Search found 2465 matches

by ochotona
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tankers attacked
Replies: 17
Views: 307

Re: Tankers attacked

Retired General Wesley Clark, in his book, "Winning Modern Wars" (2003), describes his conversation with an officer in the Pentagon shortly after 9/11 regarding a plan to initiate a succession of attacks upon seven identified Middle Eastern countries: "As I went back through the Pentagon in Novembe...
by ochotona
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 371
Views: 52750

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

iShares has a set of lower volatility ETFs which could produce better GEM signals which are less "whippy" than using regular S&P 500 and ACWI ex-US ETFs. These are USMV and ACWV. Let's compare them to VOO and VEU. Unfortunately, the history is very limited, only spans 2013-2019. USMV/ACWV CAGR 13.19...
by ochotona
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on Emerging Markets?
Replies: 7
Views: 512

Re: Thoughts on Emerging Markets?

I just noticed GMO updated their 7-YEAR ASSET CLASS REAL RETURN FORECASTS on 4/30/19. Emerging Market Value they predict will return 7.7% real over the next seven years. That's a lot of sevens there. That said, I can't find any large, liquid ETFs advertised as EM Value. This article IDs some possibl...
by ochotona
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes
Replies: 13
Views: 323

Re: % of gold asset in ETF or CEF for rebalancing purposes

ETF vs Physical - I wish AAAU had come out long before I opened my GoldStar IRA account. After a number of years go by, I'll decide whether to fold up GoldStar and bring it home to Schwab as AAAU. I don't think you get much more secure than they will deliver metal to do if you desire, and it's in a ...
by ochotona
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yearly balancing or 15/35?
Replies: 13
Views: 478

Re: Yearly balancing or 15/35?

Why not check frequently... every month? Three of the assets are quite volatile; you won't see the volatility if your sampling interval is long.
by ochotona
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tankers attacked
Replies: 17
Views: 307

Re: Tankers attacked

Sorry posting from my phone very early hard to add URLs.

Notice how gold slept and oil only slightly stirred... it's not registering as a big event.
by ochotona
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tankers attacked
Replies: 17
Views: 307

Tankers attacked

Did we do it to justify a war with Iran and more payola for defense contractors?
by ochotona
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 643
Views: 115193

Re: Stock scream room

I can't help thinking that going from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper in a few days isn't a good thing.
by ochotona
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs
Replies: 90
Views: 1939

Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Now we hear everything Mexico agreed to was already in negotiation and in the pipeline for a long while. Which makes the entire last week just a stunt. I just can't stop thinking... "he's trying to manufacture dips to buy". And doing very well.
by ochotona
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 371
Views: 52750

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

I am trying to make peace with whipsaws. I looked at using 10-mo MA to go in and out of the S&P500 and intermediate Treasuries since 1987, so 32+ years. 18 whipsaws, median return of that set of whips was -2.08% compared to buy-and-hold. 17 of 18 whipsaws had a return equal to or less than 0%. Some ...
by ochotona
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs
Replies: 90
Views: 1939

Re: Immediate 5% across-the-board Mexican tariffs

Not to speak out of turn, but it sounds like you should be at peace anyway. You have a plan, you know exactly what you're going to do, it's going to happen when it happens. Everything else is out of your control and not worth worrying about. The stock is worth what it's worth when it sells. The tee...
by ochotona
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2483
Views: 400672

Re: The GOLD scream room

Not a time to buy