Search found 2222 matches

by ochotona
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 481
Views: 95152

Re: Stock scream room

There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem ...
by ochotona
Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2203
Views: 349690

Re: The GOLD scream room

Kbg wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:26 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:45 pm
I'm thinking June 8th...

Really. Mid-June. Might as well pick a specific date. ;)
He's off. It will be July 11th. ;)
6/31/2019
by ochotona
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Question on duration vs maturity
Replies: 4
Views: 137

Re: Question on duration vs maturity

They actually back-calculate the duration of a bond fund by observing market price change as a function of interest rate change. It's empirical, not bottoms up based on what they own. Complicated stuff.
by ochotona
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: There seems to be an advantage to Roth conversion now until 12/31/2025
Replies: 95
Views: 19177

Re: There seems to be an advantage to Roth conversion now until 12/31/2025

If the Democrats take over in 2020, you'll have wished you Roth converted when you could, after they rip out the tax cuts on party line vote.
by ochotona
Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:59 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 481
Views: 95152

Re: Stock scream room

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am
Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
Malinvestment... Everything?

Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?
by ochotona
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 481
Views: 95152

Re: Stock scream room

Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes” GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019 https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Irpog1-Nc0ZWZEk4RzdkN25QZ1VkcWg5Y0ZvUTJzQ080/view?usp=sharing Key Points ■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. sto...
by ochotona
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Question on duration vs maturity
Replies: 4
Views: 137

Re: Question on duration vs maturity

My understanding is that for portfolio risk, duration matters. Maturity is a calendar date, but because not all bonds are created equal (default risk, call risk), duration is related to but not equal to maturity. Only for Treasuries are they the same.
by ochotona
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2203
Views: 349690

Re: The GOLD scream room

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:45 pm
I'm thinking June 8th...

Really. Mid-June. Might as well pick a specific date. ;)
Pick it with a dart and a calendar. He said June 15. I'm going to be in awe of him on June 15 or LMAO.
by ochotona
Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.
Replies: 7
Views: 190

Re: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.

Straight PP leveraged Something PP risk parity-ish leveraged With DualMo for the stock component leveraged A PP with no cash (e.g. 33.33% to the other three) with the assumption you have your own cash elsewhere And the above with different leverage amounts 1.25, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 When Shiller's CAPE is...
by ochotona
Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2203
Views: 349690

Re: The GOLD scream room

He's an oddity, but even oddities could be right, if only purely by accident. Charles Nenner says to look for gold to make a low in mid-June 2019, then head higher. I mean, why not? I need to buy ~1% more gold, to make my pile 12.5%, which would fit into my ambition to have half-HBPP and half-VP.
by ochotona
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: How to withdraw cash in retirement?
Replies: 6
Views: 608

Re: How to withdraw cash in retirement?

"and any less frequently means more money gaining zero interest in the current account (deposit interest rates are low at present, but maybe not forever)." Jesus Mary and Joseph, get thee to an online bank which pays 2% or more in savings. We don't want to hear about how you've banked at Wells / BA ...
by ochotona
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.
Replies: 7
Views: 190

Re: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.

Awful. One of you please start a real HBPP ETF and charge 10 basis points above the costs of the underlying ETFs.