Search found 2433 matches

by ochotona
Sun May 26, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111867

Re: Stock scream room

I'm going to paper trade this one
by ochotona
Sun May 26, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111867

Re: Stock scream room

Aw perfect, thanks! My objective is to find out when the really oversized declines occur... the ones we remember for decades and decades. I'd love to side-step those if there is meaningful seasonality + anticipatory technical indicators.

Yup... September October, bad moon rising for some reason.
by ochotona
Sun May 26, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111867

Re: Stock scream room

1984, what was your data source? Sep / Oct seem really to be bad months overall, I agree. Maybe one could use some indicators like MACD to determine whether taking action during Sep / Oct is justified, and for short periods of time like this, I'm thinking maybe buying puts from time to time would wo...
by ochotona
Sat May 25, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 19
Views: 433

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

I run into so many Baby Boomers slightly older than me whose investment worldview is so firmly planted in the years when they were young and hopeful... the 1980s, the 1990s. They are still aggressively long US equities, they scoff at gold, for them it will be Three Strikes You're Out... Tech Bubble,...
by ochotona
Fri May 24, 2019 8:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 19
Views: 433

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

stuper1 wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 6:41 pm
Isn't this like lying on your death bed and wondering why you paid all those homeowner's insurance premiums when your house never burned down? You buy insurance just in case something bad happens, but that doesn't mean that you really want something bad to happen.
Yes!
by ochotona
Fri May 24, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 19
Views: 433

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

-I hold most of my gold in tax-deferred ETFs, and therefore not as much physical as I would like. Gold ETFs seem to have performed its uncorrelated role in these “normal” times, but they have not really been tested in a serious crisis. Will they be tested and will they survive? -I predict that the ...
by ochotona
Fri May 24, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111867

Re: Stock scream room

Sell in May Go Away reference: https://stocktradersalmanac.com/Strategy.aspx Seems well-paired to an HBPP philosophy. Rules-based, simple, infrequent actions, low cost. The ETF would be DIA, seems to work better with Dow than S&P 500. Backtested to 1950... I can't verify with PV.com I just tested Se...
by ochotona
Tue May 21, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 278
Views: 15116

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

If you had a Ph.D. in computer science from MIT and came from an impoverished 3rd world country and had a choice between taking an American passport and a Chinese passport, which would you choose? If you had a $10,000,000 PP, what % would you invest in the PRC vs. the USA? (Come to think of it, we ...
by ochotona
Sat May 18, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 594
Views: 89843

Re: YouTube Junkie

Lance Roberts' YouTube

https://youtu.be/Hr11Kz0CD3w

Should be in Stock Scream Room too
by ochotona
Sat May 18, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 86
Views: 10035

Re: What's going on with silver?

Andrew Hecht wrote on Seeking Alpha: "As the quarterly chart highlights, the range over the past forty-five years has been from 15.47 to 93.18 with an average of 54.325. When the price relationship moves below 55:1, silver tends to be historically expensive compared to the price of gold. The last ti...
by ochotona
Tue May 14, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 86
Views: 10035

Re: What's going on with silver?

This is amazing... a FB memory popped up for me from 2011. May 7, 2011 at 7:26 AM · "About a week or two ago I told a young fellow that silver was going hyperbolic, to sell his silver holdings. I don't think he listened to me." I don't even remember who I might have spoken to. I don't remember even ...
by ochotona
Tue May 14, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111867

Re: Stock scream room

I'm a long bond and gold chicken. For a split second I read that as you being long chicken , makes me very hungry this morning. It seems like you buy gold all the time, though, Ocho. I was cleaning up an old phone -- just bought a new one after five years. Pixel 3a, whoo O0 -- and I saw some offlin...