Search found 81 matches

by Mike59
Wed May 18, 2022 8:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1079940

Re: The GOLD scream room

To me gold is more insurance against financial calamity and less an inflation hedge. I like the last post about small amounts of inflation being an "annoyance". We live in a highly manipulated market where everything remains controlled and stable, the Fed appears to have the steering wheel. We may h...
by Mike59
Wed May 18, 2022 8:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: coping with a LTT bear market
Replies: 7
Views: 836

coping with a LTT bear market

It's interesting to read all the posts about bonds that ask how to compensate for the crash we've witnessed, sentiment seems to be extremely poor. I see ideas floating around such as switching to lower duration bonds , abandoning the permanent portfolio 4x25% structure, going international etc. Is e...
by Mike59
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money
Replies: 28
Views: 21640

Re: I'm feeling some paralysis about new money

Having been through a couple of cycles and having done a ton of research, I can tell you that investing up front is statistically most likely to return you the highest. You're losing out on bond yield, stock dividends and capital gains on the sidelines, ultimately you miss out on the power of compou...
by Mike59
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: The Single Best Equity ETF for Canadians
Replies: 2
Views: 7433

Re: The Single Best Equity ETF for Canadians

The ETF is an interesting idea but I feel there is too much Canadian exposure for a domestic investor. By CAPE ratio Canada is over 20 and has been more overvalued than Europe and EM for some time, for this reason I have no interest unless the market took a serious haircut. With the US ratio being e...
by Mike59
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 210
Views: 129729

Re: What's going on with silver?

In my experience precious metals trading is best done by relative valuation compared to a long term mean. I use a 50 month SMA. As it stands silver is on my watch list and I would say it's neutral (close to it's 50 month SMA), I've been loading up on Platinum in the last year in my VP and I see much...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Viability of HBPP with perpetually low interest rate Fed
Replies: 21
Views: 10248

Re: Viability of HBPP with perpetually low interest rate Fed

Concerns about perpetually low interest rates are perfectly valid, they can go lower, and may even go negative as you've stated. The problem is- what if you align yourself for this expectation and are wrong? I'd rather have a portfolio that takes my emotions out of it and forces me to mechanically t...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 210
Views: 129729

Re: What's going on with silver?

kitco close 2019/04/24: $15.00 currently sits at $14.94 Problem with silver is that I love it, and you're not supposed to fall in love with investments right? :-[ I still have too much from the $20-50 era and added it to my PP as along term holding so the losses aren't realized. Have done much bette...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on Emerging Markets?
Replies: 24
Views: 10209

Re: Thoughts on Emerging Markets?

From a CAPE/Schiller ratio standpoint, EM is where you want to be if you're looking for higher long term returns. I've bought nothing but EM and Developed Europe for my PP for the last couple of years, both are looking a little richer than I'd like right now (as with most world equities). The true o...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Uranium
Replies: 2
Views: 1794

Uranium

Uranium stocks are down 90% off their all time highs. Anyone else eyeing this ? I own the components of URA individually (Cameco/Nexgen/Uranium Participation) with exposure in the US, especially with this talk of Trump looking to put Tarrifs on foreign uranium. As I've heard on some podcasts, either...
by Mike59
Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Canada EWC ETF a value play?
Replies: 14
Views: 8347

Re: Canada EWC ETF a value play?

Canadian investor here and I'd discourage buying EWC. Canadian banks are betting heavily on Canadian real estate which is probably one of the world's largest bubbles right now, I would steer far away if you're looking at a value play. On a more technical basis, CAPE ratios suggest Canada is still ne...
by Mike59
Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP performance for Q1 2018
Replies: 19
Views: 11059

Re: PP performance for Q1 2018

Another Canadian here, I run a slightly modified Permanent portfolio, interesting how currency, hedging and exposure can tilt the results. The figures below do not count dividends... Gold: CGL.C (unhedged gold etf): +4.76% Stocks (split between Developed europe and emerging markets without any US or...
by Mike59
Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 205
Views: 77982

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

so, this story drags on, the discounts are ridiculous compared to NAV (which I'm ok with, I've stacked CEF recently at -12%, looking to hit a rebalancing band soon and throw some cash at GTU which sits at -6%). Surprisingly  my precious metal positions are in the green... Can anyone help translate t...
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic
Replies: 7
Views: 3296

Re: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

US S&P futures down -1.5% , ouch!  If this sticks overnight it's the most excitement /volatility I've seen in a long time, takes me back to August 2011 fiscal cliff days...  ;D
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux
Replies: 40
Views: 12208

Re: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux

I pulled out the old laptop, and used a puppy linux liveCD to test. I think this might be a reasonable option while I explore alternatives [or not]. I think I need to wipe WindowsXP and install a full version of linux on the HD. I am not that familiar with the difference between all the distros. Do...
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic
Replies: 7
Views: 3296

Re: Greece to close banks and stock market amidst financial panic

Libertarian666 wrote: I'm shocked! shocked, that gambling is going on there.
Of course this won't have any effect on gold... or will it?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

moonshot straight up, over $10 at the open .... Should be an interesting week
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: America's Global Image
Replies: 27
Views: 8018

Re: America's Global Image

What the FUCK, Canada? Take it from an average Canadian, most of us have a favorable view of the US, even if we differ on some political views. Quebec is the primary reason for that figure, it has about 10 million people (maybe 1/3 of the country and perhaps reflects 1/3 of the hate in that poll) ,...
by Mike59
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux
Replies: 40
Views: 12208

Re: Chromebook, tablet, or Linux

I have a 2 year old acer win8 notebook I got on sale for about 300 , Windows 8 junked it, and it got worse with every update. I installed a dual-boot with linux and at least it's usable. You can play around with it for free, and it might buy you some time. Xubuntu, it's lean and light- not perfect, ...
by Mike59
Sat May 30, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 205
Views: 77982

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

Per some of my other posts I've averaged into GTU quite nicely during the discount (I recall some days below 10% from NAV), I'm hoping this doesn't go through... If it goes through or hits NAV before the deal I'm considering selling the GTU and moving to CEF. I figure the nice 7% or so gain I've mad...
by Mike59
Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What Drives Gold
Replies: 15
Views: 9036

Re: What Drives Gold

Gold's price isn't simply driven by the supply-demand ratio, the dollar's movements, inflation, oil price, geopolitical events and so on.  The market's way of functioning is far more complex and less transparent. Brief and brilliant summary. It climbs a wall of worry, and anything can serve as that...
by Mike59
Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:59 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold Junior Miners (GDXJ)
Replies: 8
Views: 4299

Re: Gold Junior Miners (GDXJ)

Thanks for posting, nice charts and helpful insight into the price action.

I once loved these funds (including GLDX and some individual gold stocks) too much, I know better now  (I think it represented a sickness, OCD?) and think I'll stay away even when they go back up 
:-\
by Mike59
Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Help me choose a secondary computer
Replies: 50
Views: 16028

Re: Help me choose a secondary computer

If you go with a cheap laptop, for goodness sakes get one with Linux on it. ^ THIS! I've been so frustrated by every windows machine I've ever owned, I inevitably end up installing Ubuntu. Thankfully you can now smoothly dual-boot Ubuntu 14 and Windows 8, I just hit a button upon startup and bam I'...
by Mike59
Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:42 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Never have long positions in UGLD or DGLD
Replies: 5
Views: 3512

Re: Never have long positions in UGLD or DGLD

(I couldn't see ochotona's article cause I don't have  password, pardon if it's mentioned there) but a point against levered ETFs would be sheer bad luck (the sequence of returns) . Imagine a month in the red for more than half of the trading days. No one seems to talk about it, but it probably acco...
by Mike59
Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Precious metals historical data shootout + Platinum /Palladium:
Replies: 5
Views: 2939

Precious metals historical data shootout + Platinum /Palladium:

My research question: is palladium (or platinum)  worth a look as part of the gold component in the PP? (I can already hear the resounding "NO!" from the chorus of purists  :D ) In a bout of self indulgence, I compiled year over year return data from 1970-2015 for the 4 major precious metals (Januar...
by Mike59
Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Individual shares ownership vs. index funds
Replies: 21
Views: 12416

Re: Individual shares ownership vs. index funds

Pointedstick wrote: people who think they can do this are mostly delusional narcissists.
LOL, I must be under their narcissistic spell,  is this what has me drawn to the business channels for entertainment?!