Search found 2117 matches

by ochotona
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fear is the mind-killer
Replies: 37
Views: 577

Re: Fear is the mind-killer

flyingpylon wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:02 pm
ochotona wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:33 am
But if we ever get to another March 2009 situation,
How will you know?
How can you not know? Stuff will be flying all over the place like a tornado hit it. You'll know, the question is, what will you do?
by ochotona
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 449
Views: 82172

Re: Stock scream room

November: Ned Davis is 50% equities now
by ochotona
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fear is the mind-killer
Replies: 37
Views: 577

Re: Fear is the mind-killer

I'm really happy with 40% stocks 10% gold 10% cash 40% bonds I haven't lost any sleep over the portfolio. I have been mentally inching in that direction for a while. I still like the HBPP but I am not in a position where I need to be ultra-conservative... yet. Having said that, I have doubts about ...
by ochotona
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fear is the mind-killer
Replies: 37
Views: 577

Re: Fear is the mind-killer

I'm really happy with

40% stocks
10% gold
10% cash
40% bonds

I haven't lost any sleep over the portfolio.
by ochotona
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 66
Views: 3717

Re: What's going on with silver?

Gold silver ratio 85-ish. I'm not buying anything though. Just holding still.
by ochotona
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 27
Views: 1023

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

"Deep cash" is a bit of an odd concept... I started out with the idea of I bonds as deep cash, but I think it makes more sense to think of them as tier 2 of an emergency fund. Tier 1 being whatever amount of liquid cash in your savings account or a money market account that makes sense to you. They...
by ochotona
Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 27
Views: 1023

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

8 week Bills just came out a few days ago.
by ochotona
Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: GEM Backtest Extended to 1950
Replies: 23
Views: 1220

Re: GEM Backtest Extended to 1950

If we go sideways from here my portfolio could go to bonds in Dec or Jan...
by ochotona
Sat Nov 03, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 27
Views: 1023

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

"Deep Cash" is that amount of cash above and beyond what is likely to be needed under the worst likely personal crisis situations. Where only 5% of scenarios would require more cash, for example. It's a guess, it's imprecise. Because of my job in the crappy oil industry, I have an emergency fund equ...
by ochotona
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 27
Views: 1023

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

It's tax deferred, no interest rate risk. Zero duration. It's more like an inflation protected CD.
by ochotona
Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
Replies: 185
Views: 27261

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

No change to the GEM portfolio for November 2018. Still 100% in US stock ETFs like SCHX, IVV, VOO, etc. IVV had a total return over the past year of +7.34%, which is a buy signal. But, it is below it's own 200 day moving average, which is a sell signal. Which one is right? Both one year total return...
by ochotona
Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: GEM Backtest Extended to 1950
Replies: 23
Views: 1220

Re: GEM Backtest Extended to 1950

Kbg wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:58 pm
Is that the 12m signal?
I need the 12m total return to exceed 2.33%, the 90-day T-Bill rate.