bogleheads in shambles. Gold is dumb but wait Trump is dumb and America Bad now Seajay's a busy bee over there for those getting bored So, what would cause the Fed to bring the pain like Volker? Country isn't run by Men anymore. We will never see a Volker response. We will see yield curve control, ...
by ochotona
Tue Sep 23, 2025 8:06 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What percentage of spot would you accept?
Replies: 7
Views: 13787

Re: What percentage of spot would you accept?

So I went back to Texas Precious Metals and sold my Maple Leaves out of my IRA for 1.8% below spot. That was acceptable to me.

Now I'm 8% miners, 7% actual physical in my possession, I'm levered up because of miners and exposed something like ~23% gold price movements.
by ochotona
Wed Sep 17, 2025 2:37 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control
Replies: 14
Views: 17843

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

See what you did now ?!?!?

Fed cuts 0.25%

IEF is down, TLT is down.

People are going to be mad that mortgage rates aren't going down today!