If you're a real capital allocator who actually builds things, hires people, and makes product, then you MUST be able to quantify risk and be able to show real numbers in your business plan. Uncertainty is the death of that. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/pfizer-ceo-trump-tariff-uncertainty-is-dete...

If you could hedge away all currency risk by 100%, and just look at the ETF holdings... then you have to ask yourself, why has the US outperformed? The US has really pumped money into the markets by issuance of government debt over many decades. We are so indebted, though I think we do rival France ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/oil-companies-that-trump-wants-to-drill-baby-drill-take-a-beating.html President Donald Trump’s wants to “drill, baby, drill” but his first 100 days in office have been rough for oilfield service firms. Baker Hughes and SLB see investment in drilling slowing this year...

Currency is top of mind for US investors too, at least for me it is. I should probably change my handle to "MrTactical". I think US diversification is a worthy goal over the long term, but I think you're facing a number of challenges: The US has a tremendous amount of short-term debt comin...

Everything in life is "picking". It never ends. If you go by what somewhat wrote in their book about what should go inside of a lazy, low volatility portfolio, that's allowing someone else to make the choice. That's picking by deciding to not pick. Not actively choosing is a kind of choice...

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Apr 27, 2025 3:33 pm Wasn’t the shooter Luigi?

I was thinking more of this Luigi. I spent some years in Providence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luigi_Manocchio

Hey have you seen the credit default swap data for US Treasuries? https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/united-states/5-years/ It has increased from about 30 at New Year's Day to about 52 now... not quite a double, but it really took off after 4/9/2025. Talking about central banks...

I'm trying hard, in my life, to pull people away from the silent pull of "The market is the S&P500". The S&P500 is a list of 500 large companies chosen by a human committee ranked and weighted using a market-cap weighting scheme. It's currently still highly overweighted to tech and...

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/china-trade-war-fight-with-no-winners China and the United States are locked in an unprecedented trade war, with each imposing tariffs of more than 100% on the other’s imports. On this episode of WashingtonWise, host Mike Townsend is joined by Jeffrey Kleintop, Sch...

BTW, I sold my IEMG and bought EMXC. It's doing fine. Can I ask how much time per day you actively trade? I’m sure it’s a labor of love, and since you just hit a new high overall, it’s obviously working. I’m merely curious. I spend a lot of time looking, but not trading. I look and look and look an...

I don't understand how the Treasury revaluing gold would have any effect on the world gold market price... unless they went to market with those bars to sell.

BTW, I sold my IEMG and bought EMXC. It's doing fine.

Has anyone done business with Andy Schectman's Miles Franklin company? I'm looking at their storage options. The Minnesota BBB gives them an A- grade.

I think there is collusion amongst foreign buyers to not buy. And we would deserve it, sadly. Century Bonds chatter my a$$. They are buying gold.

Oh sure. Always.

Incredible above $3400

Daily check in... portfolio hit all-time-high on Friday, due to gold, miners, and exUS stocks. Retirement is on-target for December.

glennds wrote: ↑Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:32 am There's not much the Fed can do with regard to rate policy, but it may have to step in and become the supplemental or replacement buyer of Treasuries in order to prevent runaway yield.

Note to self... if 30-year hits 15% again like in 1980, buy it.

If you arent going to cap weight, you need to explain why Nvidia et al are mispriced by the investors looking at their numbers. Arnott's fund has slightly underperformed the market last 20 years. But theres always an issue with private managers front-running their funds when they know a rebalance i...

I just sold my short-term corporate bonds, which I considered to be "nearly cash", and bought FXF the Swiss Franc ETF. I didn't want to hold the currencies of jurisdictions that have economically weak nations in them (many Euro States, also UK) or have unique exposure to "geopolitical...

This thing is going to correct, maybe by a lot, it can't be going up like an arrow.

The problem is... if the government bonds get crushed due to a confidence crisis, then all bonds (and stocks) will be re-priced. Holding AA AAA corporates OK if your corporate issuers keep paying and you hold to maturity and ignore the mark-to-market noise.

Over the past 9 days, when you compare TIP vs IEF, STIP vs SHY, it seems Ms. Market is voting for disinflation, not inflation over 2 and 7-8 year timeframes. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SHY,STIP,IEF,TIP However, 9 days is really short, could be noise, if we check back and it's still ...

I doesn't take much time to manage this... Stockcharts.com, PerfCharts option, you can pull off the 1, 3, 6, 12 month total returns for all of your tickers in a few minutes. Trade once a month. The hard part is sticking to it, second-guessing yourself, letting the short-term ruin your long-term plan...

As everyone knows, I get in and out of positions using momentum, as defined and used in the paper A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation . Let's consider the two basic fixed-income safe-haven assets... T-Bills (SGOV or BIL) and the 10-year Treasury (IEF). If we compare SGOV to any non-...