Search found 3686 matches

by ochotona
Wed Sep 10, 2025 9:41 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 23
Views: 136049

Re: Those of you who track silver

FYI the 1980 silver high in 2025 Dollars is $192.50

If we ever get into that territory... you might want to sell some.
by ochotona
Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Those of you who track silver
Replies: 23
Views: 136049

Re: Those of you who track silver

Jordan Roy-Bryne has studied past silver bull markets, and points out that it's entirely possible that 12-18 months after gold breaks $50 it could be in the $90s. He shows analog charts. It's just in the last few days on YouTube, "The Daily Gold" channel.
by ochotona
Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:06 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3973
Views: 2805121

Re: The GOLD scream room

If you want to rebalance gold, wait until the gold price dips below its own 200 day moving average. Don't check more than once a month. Check at the end of the month, the last trading day. You won't get the peak, you never can, but loss of 200 day MA could indicate a broken uptrend.
by ochotona
Wed Sep 03, 2025 10:01 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold IRAs
Replies: 2
Views: 549

Re: Gold IRAs

I've had the Gold Star Trust Roth IRA since February 2018. They moved from Canyon TX to Amarillo TX after their parent bank was acquired by another bank. It has been OK, but the customer service isn't like what you'll find at Schwab. There are lots of PDF fillable forms to deal with, instead of onli...
by ochotona
Tue Sep 02, 2025 8:16 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3973
Views: 2805121

Re: The GOLD scream room

C'mon $4000
by ochotona
Sun Aug 31, 2025 6:11 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control
Replies: 10
Views: 2980

Re: Long-term yields keep rising as Trump amps up fight for Fed control

I don't see any way out of it. They would have to let inflation run hot and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, not just the short end, by the Fed buying more and more and more and more and more longer term Treasury bonds, so that they could default by inflation... pay the bondholder at ...
by ochotona
Sun Aug 31, 2025 6:02 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Why was failed Craker Barrel logo called "woke"?
Replies: 6
Views: 2425

Re: Why was failed Craker Barrel logo called "woke"?

There was much more to it than just the logo. https://x.com/robbystarbuck/status/1959097759350378743?s=61 Well then, you can't buy from Chevron and Shell, or take Ozempic / Wegovy from Denmark, drive a European car like a Benz or BMW, you can't fly on Airbus, etc etc etc. Your electrical company ca...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 27, 2025 10:44 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Why was failed Craker Barrel logo called "woke"?
Replies: 6
Views: 2425

Why was failed Craker Barrel logo called "woke"?

It was a terrible, depersonalized, emotionless design, and say that even I have only eaten there once, not a repeat customer. But why was it called "woke"? This leads me to believe that "woke" is just a catch-all bin for anything that some people don't like.
by ochotona
Wed Aug 27, 2025 10:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 6
Views: 2398

Re: Gold tax location

Taxable gold: pay "uncapped marginal" taxes on the money it cost to buy the gold, I think where we differ is I don't value tax-deferment very much at all, maybe it's not about the gold at all. Given my asset size, and age, I see tax-deferred assets as a liability, and I'm trying to conver...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 26, 2025 3:07 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Forum Crickets.
Replies: 24
Views: 70154

Re: Forum Crickets.

State Owned Enterprises just stink all the way around. The owner is totally conflicted and can't actually regulate.
by ochotona
Tue Aug 26, 2025 3:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 6
Views: 2398

Re: Gold tax location

Why would I want to subject money removed from an IRA to be taxed at an uncapped marginal rate when the simple act of making it "taxable gold" caps my marginal tax rate at 28%? Yes, you have to have a great income to get there, based on 2025 brackets, but I'm concerned about 2035 brackets....
by ochotona
Tue Aug 26, 2025 10:09 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3973
Views: 2805121

Re: The GOLD scream room

The gold market suddenly took off to the upside last night when Trump announced that Lisa Cook was fired. I think the market is interpreting it as another attack on Fed independence. TLT interest rate is up today, but not IEF.
by ochotona
Tue Aug 26, 2025 10:05 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 6
Views: 2398

Re: Gold tax location

For those of you who own Gold in ETF form ... which of the following is your preferred tax location and why? 2) Traditional IRA Trad IRA could be a bad place... because remember, even with taxable accounts gold is treated as Ordinary Income except the marginal tax rate is capped at 28%. With a Trad...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 26, 2025 9:54 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 2466

Re: Gold ETF

I'd go with IAUM or GLDM
by ochotona
Wed Aug 20, 2025 1:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cell Phone
Replies: 43
Views: 13371

Re: Cell Phone

People at my office are going to the restroom talking on their cell phones. The splish-splash of the urinals... the flushing sounds... the groans and fart sounds of stall users... Who does that? Isn't that terribly embarrassing to themselves and rude to the party on the other end? They need to be se...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 20, 2025 11:20 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: What would it take to get to 1982 stock market valuation levels?
Replies: 0
Views: 3360

What would it take to get to 1982 stock market valuation levels?

Jesse Felder posted a chart of the S&P500 from the 1920s until today, showing that the best linear fit of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 6.8%. Seems low, but here is the image... what do you think? https://drive.google.com/file/d/1begE8rb6nDpDN3IPRG3hJlm9LTM_2TBW/view?usp=sharing So I won...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 13, 2025 10:17 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars
Replies: 12
Views: 3930

Re: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars

So what US government form does the Chinese Communist Party fill out to send money to the US Treasury?
by ochotona
Tue Aug 12, 2025 10:01 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?
Replies: 12
Views: 5710

Re: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?

but CPI is also the basis for Social Security COLA increases and many other metrics that have a zillion eyes on them. Whatever a defensive allocation for 2025 looks like it doesn't look like the PP of the 1980's IMHO. For example... how tax brackets get indexed! If they rachet up too slowly, it's a...
by ochotona
Sun Aug 10, 2025 1:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?
Replies: 12
Views: 5710

Re: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?

TIPS & I-Bonds investors face a ‘sky is falling’ moment

Can U.S. economic data be trusted?

https://tipswatch.com/2025/08/10/tips-i ... ng-moment/
by ochotona
Fri Aug 08, 2025 10:30 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars
Replies: 12
Views: 3930

Re: New tariffs on Swiss kilo and 100toz gold bars

That was pretty jaw-dropping. It's an attempt at capital flow control. They don't want organizations settling in gold. They want to push them through SWIFT and the US Dollar. However, if a US firm has a trade surplus with a foreign entity, and would like to settle in gold by having gold sent to them...
by ochotona
Fri Aug 08, 2025 10:23 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market
Replies: 48
Views: 130172

Re: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market

Equal weight or maybe a more thoughtful approach is FNDB or FNDX. They own Total US Market or S&P500 respectively, but the weights are based on company fundamentals. Yes, they have underperformed during the bubble formation period. If you want to avoid the bubble, you have to avoid it. You can't...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 06, 2025 9:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cell Phone
Replies: 43
Views: 13371

Re: Cell Phone

My phone allows me to limit charging to 80% of capacity. That should extend life
by ochotona
Wed Aug 06, 2025 9:47 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?
Replies: 12
Views: 5710

Re: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?

and perhaps adding some dollar-hedged international bonds to nominal Treasuries. If you want to diversify away from the US Dollar assets, why would you want dollar-hedged international bonds which remove currency fluctuations? That's like making sure you pee in the far side of the swimming pool. Ju...